气候对公众健康影响的调查与分析——以乌鲁木齐为视点

通过对乌鲁木齐市天山区、沙依巴克区、水磨沟区和新市区进行问卷调查,调查不同年龄段市民的基本信息、身体状况以及对气候的态度、心理状况等。了解了公众是否能更好地适应变化的气候环境,是否能够及时对自身健康做好预防工作,着重了解气候对公众生理、心理等各方面影响的程度,并通过分析,较全面地探析气候与公众健康的关系,使公众进一步了解气候对自身健康的影响,并为相关职能部门建立与气候相关的各类疾病预报和防控体系提供参考依据。     

Challenges and possibilities in climate change education

Educating and communicating about climate change is challenging. Researchers reported that climate change concepts are often misunderstood. Some people do not believe that climate change will have impacts on their own life. Other challenges may include people＇s difficulty in perceiving small or gradual environmental changes, the fact that overconsumption brings people power and recognition, people＇s weak connection to nature, and people＇s tendency to make emotional decisions and quickly solve environmental problems. Drawn from research, some climate change communication and education strategies are presented. Well designed environmental messages could convince people that they can still reduce the scale of the phenomenon and could link mitigation actions to people＇s positive desires or aspirations, while providing local examples of climate change impacts and illustrated information. In mitigation education, some strategies （future education, reflective, experiential, socio-constructivist approaches and the community of change）, jointly used, could correct the learners＇ misconceptions and lead them to action. In adaptation education, scientists and citizens could get together to choose a specific problem that may worsen with climate change, analyze it, and propose and implement adaptations. In the meantime, pedagogical strategies inspired by cognitive science could strengthen the citizens＇ skills： posing and solving problems, decision-making, scenario building and sustainable planning.     

可持续发展战略下我国低碳经济的思考

随着全球气温逐渐变暖,在人类自然资源和能源日趋紧张的环境下,发展低碳经济已成为世界各国的共识。在我国强调可持续发展的今天,走低碳经济之路是我们必须研究的课题。本文就如何结合我国实际发展低碳经济提出了思考。     

简论庙会与中国农耕文明的关系

庙会文化是中华传统文化中独特的组成部分,充分反映着广大民众的心理诉求和风俗习惯,其中的很多活动,都与中国传统的农耕文明的运作方式相适应。从根本上说,庙会是中国农耕文明发展过程中的产物,从庙会祭祀活动中的诸神、庙会节日时间的选取,早期祭祀的社会功能、庙会中的祭祀对象的文化渊源等等方面,都可以看到明显的农耕文化的影响印记。     

以市场气氛假说检验全流通时期A股IPO抑价现象的实证分析

市场气氛假说认为市场状态和二级市场投资者的投机是造成新股抑价的重要因素,且新股上市首日抑价率与市场气氛之间呈现正相关关系。以市场气氛假说对全流通时期A股206支IPO新股抑价程度进行实证分析,发现在市场指数上涨期间,上市首日换手率、上市首日股指收益率、上市当周股指收益率为影响IPO抑价的显著变量,且具有与假设相符的正相关关系,表明市场气氛假说可以说明A股全流通时期的IPO首日抑价现象。     

气候变暖背景下中国西南干旱时空分异特征

基于相对湿润度的干旱指数,应用1958-2012年中国西南89个国家基本气象站逐日气象资料,研究中国西南干旱时域变化、空间分布和次区域时空演变特征。结果表明：1958-2012年西南平均干旱区域占总面积的30%左右,川西高原、川西南山地和云南中北部区域干旱发生频率在60%以上,大部分区域干旱强度呈增加趋势。EOF mode 1反映出西南区域干旱强度振荡的位相相同;云贵高原中部易出现异常干旱、振荡强度大且敏感。EOF mode 2特征向量场北部与南部呈反相位分型特征,其形成机制是南部片区的云南高原和贵州高原偏南地区主要受南亚季风影响,而北部片区的四川、重庆和贵州偏北地区主要受青藏高原季风、东亚季风的影响。依据REOF特征向量场结构类型,将研究区域划分为4个次区域;“川西高原异常型”干旱强度显著减弱,由干变湿的突变点在1987年。“四川北部异常型”干旱强度显著增强,由湿变干的突变点在1968年。“云南高原异常型”和“贵州高原异常型” 干旱指数均呈波动下降趋势,但未通过显著性检验。     

