网络信息资源的经济管理研究(Ⅱ)--论我国互联网信息的有效配置

本文利用经济学中的帕累托准则研究网络信息的有效配置.在论述网络信息有效配置的经济学意义、内容、原则的基础上,通过研究和分析我国互联网信息配置的现状,提出了建立统一的网络信息规划部门、制订完善的信息法规和信息政策、引入市场竞争机制和协调网络信息配置4项对策措施.     

谈高校图书馆外文期刊资源建设中的帕累托改进

本文分析了帕累托改进的含义和高校图书馆外文期刊资源建设存在的问题。对高校图书馆外文期刊资源建设实现帕累托改进提出了切实可行的措施。     

Uncertainty in the Movie Industry: Does Star Power Reduce the Terror of the Box Office?

Everyone knows that the movie business is risky. But how risky is it? Do strategies exist that reduce risk? We investigate these questions using a sample of over 2000 motion pictures. We discover that box-office revenues are asymptotically Pareto-distributed and have infinite variance. The mean is dominated by rare blockbuster movies that are located in the far right tail. There is no typical movie because box-office revenue outcomes do not converge to an average: revenues diverge over all scales. The studio model of risk management lacks a foundation in theory or evidence, and revenue forecasts have zero precision. Movies are complex products and the cascade of information among film-goers during the course of a film's run can evolve along so many paths that it is impossible to attribute the success of a movie to individual causal factors. The audience makes a movie a hit and no amount of “star power” or marketing can alter that. The real star is the movie.     

Estimation of poisson-generalized pareto compound extreme value distribution by probability-weighted moments and empirical analysis

This paper puts forward a Poisson-generalized Pareto （Poisson-GP） distribution. This new form of compound extreme value distribution expands the existing application of compound extreme value distribution, and can be applied to predicting financial risk, large insurance settlement and high-grade earthquake, etc. Compared with the maximum likelihood estimation （MLE） and compound moment estimation （CME）, probability-weighted moment estimation （PWME） is used to estimate the parameters of the distribution function. The specific formulas are presented. Through Monte Carlo simulation with sample sizes 10, 20, 50, 100, 1 000, it is concluded that PWME is an efficient method and it behaves steadily. The mean square errors （MSE） of estimators by PWME are much smaller than those of estimators by CME, and there is no significant difference between PWME and MLE. Finally, an example of foreign exchange rate is given. For Dollar/Pound exchange rates from 1990-01-02 to 2006-12-29, this paper formulates the distribution function of the largest loss among the investment losses exceeding a certain threshold by Poisson-GP compound extreme value distribution, and obtains predictive values at different confidence levels.     

中国社会养老保险制度改革的帕累托有效性研究

假定改革不影响人均产出,则中国社会养老保险制度改革是零和博弈,改革仅在代际间进行收入再分配。所以中国社会养老保险制度改革能否带来帕累托改进取决于改革能否提高人均产出。改革前后人均产出水平高低决定因素包括人口增长率、资本对产出的贡献份额、原现收现付制度下养老保险费率、部分积累制社会统筹部分养老保险费率和退休期效用折算到工作期所采用的折算率。     

我国代议制民主的制度分析

我国的代议制民主经过了一系列的制度变迁,形成了具有中国特色的代议制民主政体--人民代表大会制度;我国现行的人民代表大会制度作为我国政治民主化进程中所取得的重要成果,还处在不断发展和完善的过程之中,不可避免地会表现出制度非均衡的种种迹象;只有不断进行制度创新,才能实现我国代议制民主"帕累托最优"的理想状态.     

Causal judgments of positive mood in relation to self-regulation: A case study with Flemish students

To examine students’ causal judgements of positive mood in relation to self-regulation, 128 participants from two different schools representing two distinct educational environments (Technical/Vocational School (TSO/BSO): N = 63; General Secondary School (ASO): N = 65) were asked to judge 45 statements containing three possible relationships (A → B; A ← B; A <> B) for all iterations of 5 constructs associated with positive mood, namely Hope, Optimism, Resilience, Confidence, Persistence, 4 constructs associated with self-regulation, namely Motivation, Social support, Problem-solvingLearning goals, and 1 construct representing Academic performance. Based on a Pareto analysis, mental models were constructed for each school. An analysis of the mental models indicates that all students believe positive mood constructs to be causally related to self-regulation constructs with Academic performance identified as the main driver and Learning goals as the primary outcome for both schools. It is concluded that an appreciation of participants’ causal attributions of positive mood states in relation to self-regulation can present a clearer picture of the conditions under which participants’ causal understanding of positive mood and self-regulation constructs can be activated and used as an interpretive and evaluative framework in learning encounters.