南方丘陵山地带NDVI时空变化及其驱动因子分析

本文利用MODIS归一化植被指数(Normailized Difference Vegetation Index,NDVI)数据对南方丘陵山地带2000-2010年间植被覆盖的年际动态、季相变化和空间差异进行研究,并结合气象因子和土地利用/覆被数据分析植被覆盖变化的原因。研究表明:南方丘陵山地带植被NDVI值较高,属高植被覆盖区。2000-2010年间植被NDVI整体呈上升趋势,但并不显著(p=0.45)。从不同植被类型的季相变化来看,草地的变化幅度最大,其次为灌丛,森林植被变化幅度最小,生长峰值主要出现在8、9月份。植被覆盖变化存在显著的空间差异,封山育林、退耕还林还草生态恢复区和石漠化综合治理区的植被覆盖度显著提高,城镇化迅速发展区植被明显退化。植被覆盖变化是气候和人类活动共同作用的结果。植被覆盖年际变化与气候因子年际变化的相关系数区域分异比较明显。降水量对植被覆盖的影响主要表现在对植被生长年内变动的控制,大部分植被生长对降水存在1个月滞后现象。农业生产的提高、城市化进程的加速及生态建设的重视等人类活动是影响植被覆盖变化空间差异的另一重要因素。     

我国大学科技创新景气指数研究

综述大学科技创新测度的理论与方法,分析现有基于创新能力和绩效的大学创新指数存在的缺乏时序性和动态性、无预警功能、不能反映大学科技创新景气波动状态、对科技创新政策指导性、时效性较弱等缺点。在创新周期理论基础上,基于景气状态视角,将景气分析方法与大学科技创新指标评价体系结合,构建大学科技创新景气指数及预警信号系统,以反映创新景气状态、波动程度及循环周期,并通过分析景气测度结果,为大学科技创新政策的制定和调整提供决策参考依据。     

Using heritage risk maps as an approach to estimating the threat to materials of traditional buildings in Tainan (Taiwan)

Academic studies concerning how climate influences Asian heritage are rare. The object of this study was to utilize the concept of heritage climatology together with a spatial analysis approach that includes respective climate parameter risks to cultural heritage sites. The study area, Tainan City, Taiwan, is in a subtropical zone south of the Tropic of Cancer. Tainan has nearly 300 hundred years of rich history and a multicultural background. This study used maps to gain information about potential climactic threats to Tainan's cultural-historical legacy. There are four kinds of map that use ArcGIS to analyse and demarcate regions not only by climate parameters but also by risk to heritage. These four types of map are climate maps, heritage climate maps, heritage maps and heritage risk maps. Climate maps give the short- to medium-term general status of the climate in Tainan City and thus served as the foundation of the other maps used in this study. Heritage climate maps give data concerning index factors that influence wood and stone materials. Heritage maps show locations of cultural heritage sites on an administrative map and categorize them according to their historic value. Heritage risk maps use accumulated calculations to superimpose the heritage climate map onto the heritage map in order to evaluate the risks to heritage sites in certain areas and categorize the levels of risk. Heritage sites in mountainous areas generally need to be protected from heavy rain, whereas downtown city environments, due to the urban heat island effect, require better protection against heat and cracking. By comparison of our field study results and climate risk maps, we found that in urban areas wooden materials have a higher risk of structural cracking, colour fading and bio-degradation, while coastal areas have a higher risk of weathering of stone materials.     

低碳经济背景下的“五个重庆”建设

气候变化已经成为新世纪人类发展面临的重大挑战之一。大力发展低碳经济既符合我国国情,又能够对国际社会对抗全球变暖、减缓温室气体排放做出巨大贡献。今后,各省、市、区在经济社会发展进程中,面对的主要问题是如何将低碳经济与自身发展结合。重庆提出了"五个重庆"("宜居重庆"、"畅通重庆"、"森林重庆"、"平安重庆"、"健康重庆")的发展目标,"五个重庆"包含了低碳经济的主要理念,而低碳经济对"五个重庆"的建设又提出了更高的要求。实践中,更应将低碳经济发展模式与"五个重庆"相结合,使"五个重庆"与低碳经济的协调发展成为其他省市地区发展借鉴的样板。     

黑龙江省主要作物产量变化及其与气候因子的关系

根据黑龙江省1980-2011年的气候和主要粮食作物产量等资料,利用SPSS相关性分析法研究黑龙江省主要粮食作物产量与温度、降水两个主要气候因子的相关性。结果表明:黑龙江省主要粮食作物产量总体变化趋势为小麦产量下降,水稻、玉米和大豆增加,形成了以玉米、大豆和水稻为主的产量结构;温度与玉米、大豆、水稻、小麦几种作物产量的相关系数分别是0.380、0.574、0.603和-0.666,都在0.01或0.05水平上显著相关;降水和水稻、小麦两种作物产量在0.05水平上显性相关,相关系数分别是-0.395和-0.430。降水和玉米、大豆两种作物产量的相关性较差,相关系数分别是-0.197和-0.294。由此可见,温度对黑龙江省主要作物产量的影响大于降水的影响,且几种作物产量受温度和降水影响为:小麦>水稻>大豆>玉米。     

