国际石油价格波动特点及影响因素的实证分析

实证研究表明，国际油价变动特点可以用AR(1)模型描述。对油价和主要影响因素的长短期关系的检验表明，OPEC产量、OECD国家消费需求等是影响石油价格的长期因素，弹性系数分别是-8.845%、7.19%，短期影响很小；中国石油消费需求短期对油价产生了正向影响，弹性为3.99%。国际油价对长期均衡的偏离大约需要1.63～1.88个季度得到修正。实证结果说明，国际油价的长期走势仍然是由最根本的供求关系等经济因素决定的，短期油价变动主要源于突发性非经济因素。AR(1)模型和由OPEC产量、OECD国家消费需求、OECD库存等构成的因果关系模型相比，后者对于预测国际油价有更好的效果。中国国内油价对国际油价存在滞后效应，但出口价格已与国际油价同步。中国基本石油战略的构建应该建立在对长期经济因素的分析和预测之上，并建立现代石油市场体系，改革石油定价机制。     

中国耕地总量动态平衡的数量和质量分析

耕地作为土地的精华对我国农业和国民经济发展起着不可替代的基础性作用，为解决中国日益短缺的耕地资源和粮食安全问题，自1997年以来，我国实行了耕地总量动态平衡的土地管理政策，但耕地资源转化为非农建设用地的猛烈趋势仍缺乏有效的调控。基于耕地总量动态平衡的新视角和中国耕地资源变化态势和构成分析，提出了反映耕地总体产出能力的标准系数以及相对应的标准耕地面积，并进一步分析了我国耕地统计面积和标准面积的时空差异状况，从数量和质量两个方面重新考察了我国耕地总量动态平衡状况，并据此提出了实现中国耕地总量动态平衡的对策措施。     

是渴望"血性"还是缅怀"血腥"

作家和学对当下生活的认识和判断是一个美学问题，也是一个伦理学问题。对人类历史的无视和对人类一般道德立场的挑战都不是作家和学的特权。美化人类历史的罪恶更不是作家和学的特权。将血腥的历史解释成为有血性的历史，而且还要将这样的历史加以粉饰和赞美，这种现象在一些学作品和理论章里时有表达，本对韩少功和徐葆耕的两部(篇)代表性作品中的观点作了批判性的讨论，从史实、对待史实的态度、作家与学的底线、化的域限与原因等方面进行了深入的探讨。     

德国的体育与媒介：德国足球与体育媒介的里程碑和基本事实

体育在德国大众传媒中占据非常重要的地位。从报纸到广播电视再到新媒体时代,体育都是媒介内容中的重要元素。足球更是占据了体育内容中的核心地位。体育是如何被大众媒介转变的,大众媒介如何受到体育的影响,一直是媒介研究的核心内容之一。在德国电视史上,收视率排名前十位的节目全部是有德国队参加的世界杯和欧洲杯足球赛的赛事转播,其中收视率最高的是于2014年7月13日举行的巴西世界杯决赛德国队与阿根廷队之间的较量,超过三千万德国民众收看了这场比赛的电视转播。因此,世界杯足球赛对于德国社会和体育新闻而言具有重要的影响。研究梳理了德国足球的发展史,以作者主编的《2011国际体育媒介调查》中的数据为依托,以从1994年美国世界杯开始到2014年巴西世界杯期间20年中的世界杯和欧洲杯足球赛为主要研究对象。
　　通过对比,研究发现了不少转变：例如1994年世界杯时,德国电视台转播一场足球比赛的时间是219分钟,到2014年世界杯时已经提升到550分钟。转播过程中比赛所占的比例从1994年的49%下降到2014年的23%。德国民众对体育尤其是足球的狂热,每年可以带来30亿欧元的商业赞助。《2011国际体育媒介调查》在对世界五大洲23个国家和地区81家平面媒体的18340篇文章展开的大数据分析研究发现,受关注度最高的项目依次是足球、网球、英式橄榄球、曲棍球、冰球、自行车、篮球、澳式橄榄球、高尔夫球和马术比赛,其中足球一项就占据41%的比例,网球和英式橄榄球的比例分别为8%和5%。另一方面,撰写体育新闻的平面媒体记者中90%以上为男性。此外,在足球占据体育报道的比例上,罗马尼亚、葡萄牙、巴西、希腊、德国、波兰、苏格兰、南非、法国和瑞士是最高的,其中罗马尼亚媒体报道的比例高达85%。     

Learning and adaptation with regard to complementary medicine in a foreign context: Intercultural experiences of medical students from different cultural backgrounds

