基于Noisy-or gate 和贝叶斯网络的研发项目风险评估方法

在没有充足样本数据时,为有效地管理各种风险,本文提出了一个全新的研发项目风险评估模型,这个模型主要是基于Noisy-or gate 和贝叶斯网络进行评估。该模型在贝叶斯网络节点满足构成Noisy-or gate模型的前提下,利用历史数据或专家判断得到有效的网络参数,进而推断出每一项风险因素发生的概率,结合风险影响权重得到综合风险影响值,并对比得到高风险因素,为风险管理提供依据。通过与AHP方法评估结果对比表明,该模型可以准确地评估研发项目的风险,从而提高风险管理的效率。     

一类二阶非线性微分方程的振动性

利用函数类、算子方法和广义Riccati变换研究了二阶非线性微分方程(r(t)y'(t))'+Q(t,y(t),y'(t))=0,t≥t0的振动性,给出了Kamenev型振动准则,改进和推广了现有的若干结论.     

竞技体育发展方式基本理论问题探析

摘要：转变发展方式是我国“十二五”期间体育事业发展的主线,对竞技体育发展方式基本理论问题的研究至关重要。为深化对于竞技体育发展方式转变的理论认识,运用文献资料法,在认识竞技体育发展方式概念、分类和评价的基础上,提出了竞技体育发展方式转变的目标、要求和支撑条件。研究认为：1）竞技体育发展方式转变的目标为集约、均衡、和谐、常规化的发展等。2）要求为科学认识转向、转幅、转速问题,合理处理旧发展方式与新发展方式的关系,正确处理转变的短期效应与长期效应的关系。3）竞技体育发展方式转变的支撑条件为人才资源、科技和管理创新、变革的共识性认识等。为竞技体育发展方式的转变研究提供学理上的支撑。     

Multi-stage Internet public opinion risk grading analysis of public health emergencies: An empirical study on Microblog in COVID-19

In the period of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), millions of people participate in the discussion of COVID-19 on the Internet, which can easily trigger public opinion and threaten social stability. This paper creatively proposes a multi-stage risk grading model of Internet public opinion for public health emergencies. On the basis of general public opinion risk grading analysis, the model continuously pays attention to the risk level of Internet public opinion based on the time scale of regular or major information updates. This model combines Analytic Hierarchy Process Sort II (AHPSort II) and Swing Weighting (SW) methods and proposes a new Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method – AHPSort II-SW. Intuitionistic fuzzy number and linguistic fuzzy number are introduced into the model to evaluate the criteria that cannot be quantified. The multi-stage model is tested using more than 2,000 textual data about COVID-19 collected from Microblog, a leading social media platform in China. Seven public opinion risk assessments were conducted from January 23 to April 8, 2020. The empirical results show that in the early COVID-19 outbreak, the risk of public opinion is more serious on macroscopic view. In details, the risk of public opinion decreases slowly with time, but the emergence of important events may still increase the risk of public opinion. The analysis results are in line with the actual situation and verify the effectiveness of the method. Comparative analysis indicates the improved method is proved to be superior and effective, sensitivity analysis confirms its stability. Finally, management suggestions was provided, this study contributes to the literature on public opinion risk assessment and provides implications for practice.     

Teaching Prospect Theory with the Deal or No Deal Game Show

Recent evidence indicates that decision makers are more sensitive to potential losses than gains. Loss aversion psychology has led behavioural economists to look beyond expected utility by developing prospect theory. We demonstrate this theory using the Deal or No Deal game show.     

企业眼中的人才标准

根据唐山港股份集团有限公司的人才需求与校企合作现状，认为高校应培养能胜任本职工作并安心于本职工作，追求工作业绩的应用型人才。     

汉英思维模式差异视角里的《英语课程标准》

语言是思维的外衣,思维影响语言。汉英思维模式差异不仅导致语言结构的不同,而且影响教学观念、教学模式的形成。受汉民族思维模式支配的我国传统英语教学忽视学习主体,效果不佳。《英语课程标准》坚持以人为本,面向全体的价值取向,开辟了有效的英语教学新途径。     

‘Personal’and‘critical’? Exam criteria,engagement with texts,and real readers’ responses

This article explores how exam criteria require pupils to engage with texts at once 'personally' and 'critically'. It theorises this dichotomy, suggesting problems it presents in a classroom. Observing that dwindling opportunities for creative writing impede personal engagement, it considers the possibilities suggested by the imaginative writings of two pupils for resolving the dichotomy.     

论钟嵘的评诗标准

钟嵘坚持风力与丹采相结合的评诗标准，其侧重点是意怨和词丽两条。通过对意怨的独特解释，钟嵘形成评价陶渊明和曹操诗的独特视角。钟嵘在具体地品评诗歌时，体现了刚柔相济的美学原则。     

资源选择的质量评价准则——虚拟馆藏选择评价刍议之三

在《资源采集管理政策--虚拟馆藏选择评价刍议之二》提出的虚拟馆藏资源选择的范围政策基础上,进一步提出虚拟馆藏资源选择的相关质量评价准则。