共性技术扩散的概念及其特征

在对一般技术扩散概念的综述的基础上,对共性技术扩散的概念和特征进行了分析和研究.并特别指出共性技术扩散的高网络性、高关联性和高政策干预性是其区别于其他专有技术扩散最本质的特征和区别.     

Manchester and the Emergence of an Association Football Culture, 1840–1880: An Alternative Viewpoint

This paper provides a critique of the article by Gary James and Dave Day on ‘The Emergence of an Association Football Culture in Manchester, 1840–1884', published in Sport in History. We suggest an alternative interpretation of Manchester's football history during this period, arguing that Association football was a minor form of football in a city largely dominated by the rugby code. Furthermore, by employing an artificial construct of Manchester the authors have produced the wrong answer to the wrong question. Rather than trying to prove that Manchester developed an important Association football culture, we suggest they ought to have addressed the question of why such a culture did not exist. The contribution to the development of Association football of three isolated ‘transitory’ clubs in a city as large as Manchester is certainly not ‘substantial’. Subsequently, James and Day also fail to exploit fully their evidence for early football in the Manchester area by omitting to relate this properly to the much wider ongoing debate surrounding the origins of football. Conversely, there is ample evidence that ‘substantial’ Association football developments actually occurred in East Lancashire, centred on Bolton, Blackburn and Darwen, developments that are scarcely noted in James and Day's account.     

技术空间扩散范围测度研究——以我国四大直辖市为例

针对以往技术空间扩散测度中存在的问题,从经济地理学的视角出发,利用威尔逊模型对我国四大直辖市技术空间扩散范围进行了测度,研究表明:在科研驱动型经济增长模式下,RD投入强度是影响最终技术空间扩散能力的决定性因素。另外,技术空间扩散过程的耗散性使得我国西部地区缺少有效的技术辐射,技术进步缓慢从而诱发"技术落后陷阱"的出现,最终导致区域经济发展不平衡。最后,根据研究结论给出了相应的政策建议。     

Exploring the forward citation patterns of patents based on the evolution of technology fields

Forward citations of patents have been used extensively to capture the impact of technological knowledge. However, our understanding of the factors shaping patent citation patterns remains limited. One of the main limitations is the lack of scholarly attention paid to the dynamic influences arising from the evolution of technology fields. From an evolutionary perspective, technological impact is not simply determined by the static attributes of a technology itself; it is also dynamically affected by changes in the external conditions. Drawing on this viewpoint, this study suggests a model for understanding patent citation patterns by reflecting the evolution of the technology fields to which each patent belongs. Four such factors are explored: technology cycle time, potential of technological convergence, popularity of the technology field, and technological novelty. Based on the proposed model, we show how expected citation patterns can change as a result of different scenarios for technology field evolution. We conduct a case study of patents in the information technology and healthcare industries to show citation patterns of patents across heterogeneous industries as well as those within an industry. Contributions to the innovation literature and research investment decisions are discussed.     

SNS环境下无形学院的结构与特点透视——以科学网武夷山博客为例

[目的/意义]社交网络(SNS)的悄然兴起引起了学术交流的结构性变化,对交流数据进行挖掘和分析,能够识别社会网络环境下非正式的学术组织--无形学院新的形态结构与特点.[方法/过程]引入社会网络分析方法和信息可视化技术,以科学网活跃博主之一武夷山为例,首先通过对其"好友关系"以及"二级好友(好友之好友)关系"数据的挖掘,对社交网络环境下所形成的无形学院进行探测.其次,从交流方式、人员构成和知识传播3个方面探讨社交网络环境下无形学院的形态结构与特点.[结果/结论]研究发现,"学术博客"作为伴随社交网络而诞生的非正式学术交流工具,是无形学院的一种新的表达方式,它改变了知识的存储与管理;相比较于传统无形学院的人员构成,更加不受学科、地域等方面的限制;知识由无序、零散的扩散转向有序、定向的传播.     