Little is known about challenges and transition that medical students from different cultural backgrounds face with regard to complementary medicine (CM). This paper explores such students’ experiences and perspectives of socio-cultural and academic difference with regard to CM and experiences of intercultural relations. Using a constructivist grounded theory approach, 30 in-depth qualitative interviews were conducted with medical students across 10 Australian medical schools. The data were rigorously analysed through a systematic process of coding, categorisation and theoretical development. The findings indicate that students adapted considerably to the host culture. Students with Western backgrounds integrated better socio-culturally and academically compared to students with non-Western backgrounds. Although nationality represented cultural identity, students’ construction of cultural difference was informed by their perception of diverging value systems within the specific educational environment. These values were, in turn, reflected in students’ reported behaviours, attitudes, and levels of engagement in socio-cultural and academic aspects of university life. Adaptation employed by students was evidenced largely due to their conflicting sense of responsibility towards familial culture regarding CM and focus on fitting in. While students’ tendency to gravitate towards cultural peers was evident, most students adapted to their host environment regarding CM to fit into normal intercultural encounters during medical school. In conclusion, students’ intercultural contact with regard to CM was both complex and problematic. At a time of significant diversification within the higher education student body, this paper highlights the role medical education institutions can play in fostering intercultural and academic guidance and support.     

中国武术与奥林匹克运动之差异性研究

为使武术套路运动项目顺利进入奥林匹克运动会,文章采用文献资料法、比较法以及访问法,从文化、生存方式和比赛的评判标准三个方面寻找中国武术与奥林匹克运动之间的差异。以促进竞技武术的改革发展。早日实现中国武术的奥运梦。     

武术国际传播绩效评估框架体系建构的相关研究

本文根据武术国际传播科学化、规范化的要求,探讨了评估机制引入的必要性及意义．同时,以评估学理论为基础,以传播学中涉及的主要因素为轮廓,以涉及武术普及、推广的相关因素为主体,建构了武术国际传播绩效评估框架体系。     

An examination of the relationship between social self-efficacy and personal growth initiative in international context

The cross-cultural transitioning experience of international students has been viewed as a high-impact practice for student learning. International students experience both challenges and growth opportunities when they encounter new peoples and environments. However, limited research exists on the student factors that predict benefits, growth or resilience for international students through their cross-cultural transitioning experience. This study investigated social self-efficacy as a predictor of personal growth initiative amongst international students, above and beyond demographic and linguistic factors. In addition, the factorial structure of Personal Growth Initiative Scale-II was examined. Our results indicated that the perceived ability to successfully negotiate social situations and produce positive social interactions predict greater personal growth initiative and its dimensions regardless of students’ language proficiency. Moreover, results from the confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) provided further support for the first-order four-factor structure of the PGIS-II. Results have implications for improving international student integration, because efforts to support students’ social self-efficacy are linked to their personal growth initiative.     

‘The old days of amateurism are over’: the Samaranch revolution and the return of Olympic tennis

Tennis featured in every Olympics from 1896 to 1924, after which disagreements between the International Olympic Committee (IOC) and the International Lawn Tennis Federation (ILTF) on matters pertaining to organisational control and the amateur eligibility of players led to tennis being removed from the Olympic Games as a full-medal event until the 1988 Seoul Olympics. This paper traces the steps of the sport’s reinstatement, from when efforts commenced in the 1950s, setting this development in the contexts of: broader political movements, shifting IOC leadership, burgeoning commercialisation of Olympic sport, the concomitant push for professionalisation and the declining influence of amateur ideals within both the Olympic movement and international tennis. Under the leadership of the amateur stalwart Avery Brundage, the IOC stymied attempts to facilitate tennis’s re-entry, challenging both the ILTF on failing to deal with widespread ‘sham-amateur’ practices and the avaricious promoters luring amateur players toward the professional ranks. Brundage and the IOC also strongly condemned the move to ‘open’ tennis and an acceptance of full-blown professionalism. Only a change in leadership, firstly with Lord Killanin and then the progressive reformer Juan Antonio Samaranch, did the IOC recognise the value of tennis within the Olympic movement, which by then had itself become increasingly money-oriented.     

Minority Cultures and Social Media: Magnifying Garifuna

This paper looks at social media use by the Garifuna people. It explores how they are using social media to create a supraterritorial cyberscape. Despite the claim that global media is marginalising minority cultures and causing global homogenisation, this research found that newer forms of social media are in fact creating virtual cultural cyberscapes that are extending minority cultures. The Garifuna cultural response to social media can be demonstrative of the positive impact of social media minority perspectives. The larger implication, though, is that traditional geographical models of cultural space are becoming obsolete. In this research, a total of 60 Garifuna in locations all across the United States and Honduras were selected for participation. Their access to and use of media were examined.