1900年以来贝加尔湖水位变化及其原因分析

水位变化作为湖泊水文过程和水量平衡的动态反映,是湖泊生态环境的重要影响因素。全球最大的淡水湖——贝加尔湖,在自然变化与人为活动的双重影响下,过去100多年水位表现出较大的年内、年际和多年变化。贝加尔湖水位变化与入湖径流量变化密切相关,与贝加尔湖最大支流色楞格河的径流量变化较为一致。气候变暖带来的气温上升和降水减少使得入湖径流量减少,贝加尔湖水位下降。人类活动对贝加尔湖水位变化影响表现在两个方面：一方面,全球变暖条件下耕地面积扩张和灌溉用水增加导致贝加尔湖流域用水增加,使得入湖径流量减少,贝加尔湖水位下降;另一方面,1958年伊尔库茨克水电站投入运营之后,贝加尔湖水位变化受到了安加拉河水位顶托的影响。在下游水电站人为调控影响下,贝加尔湖年平均水位升高,年内水位波动幅度增加,年最低和最高水位出现日期推迟。地处全球气候与环境变化敏感区的贝加尔湖,其水位变化对湖泊及周边生态环境影响显著。因此,探究在全球变化背景下贝加尔湖的水位变化及影响因素对保护当地生态环境具有重要意义。     

1980年以来河南省主要粮食作物产量对气候变化的敏感性分析

根据1980—2015年河南省及周边39个气象站点逐日观测数据,选取与主要粮食作物生育机理相关的气候指标,运用气候统计方法分析河南省主要粮食作物生育期内水热气候要素的时空变化。结合统计数据,运用面板非线性回归模型分析主要粮食作物产量对气候变化的敏感性。研究发现：①河南省冬小麦返青期最低气温和生育期平均气温均呈显著增加趋势,在空间上两者升温速率呈现从河南省中部向周边递减的特征。夏玉米生育期总日照时数呈明显减少趋势,其减少速度在豫中地区最快,在豫西南地区最慢。②从敏感效应来看,冬小麦和夏玉米产量分别对生育期平均气温和生育期总日照时数的敏感效应最强,对生育期总降水量的敏感效应均最弱。从敏感区看,冬小麦产量敏感区主要分布在豫北、豫西和豫南地区,夏玉米则集中在豫西和豫东地区。③冬小麦生育期平均气温突变后有利于除豫北以外共83.3%区域内产量的增加,返青期最低气温突变后有利于豫北和豫东共44.4%区域内产量的增加。夏玉米生育期总日照时数突变后对豫中和豫西共44.4%区域的产量增加有利。     

Gendered perceptions of typical engineers across specialties for engineering majors

Young women do not choose to be engineers nearly as often as young men, and they tend to cluster in particular specialties when they do. We examine these patterns and the role of gender schemas as applied to perceptions of typical engineers in understanding the choices that women make in terms of engineering specialties. We use Part 1 of two waves of survey data collected from first-year engineering students at a large Midwestern university in the fall of 2014. Respondents scored typical engineers on 60 items from the Bem Sex-Role Inventory [Bem, S. L. 1974. “The Measurement of Psychological Androgyny.” Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 42: 155–162]. Preliminary results show that women consider the typical engineer to be more masculine compared to the impressions gathered from men. Additionally, engineering gender schemas predict some specialty areas but not all, suggesting that gendered perceptions may not affect choice of specialty. Our results provide insight into the decisions that women make once entering engineering.     

The climate for entrepreneurship at higher education institutions

While the importance of a supportive context for entrepreneurship is widely acknowledged, its antecedents are rarely investigated. We apply the concept of organizational climate to higher education institutions and examine the drivers of students’ perceptions of the entrepreneurial climate in their university. Combining data from two unique datasets and using multilevel techniques, we analyze the relationship between university characteristics and such climate perceptions of 8009 students at public universities in Germany. We find university entrepreneurship measures to have a positive effect on students’ climate perceptions, which also depend on students’ background and gender. In addition, we find evidence for different peer effects, depending on students’ affinity for entrepreneurship. For the general student population, including entrepreneurship content in their normal studies seems to be required to initiate a social process of sensemaking. However, students’ perception of the entrepreneurial climate only depend to a certain degree on intentional entrepreneurship measures. In our study, general university characteristics have the strongest influence on climate perceptions. Overall, our study adds to our understanding of which parameters are important for establishing a more favorable and inspiring climate for becoming an entrepreneur at higher education institutions.