岩体边坡中流体包裹体参数的逐步回归分析

以白鹤岭铁路隧道岩体边坡为例，在垂直边坡面的4条剖面上采集了不同变形和破坏状态岩石中的16个定向样品，测定了流体包裹体迹面（FluidInclusionPlane简称为FIP）特征参数（包括FIP的长度、形态、连通性、闭合性、粗糙度、交叉性质等参数）与包裹体热动力学参数（包括FIP中包裹体的均一温度、均一压力、包裹体流体密度、流体包裹体成分和氧逸度等参数）。同时，将样品中裂隙分布的分形维数作为描述岩石变形破坏状态的定量指标，采用反馈式逐步回归方法分析这些分形维数与所选7个FIP参数的定量关系。分析表明，影响岩体变形和破裂的主要微观参数包括两个FIP特征参数（即粗糙度系数和分布密度）和两个包裹体热力学参数（即水溶液包裹体均一温度和CO2-H2O包裹体均一温度）。由于岩体的变形和（或）破坏不仅可使FIP中包裹体成分泄漏、也会使FIP迹面特征参数和包裹体热动力学参数发生改变，因此，岩体边坡中流体包裹体参数的逐步回归分析结果对进一步研究岩体变形破坏过程与边坡稳定性将具有重要的参考价值。     

拒斥还是继续比较对话

面对"语境回归"对"比较对话"批评,指出拒斥"比较对话"的合法性是不现实的,分析了"比较对话"的必要性和可能性,并重申了"比较对话"的合法性。     

论毛泽东改变“八大”关于社会主要矛盾判断的必然性——兼论“八大”路线中断的原因

中共“八大”政治报告决议关于国内主要矛盾“实质”的表述,在会议结束后不久就产生分歧,结合当时国内外形势的影响,理解改变社会主要矛盾的判断存在着一定的必然性。     

北京市政府采购促进科技成果转化的实证分析

我国政府提出实施创新驱动发展战略,强调科技成果转化对提高社会生产力以及推动经济转型的重要意义。本文利用北京市GDP、社会固定资产投资及劳动力数量得出反映科技成果转化水平的技术进步率,建立向量自回归模型(VAR),对北京市政府采购额、高技术产业科技活动人员和技术进步率三个变量的动态关系进行实证分析。研究表明,北京市政府采购对技术进步率和科技活动人员增加的贡献度分别达20.78%、40.28%,科技活动人员增加对技术进步率的贡献度达15.82%。可见,政府采购科技创新产品,可促进科技成果转化,推动科技创新;通过引进高技术人才,优先采购本国服务,将对科技创新产生显著推动作用。为此,北京市政府应提高本国科技产品采购比重,将取得我国永久居留权的国外人才纳入本国服务提供者的自然人范畴,以记点积分系统、移民职业清单制度创造更优越的环境引进国外高技术人才,推动我国科技创新成果的转化。     

Supervised automatic evaluation for summarization with voted regression model

The high quality evaluation of generated summaries is needed if we are to improve automatic summarization systems. Although human evaluation provides better results than automatic evaluation methods, its cost is huge and it is difficult to reproduce the results. Therefore, we need an automatic method that simulates human evaluation if we are to improve our summarization system efficiently. Although automatic evaluation methods have been proposed, they are unreliable when used for individual summaries. To solve this problem, we propose a supervised automatic evaluation method based on a new regression model called the voted regression model (VRM). VRM has two characteristics: (1) model selection based on ‘corrected AIC’ to avoid multicollinearity, (2) voting by the selected models to alleviate the problem of overfitting. Evaluation results obtained for TSC3 and DUC2004 show that our method achieved error reductions of about 17–51% compared with conventional automatic evaluation methods. Moreover, our method obtained the highest correlation coefficients in several different experiments.     

线性模型中相关附加信息全部损失的条件(英文)

通过讨论回归系数的混合估计和Bayes估计的相关附加信息全部损失的条件,本文给出了线性模型中选择相关附加样本应遵守的一个原则,并研究了两个应用问题。     

英国的绥靖政策探析

二战爆发前后，英国鉴于自身国力衰 落，为保全其世界霸权地位，对法西斯德国采取了绥靖政策，它与英国传统的均势外交政策是连续性与中断性的统一。     

The causal effect of an extra year of schooling on skills and knowledge in Latin America. Evidence from PISA

Abstract

In this paper, we estimate the causal effect of an extra year of schooling on mathematics performance for seven Latin American countries based on PISA 2012. To that end we exploit exogenous variation in students’ birthdates around the school entry cut-off date using both sharp and fuzzy Regression Discontinuity designs. We find strong effects of an extra year of schooling in most countries, which amount to a 30% increase in PISA test scores in Brazil, 18% in Uruguay, 7% in Argentina and 6% in Costa Rica. These effects differ from the typical estimates obtained from simple regressions or multilevel models and are large enough to allow 15-year-old students to reach higher proficiency levels, suggesting significant potential gains of reducing dropout rates in the region. Finally, we stress the importance of taking into account the effects of school entry cut-off dates on PISA samples to avoid making unfair international comparisons.     

从女子标枪成绩的多元回归分析中看样本含量与F 的取值对结论的影响

以女子标枪6 个变量因素为例, 对三组不同样本含量和F 的取值进行了多元回归分析, 结果表明: 在样本的成绩范围内, 样本n = 10 建立的“最优”回归方程与样本n = 60 , n = 30 的结论基本相同. 认为用样本n = 10建立“最优”回归方程既方便又省力. 强调在作逐步回归分析时, F 的检验临界值要取低些, 并指出: 在指标因素过多时, 应先聚类, 然后分别选出影响最大的指标建立“最优”方程.     

对陈独秀中止国共"党内合作"主张的再认识

陈独秀曾极力反对国共"党内合作",后来又几次提出中共党员退出国民党的主张.其原因是随着革命的深入发展,国共关系日趋恶化,陈独秀感到国共"党内合作"的基础已遭到破坏.但国共"党内合作"是历史的选择,并且由于共产国际的坚决反对和中国革命的指导者采取了机会主义的平衡策略,从而使国共"党内合作"得以维持下来.