关于概率统计教学改革的思考

概率统计是应用性和实践性很强的一门课程，目前的教学内容和教学方法存在着各种问题。针对其现状，为了突出应用性，培养学生应用数学知识解决问题的意识和能力，从课程的重要性以及教学方法两个方面提出了改革的建议和措施。     

谈随机事件及独立性

本文对概率统计定义给了比较深刻出的阐述,又给出了两个事件相互独立的两种等阶定义。     

“支架式”教学与MOOC相融合在概率论与数理统计教学中的应用

文章提出由教师基于建构主义创建合理支架,引导学生完成MOOC学习的教学方法。以此为出发点选取“全概率公式与贝叶斯公式”为教学实例,给出MOOC制作、支架构建、板书教学的具体教学过程设计,积极探索MOOC混合式教学模式的构建。在新的教学模式下,学生能自主地进行MOOC学习,培养创新精神,实现自我发展。     

Odds that don't add up!

This artical presents examples of situations where a lack of understanding of probability leads to erroneous expectations.     

The Game of Tai Sai

In this article Ann-Lee Wang describes a gambling game that many Malaysians engage in. often illegally. The game is called “Tai Sai” which literally means “Big Small” in Chinese. There are two versions of the game, both of which provide interesting problems for teachers of introductory courses in probability. Both versions use three dice.     

对一堂小学数学"统计与概率"课的思考

通过对一堂小学数学“统计与概率”课的剖析，笔者认为新课程小学数学课堂应在坚持基础性和探究性的统一，突出学生问题意识的培养的同时，还应注重加强教师专业知识的继续学习及开放式的教学设计．     

Beyond Average: Contemporary statistical techniques for analysing student evaluations of teaching

Student evaluations of teaching (SETs) have been used to evaluate higher education teaching performance for decades. Reporting SET results often involves the extraction of an average for some set of course metrics, which facilitates the comparison of teaching teams across different organisational units. Here, we draw attention to ongoing problems with the naive application of this approach. Firstly, a specific average value may arise from data that demonstrates very different patterns of student satisfaction. Furthermore, the use of distance measures (e.g. an average) for ordinal data can be contested, and finally, issues of multiplicity increasingly plague approaches using hypothesis testing. It is time to advance the methodology of the field. We demonstrate how multinomial distributions and hierarchical Bayesian methods can be used to contextualise the SET scores of a course to different organisational units and student cohorts, and then show how this approach can be used to extract sensible information about how a distribution is changing.     

On Collection Size and Retrieval Effectiveness

The relationship between collection size and retrieval effectiveness is particularly important in the context of Web search. We investigate it first analytically and then experimentally, using samples and subsets of test collections. Different retrieval systems vary in how the score assigned to an individual document in a sample collection relates to the score it receives in the full collection; we identify four cases.We apply signal detection (SD) theory to retrieval from samples, taking into account the four cases and using a variety of shapes for relevant and irrelevant distributions. We note that the SD model subsumes several earlier hypotheses about the causes of the decreased precision in samples. We also discuss other models which contribute to an understanding of the phenomenon, particularly relating to the effects of discreteness. Different models provide complementary insights.Extensive use is made of test data, some from official submissions to the TREC-6 VLC track and some new, to illustrate the effects and test hypotheses. We empirically confirm predictions, based on SD theory, that P@n should decline when moving to a sample collection and that average precision and R-precision should remain constant. SD theory suggests the use of recall-fallout plots as operating characteristic (OC) curves. We plot OC curves of this type for a real retrieval system and query set and show that curves for sample collections are similar but not identical to the curve for the full collection.     

波函数标准条件论证的讨论

本文指出前苏联学者布洛欣采夫由几率流密度的连续性论证波函数及其一阶 导数的连续性中有不妥之处。     

用案例定量化分析信息的价值

已进入了信息时代 ,管理者利用信息对未来不确定性的状态进行决策时 ,首先应该计算出信息的价值 ,然后进行风险决策