马尔可夫预测分析的应用

马尔可夫预测法是应用概率论中马尔可夫链的理论和方法来研究分析有关经济数据的变化规律，并由此预测未来变化趋势的一种方法。利用马尔可夫链的有关知识可以对市场占有率进行预测。     

随机过程的拉普拉斯变换及其性质

运用倒向随机微分方程的初值解给出了对一给定的适应于布朗运动信息流的随机过程的随机 Laplace变换的定义,给出并证明其性质,最后给出两个例子．并指出经典Laplace变换是本文的特例．     

Rethinking the use of Multi-User Virtual Environments in education

ABSTRACT

Multi-User Virtual Environments (MUVEs) have gained more prominence in education of late; however, the question of their theoretically sound implementation remains relatively understudied. The current article addresses this gap through the explanation of how a MUVE platform Second Life was used in an undergraduate course for pre-service teachers. Instructional decisions are explained within a theoretical framework of Open Source Educative Processes and are illustrated by specific multiple data sources. Based on the semester-long observations, the authors argue that Second Life can be used to create independent learning communities that have possibilities for transformative learning, creating contexts in which students move beyond simple understanding and engage multiple perspectives in their meaning-making processes. The authors explain the potential instructional and technological pitfalls involved and how to deal with them through a micro-analytic Open Source methodology, and raise broader philosophical questions about the role of technology in education.     

Innovation as a social bubble: The example of the Human Genome Project

In this paper we present a detailed synthesis of the development of the Human Genome Project (HGP) from the mid 1980s through 2000, in order to test our hypothesis of “social bubbles”, which claims that strong social interactions between enthusiastic supporters weave a network of reinforcing feedbacks that lead to widespread endorsement and extraordinary commitment by those involved, beyond what would be rationalized by a standard cost-benefit analysis in the presence of extraordinary uncertainties and risks. The HGP was initiated as a public project funded by government agencies, starting at a moderate pace. The progressive introduction of different actors and the development of various interests catalyzed the project, which eventually became eminent both in the public and private sectors. The competition between the public and the private sector played greatly in favor of both: the financial burden as well as the horizon of the public project were significantly reduced, the private project(s) gained from the hype of the public project, yet had to play an active and collaborative role in order to remain in the game. This is at the core of the social bubble hypothesis. To further our argument, we present quantitative analysis of the development of the biotech sector within the financial stock market. Lastly, we point to the fact that the hypes fueling the bubble during its growth have not been followed by real tangible outcomes over the short expected time horizons. Indeed, at the time of writing (May, 2011), the consensus of the scientific community is that it will take decades to exploit the fruits of the HGP.     

Innovation and network multiplexity: R&D and the concurrent effects of two collaboration networks in an emerging economy

This study focuses on the multiplexity of firm R&D networks, and it investigates two types of boundary-spanning networks: the bipartite network between firms and government-sponsored institutions (GSIs), and the traditional firm–firm network. We apply a social network perspective to examine the effects that these kinds of networks have on firm innovativeness, in relation to the effects of the firm’s internal R&D efforts. We define the firm-GSI network as bipartite, and we investigate how the structural characteristics of this network (cohesion and centrality) affect innovativeness. We then decompose the innovational effects of firm–firm networks into two categories (intra- and inter-sector) to distinguish the effects of these collaboration networks. Furthermore, we investigate how these various external collaborative networks interact with a firm’s internal R&D efforts for driving innovativeness. Our empirical study of 420 manufacturing firms in Mexico evaluates evidence from surveys and secondary data. The findings indicate that the structural properties of both firm–GSI and firm–firm networks have positive effects on innovativeness, but firm–GSI network cohesion has a stronger negative interaction with R&D in influencing firm innovativeness. Moreover, intra-sector centrality in a firm–firm network has a stronger negative interaction with R&D than inter-sector centrality does in driving firm innovativeness. We contribute to the literature by integrating insights from the perspectives of network multiplexity, social embeddedness, and resource complementarity in regard to inter-organizational behavior. Our study also provides meaningful guidelines for both managers and policy makers. The study’s findings are robust to concerns of common method bias and alternative model specifications.     

“好不”副词语法化过程中几个问题的续议

"好不"这一类似副词性质的结构及其羡余否定格式在言语生活中有着极其广泛的应用,在这个领域里,许多著名的语言学家、研究人员及学者都曾经做出过一些精辟的见解。但与此同时,也留下一些颇具争议性的"空间"值得我们继续去讨论,主要表现在:(一)论证"好容易"和"好不容易"表意相同且得以存在的历史条件和广泛流传原因;(二)"好不"副词语法化的过程如何去拟定;(三)"好+不+形容词"结构的分类及其羡余否定的判定。     

How LINCs Were Made: Alignment and Exclusion in American Medical Informatics

Electronic computers in information systems are often seen as "ready-to-use" technology, which simply becomes applied to certain domains. This article explores the sociotechnical processes involved in the development of information systems by studying two cases of medical informatics, the Laboratory Instrument Computer (LINC) and a medical information system at a hospital. They show that information systems have from the beginning been a result of multiple alignment processes between the relevant actors, among which are users, developers, and the technology itself. The first case reveals that information systems are successful when actors become aligned and coordinated across boundaries. This alignment includes user interfaces as well as parts and components of the computer. The second case exhibits disalignment between relevant actors, which leads to an unstable information system. The two mechanisms are found coexisting in medical informatics.     

高职院校连锁经营与管理特色专业建设的实践与探索——以山东商务职业学院为例

按照在人才培养过程中,职业教育改革的核心是要解决学生的综合实践能力的问题,山东商务职业学院在连锁经营与管理特色专业建设中,构建“全流程实践嵌入式”模块化教学体系,以校企合作、工学结合为基础,建立一种以职业素质为核心,以工作任务为主线,基于工作过程导向的课程体系,把工作过程中的各个实践岗位嵌入进整个教学过程,实现“教学与实践的相互嵌入和有效整合”,取得了很好的效果。     

University students’ success: A psycho-sociological approach

The aim of this paper is to propose a basic model to analyse processes of change in educational institutions taking into account both individual and contextual variables. It aims to identify the basic factors of change in order to contribute to reduce the dispersion of research projects, both from close subjects and one subject alone within human sciences, in order to make scientific accumulation easier and to guide social practice better. This proposal is based on Cryer and Elton’s (Studies in Higher Education, 1: 75–86, 1990) contributions, in this case applied to the learning processes of university students. They may account for static and dynamic aspects. To prove its coherence, it has been statistically compared with the data of a survey carried out among university students in Catalonia (Spain).     

用P-V图判断热力学过程的可能性及对应的能量转换关系

引用理想气体各等值过程、绝热过程、多方过程的主要公式,应用P-V图判断各种各样热力学过程进行的可能性及对应的作功、传热、内能改变间的关系。