一种智能预测方法在电梯群控系统交通分析中的应用

交通流预测是电梯群控系统的重要组成部分 .将基于神经网络的时间序列预测理论应用到电梯群控系统的交通分析中 ,构造了一种神经网络时间序列交通流预测模型 .仿真实验表明 ,这种交通流智能预测方法是有效的     

混沌时间序列单变量和多变量重构的预测比较

提出了多变量混沌时间序列相空间延迟重构中延迟时间间隔和嵌入维数的选取方法，给出了多变量混沌时间序列的局部平均预测法，局部线性预测法和BP神经网络预测法等3种非线性预测方法．通过Lorenz系统的仿真计算表明，无论用3种非线性预测方法中的哪一种，多变量混沌时间序列要比单变量混沌时间序列的预测误差小得多，即使前的数据长度只有后的一半，前的预测误差也要小很多．另外从预测误差最小的角度验证了多变量混沌时间序列相空间延迟重构中延迟时间间隔和嵌入维数选取方法的有效性．     

The influence of an afternoon nap on the endurance performance of trained runners

The effectiveness of a nap as a recovery strategy for endurance exercise is unknown and therefore the present study investigated the effect of napping on endurance exercise performance. Eleven trained male runners completed this randomised crossover study. On two occasions, runners completed treadmill running for 30?min at 75% ?O_2max in the morning, returning that evening to run for 20?min at 60% ?O_2max, and then to exhaustion at 90% ?O_2max. On one trial, runners had an afternoon nap approximately 90?min before the evening exercise (NAP) whilst on the other, runners did not (CON). All runners napped (20?±?10?min), but time to exhaustion (TTE) was not improved in all runners (NAP 596?±?148?s vs. CON 589?±?216?s, P?=?.83). Runners that improved TTE after the nap slept less at night than those that did not improve TTE (night-time sleep 6.4?±?0.7?h vs. 7.5?±?0.4?h, P?r^{2 ?} =??0.76, P?=?.001). In runners that improved TTE, ratings of perceived exertion (RPE) were lower during the TTE on NAP than CON compared to runners that did not improve (?0.4?±?0.6 vs. 0?±?0, P?=?.05). Reduced exercising sense of effort (RPE) may account for the improved TTE after the nap. In conclusion, a short afternoon nap improves endurance performance in runners that obtain less than 7?h night-time sleep.     

中华文艺复兴与“文化融合”

中华文艺复兴是振兴中华民族、开启民族新时代、重振民族辉煌的重要途径。欧洲文艺复兴的历史经验值得认真学习和借鉴。“文化融合”是文化发展的重要规律，任何民族文化的发展和创新都离不开文化融合的历史进程。中华传统文化的优秀成分作为其核心和本质在文化融合的过程中不会被融化和消解，会在新的文化形态的形成过程中不断改造外来文化并随着时代的前进和社会进步被赋予新的内容。新的文化形态的形成和建立与时代有着密切的关系，与社会经济基础有着密切的关系。继承发扬中华优秀传统文化，吸收各民族进步文化的优秀成果，充分体现社会主义时代精神的崭新的文化体系，一定会建立起来。     

从职业网球运动看超小周期“多课次”的训练模式

本文通过查阅大量文献资料,结合当前职业网球运动员训练及参赛周期特征与传统大周期训练模式产生的冲突,对新周期形态与训练定式——超小周期＂多课次＂训练模式进行探讨,以便于能给教练员和运动员提供实质性的建议和思考。     

基于触发词优先级的事件抽取研究

本文将触发词分为时间类和非时间类,对触发词提取算法进行改进,以一定量导电塑料行业新闻为基础语料构建两类触发词词表,并采取时间类触发词优先的事件句识别策略。基于该触发词词表对导电塑料和太阳能行业新闻语料进行事件句识别算法有效性实验,开放测试的召回率和准确率分别超过98%和95%。该结果表明：将触发词进行基于时间特性的分类,并优先使用时间类触发词提取事件句,能取得显著的效果。     

Modeling Self-Regulation as a Process Usinga Multiple Time-Scale Multiphase Latent Basis Growth Model

Measurement burst designs, wherein individuals are measured intensively during multiple periods (i.e., bursts), have created new opportunities for studying change at multiple time scales. This article develops a model that might be useful in situations where the functional form of short-term change is unknown, might consist of multiple phases, and might change over the long term. Specifically, we combine measurement of intraindividual entropy, a latent basis growth model, a multiphase growth model, and a growth model with covariates into a unified framework that could help accommodate the complexity of patterns that emerge in multiple time-scale categorical data streams. Empirical data from a longitudinal study of young children’s behavior during laboratory tasks designed to induce frustration are used to illustrate the utility of the proposed model for simultaneously describing intratask (short-term) change in self-regulation and developmental (long-term) shifts in intratask change.     

Gender and IT in the Household: Evolving Patterns of Internet Use in the United States

Information technology (IT)—computers and related technologies—is the latest technology to enter the household. Like other technologies, gender is a major factor in its adoption and use as well as its perceived usefulness. Unlike prior household technologies, the computer's entry into the household has followed a different pattern. Early statistics revealed a vast gender divide, with men using computers and related technologies much more in the household. More recent statistics show a narrowing of the divide, perhaps even a reversal, particularly in the United States, with women outnumbering men in the access to and use of the Internet. In this article, the role of gender and its relationship with Internet use in the home are reviewed. In addition to overall adoption and access, the review focuses on specific Internet applications and examines the factors that contribute to gender differences in adoption and use of computers and Internet applications in the home.     

中国华东及其周边地区NDVI对气温和降水的季节响应

地表植被与大气的相互作用过程是地球科学领域的研究重点和热点。本文基于SPOTVGT-NDVI数据和气象站点的气温和降水资料,采用时滞相关分析法,研究了1998年-2011年我国华东及其周边地区四季NDVI对气温和降水的时空响应特征。结果表明,在整个研究区,气温对NDVI的影响大于降水,NDVI与气温在夏季和秋季相关性较高,与降水在秋季和春季相关性较高,冬季NDVI与气温和降水相关性都最低。NDVI对气温响应的滞后期在春季和秋季较短,对降水响应的滞后期在冬季较短,夏季NDVI对气温和降水响应的滞后期都较长。在冬季、春季和秋季,NDVI对气温和降水最大相关系数的空间分布在研究区的南北部差异不明显,在夏季则具有较明显的南北差异。NDVI对气温变化响应的滞后期在春季、夏季和秋季具有较明显的南北差异,对降水变化响应的滞后期除在夏季具有一定的南北差异外,在其他季节空间分布规律性不显著。     

基于活动绩效分析的项目进度与成本管理方法

挣值管理方法忽视可交付物质量和工作间的逻辑关系对项目绩效测量和完工预测的影响,存在绩效偏差来源不清和进度度量不直观等问题。考虑可交付物质量及活动的时间特性,提出一种活动描述的元组模型,分析已完工和当前活动的绩效,进而计算路径进度绩效,据此调整项目的关键路径;同时,按照人力资源投入计划将活动分类,根据同类活动绩效预测项目完工尚需的时间和成本。一个移动物流社交网络系统开发项目管理实践验证了改进的挣值管理方法的可行性和有效性,符合项目实际情况。改进的方法适合大型及复杂项目的管理工作。