Remediating misconception on climate change among secondary school students in Malaysia

Existing studies report on secondary school students’ misconceptions related to climate change; they also report on the methods of teaching as reinforcing misconceptions. This quasi-experimental study was designed to test the null hypothesis that a curriculum based on constructivist principles does not lead to greater understanding and fewer misconceptions on acid rain, global warming, greenhouse effect, and ozone layer depletion than the traditional Malaysian curriculum. For this purpose, two classes from two different schools were randomly assigned to experimental (N?=?35) and control condition (N?=?38). Following the intervention, an ANCOVA with pre-test as the covariate showed statistically significant differences in understanding for all four topics; additional interviews with randomly selected students from experimental and control group further underscore the findings. Implications are discussed.     

北极旅游影响因素研究进展

随着北极战略价值的提升,北极旅游热不断升温,北极旅游发展影响因素研究理应得到重视。本文检索了科学引文索引（Web of Science）和中国知网（CNKI）中北极旅游研究的相关文献,借助CiteSpace文献计量分析软件的关键词共现分析和时区视图分析等功能,分析了北极旅游的研究热点及其演化过程,系统综述了北极旅游影响因素的研究进展。研究表明：①北极旅游研究还未成规模。相对来说,国外起步较早,研究涵盖面较广,积累了比较丰富的经验;而国内起步较晚,仅从气候变化与地缘政治等方面进行探讨,广度和深度不足。已有研究中涉及影响因素的多从目的地角度开展分析,经济水平、游客构成等客源市场方面还有待加强。②前10位北极旅游研究热点中,气候变化、治理、人为干扰、海冰、脆弱性、恢复力、旅游管理等都与北极旅游影响因素密切相关。③已有研究中北极旅游影响因素可以归纳为政治政策、气候变化、旅游资源、旅游气候舒适度和管理与基础设施5类。其中,政治稳定和气候变化是北极旅游发展的前提许可和宏观影响因素。前者是北极旅游能否开展的最基本也是最关键因素,后者则是北极旅游能否发展的重要影响因素,既能直接影响旅游资源,又能通过对天气的影响,进而影响游客行为。而旅游资源、旅游气候舒适度和管理与基础设施则是北极旅游可持续发展的直接影响因素。     

Positive error climate promotes learning outcomes through students’ adaptive reactions towards errors

Errors are an integral part of the learning process and an opportunity to increase skills and knowledge, but they are often discouraged, sanctioned and derided in the classroom. This study tests whether students' perceptions of being part of an error-friendly classroom context (i.e., a positive classroom error climate) is positively related to students' learning outcomes via students' adaptive reactions towards errors. A total of 563 Italian middle school students from 32 mathematics classes completed a questionnaire on their perceptions of classroom error climate and their reactions towards errors. Students' math grades were used as indicators of their level of learning outcomes. A multilevel model showed that perceived classroom error climate was positively related to math grades via increased adaptive reactions towards errors. Our findings revealed that an error-friendly classroom context is associated with students’ adaptive adjustment to errors and to better learning outcomes in mathematics.     

Perceived school climate and school grades in secondary school students: The mediating effect of self-determined motivation

Students’ perception of school climate plays an important role in the quality of their academic experience. However, the effects of perceived school climate on self-determined academic motivation (Ryan & Deci, 2000, 2020) have received little empirical attention to this day. Thus, the present study aimed to investigate the role of school climate in predicting changes in self-determined academic motivation and grades in a longitudinal study with secondary school students. Participants are 957 Belgian students (girls = 52.87 %; M_age = 14.41 years, SD_age = 1.66 years) who took part in a three-wave, year-long study. Results from structural equation modeling showed that students’ positive perceptions of school climate at the beginning of the study (Time 1) were positively related to changes in self-determined academic motivation at the mid-point (Time 2), which in turn were positively associated with changes in grades by the end of the study (Time 3), over and above the effects of gender and age. These results have implications for educational psychology by suggesting that organizational aspects of the school setting can positively influence students’ academic grades through increases in the quality of their motivation over time.     

中国四省市中学校风状况及对学生阅读素养的影响--基于PISA 2018数据的分析

基于PISA 2018中国四省市样本数据,对四省市中学的校风状况以及校风对学生阅读素养的影响进行研究。结果表明:在校风的3个领域,四省市学生破坏性行为指数低于OECD平均水平,但校园欺凌现象需引起重视;教与学方面,四省市教师的教学热忱较高、教师支持较强,4种教学方式在语文课堂上发生的频率显著高于OECD平均水平,但导向型教学和课堂反馈对学生阅读素养有显著负向影响;学校共同体方面,四省市学校的竞争和合作指数均高于OECD平均水平,其竞争与学生阅读素养存在倒U形关系,学校归属感显著正向影响阅读素养,但学生的学校归属感较差。建议学校关注校园欺凌现象,坚持事后治理和事前预防并重,营造良好氛围提升学生的学校归属感;进一步优化导向型教学方式,同时注重反馈的有效性,以提升学生的学校归属感,促进学生身心健康发展。