担保物权未按比例分配的贷款担保价值研究

本文分析论证了贷款担保的期权特性;针对我国贷款担保实践中存在的问题,建立了担保物权未按比例分配的有风险贷款担保定价模型;通过求解和Monte Carlo模拟测算分析,给出了贷款担保价值的主要影响因素,提出了贷款担保实践中相关的建议。     

基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗算法的无线电定位

为实现在多媒体舞台剧中真实空间的目标与多媒体背景的虚拟空间元素间的互动,进行无线电测向定位建模,利用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗算法进行仿真.实际应用表明,该方法可通过驱动多媒体舞台背景的虚拟场景元素的位置和形态的变化,实现真实空间与虚拟空间的互动.     

离子选择电极减去法误差传播的蒙特卡罗模拟

本文用蒙特卡罗方法模拟研究了减去法中加入体积和电位测量随机误差对结果准确度的影响,并与加入法进行了比较。提出了选择标准溶液浓度、被测溶液体积和每次标准加入体积的选择原则。     

中国城市建设用地扩张趋势模拟及抑制策略简

本文研究改革开放以来我国城市建设用地扩张历史路径和未来发展趋势。构建关于城市建设用地的恒等式并分解出影响城市建设用地规模的解释变量为土地利用效率因素、经济发展因素和人口规模因素;利用我国1981-2010年城市建设用地总量、GDP和人口时间序列数据进行协整分析,建立协整模型;在此基础上运用蒙特卡罗动态模拟,模拟得到我国大陆地区城市建设用地扩张速率落在各个区间的概率。分析发现：城市建设用地与其解释变量间存在协整关系,即长期稳定的均衡关系;在短期内,由于经济发展因素的决定性作用,我国城市建设用地有85%的概率以年均1.5%~3.5%的速度扩张,其中年均增长率保持在2.5%附近的概率达到26%;在保持经济社会稳定发展的前提下,通过实行以提高土地利用效率为导向的政策能抑制城市建设用地的过快扩张,把城市建设用地规模控制在合理的范围内。     

Historical and probabilistic structural analysis of the Royal ditch aqueduct in the Alhambra (Granada)

The structural and historical analysis of the aqueduct of the Alhambra is presented. In the 13th century, Muhammad I built the palatial city of the Alhambra. To provide a water supply, Muhammad I built an irrigation ditch, known as the Royal ditch. The aqueduct was reconstructed in the 18th century in ashlar masonry to replace the original one. This work analyzes the history, geometric modeling, materials and stability of the aqueduct. Due to difficulties in testing and measuring the properties and loads, the Monte Carlo analysis technique is used to analyze stability, where the input parameters are defined as probabilistic distributions. Monte Carlo analysis provides the probability of risk of collapse defined by the geometric security coefficient obtained by means of the theory of limit analysis. Additionally, this technique is used to optimize the thickness of the arch.     

基于故障树的飞机氧气系统可靠性仿真研究

飞机氧气系统是飞机的重要组成部分,其可靠性的高低对飞行安全至关重要,使用故障树方法对其进行了定性分析,在此基础上用蒙特卡洛仿真方法进行了仿真计算,得出氧气系统的可靠度。结果表明,把蒙特卡洛用于飞机氧气系统的故障树分析是切实有效的。     

建筑的叙事性——卡罗.斯卡帕的古堡博物馆设计分析

通过阐述建筑叙事性的概念并对斯卡帕的古堡博物馆中诸方面的叙事性的分析,探讨在建筑设计中营造叙事性空间的可能性与方法,强调叙事性对于当代建筑的意义与重要性。     

Dynamic reliability evaluation of double-layer cylindrical latticed shell under multi-support excitations

To overcome the excessive computational cost and/or bad accuracy of traditional approaches,the probabilistic density evolution method(PDEM) is introduced.The dynamic reliability of a double-layer cylindrical latticed shell is evaluated by applying PDEM and Monte Carlo Method(MCM) respectively,and four apparent wave velocities(100 m/s,500 m/s,800 m/s and 1 200 m/s) and five thresholds(0.1 m,0.2 m,0.3 m,0.4 m and 0.5 m) are taken into consideration.Only the difference between threshold and maximal deformation...     

Ultra-high piezoelectric coefficients and strain-sensitive Curie temperature in hydrogen-bonded systems

We propose a new approach to obtain ultra-high piezoelectric coefficients that can be infinitely large theoretically, where ferroelectrics with strain-sensitive Curie temperature are necessary. We show the first-principles plus Monte Carlo simulation evidence that many hydrogen-bonded ferroelectrics (e.g. organic PhMDA) can be ideal candidates, which are also flexible and lead-free. Owing to the specific features of hydrogen bonding, their proton hopping barrier will drastically increase with prolonged proton transfer distance, while their hydrogen-bonded network can be easily compressed or stretched due to softness of hydrogen bonds. Their barriers as well as the Curie temperature can be approximately doubled upon a tensile strain as low as 2%. Their Curie temperature can be tuned exactly to room temperature by fixing a strain in one direction, and in another direction, an unprecedented ultra-high piezoelectric coefficient of 2058 pC/N can be obtained. This value is even underestimated and can be greatly enhanced when applying a smaller strain. Aside from sensors, they can also be utilized for converting either mechanical or thermal energies into electrical energies due to high pyroelectric coefficients.     

基于前瞻性时空重排扫描的蚌埠市新冠肺炎疫情预警模型

为研究地级市市域使用前瞻性时空重排扫描统计量分析模型对探测新冠肺炎疫情潜在的暴发区进行预警的可行性,利用前瞻性时空扫描模型分析软件SaTScan 9.6及地理信息可视化表达软件ArcGIS 10.8对安徽省蚌埠市2020年1月23日至2月23日新冠肺炎疫情进行逐日模拟监测预警;通过时空重排扫描分析,探测出4个集簇,其中非随机性显著的集簇2个,包含怀远县全域20个乡镇、固镇县3个乡镇、蚌埠市区17个街道及开发区,其中第1集簇为低聚集区,涵盖1个街道,复现间隔15天;第2集簇为高聚集区,涵盖34个乡镇街道及开发区,复现间隔11天;蚌埠市禹会区、淮上区、蚌山区若干街道及怀远县全域为下一阶段新冠疫情空间聚集强预警的重点区域,前瞻性时空重排扫描分析可应用于地级市疫情防控应急响应检测预警。