学科知识扩散过程探测研究——以社会网络领域为例

[目的/意义]在知识经济时代,学科知识的扩散与吸收极大地促进了学科的协同、交叉、融合、发展与创新。提出一种量化指标测度与知识语义信息挖掘相结合的学科知识扩散过程探测方法,以期丰富和完善学科知识扩散研究范式与方法,为学科知识管理及决策制定提供可资借鉴的参考。[方法/过程]在经典量化指标测度的基础上,利用形式概念分析方法,结合学科知识语义信息,对知识在学科中的传播扩散过程进行系统研究,挖掘学科知识扩散数量及主题特征;建立学科知识扩散Logistic模型,并对其演化趋势进行预测;最后,以社会网络领域为例,进行实证研究。[结果/结论]知识在各学科中的应用范畴不断拓展,其扩散过程符合幂率分布特征;不同学科吸纳和接受的领域知识主题存在一定的差异;当前社会网络知识在学科中的传播扩散进程正处于成熟期。     

基于结构方程模型的复杂产品系统技术扩散影响因素分析

为了探究复杂产品系统技术扩散的影响因素及其之间的关系,在分析复杂产品系统技术扩散的影响因素的基础上提出假设,应用结构方程方法构建复杂产品系统技术扩散影响因素的结构方程模型,结合问卷调查结果运用结构方程模型分析验证假设,并通过模型计算路径系数。结果表明企业能力、环境因素和技术本身因素三者相互影响,并对复杂产品系统的技术扩散有显著性影响。     

环境规制对企业绿色技术创新的影响研究及政策启示

随着工业化经济的快速发展,环境问题成为人们关注的焦点,环境规制及导致经济方式发生根本改变的绿色技术创新成为研究热点.本文通过理论模型分析排污税、排污许可证、统一的排放标准三种环境规制政策与企业采纳绿色技术程度之间的关系发现,当传统技术和绿色减排技术的边际减排成本(MAC)曲线存在交点时,三种规制政策对企业绿色技术创新与扩散的影响模式相同;企业采纳绿色技术的程度与环境规制政策强度呈现“倒U型”关系.若考虑企业的边际减排成本等异质性,则企业采纳绿色技术的程度与环境规制政策之间的关系会呈现更为复杂的非单调关系,可能存在“倒W型”.合理的环境规制政策配合适度的严厉性可以激励绿色技术创新,有利于实现经济发展和环境保护的双赢.     

Dual-norm based dynamic graph diffusion network for temporal prediction

Precise prediction of Multivariate Time Series (MTS) has been playing a pivotal role in numerous kinds of applications. Existing works have made significant efforts to capture temporal tendency and periodical patterns, but they always ignore abrupt variations and heterogeneous/spatial associations of sensory data. In this paper, we develop a dual normalization (dual-norm) based dynamic graph diffusion network (DNGDN) to capture hidden intricate correlations of MTS data for temporal prediction. Specifically, we design time series decomposition and dual-norm mechanism to learn the latent dependencies and alleviate the adverse effect of abnormal MTS data. Furthermore, a dynamic graph diffusion network is adopted for adaptively exploring the spatial correlations among variables. Extensive experiments are performed on 3 real world experimental datasets with 8 representative baselines for temporal prediction. The performances of DNGDN outperforms all baselines with at least 4% lower MAPE over all datasets.     

基于信息扩散理论的洞庭湖区农业旱灾风险评估

以洞庭湖区2000~2009年的农业旱灾灾情统计数据为样本,运用基于信息扩散理论的模糊数学模型建立其在一定的论域上的模糊关系,然后据此得出旱灾指标的概率分布,继而得到旱灾指标的超越概率,最后分析洞庭湖区干旱的历史重现概率。结果表明:洞庭湖区几乎年年发生干旱;每5.2年就要发生1次受灾面积超过50%的中度干旱;约每20年就发生1次80%的严重干旱。