Screening for potential child maltreatment in parents of a newborn baby: The predictive validity of an Instrument for early identification of Parents At Risk for child Abuse and Neglect (IPARAN)

For preventive purposes it is important to be able to identify families with a high risk of child maltreatment at an early stage. Therefore we developed an actuarial instrument for screening families with a newborn baby, the Instrument for identification of Parents At Risk for child Abuse and Neglect (IPARAN). The aim of this study was to assess the predictive validity of the IPARAN and to examine whether combining actuarial and clinical methods leads to an improvement of the predictive validity. We examined the predictive validity by calculating several performance indicators (i.e., sensitivity, specificity and the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve [AUC]) in a sample of 4692 Dutch families with newborns. The outcome measure was a report of child maltreatment at Child Protection Services during a follow-up of 3 years. For 17 children (.4%) a report of maltreatment was registered. The predictive validity of the IPARAN was significantly better than chance (AUC = .700, 95% CI [.567–.832]), in contrast to a low value for clinical judgement of nurses of the Youth Health Care Centers (AUC = .591, 95% CI [.422–.759]). The combination of the IPARAN and clinical judgement resulted in the highest predictive validity (AUC = .720, 95% CI [.593–.847]), however, the difference between the methods did not reach statistical significance. The good predictive validity of the IPARAN in combination with clinical judgment of the nurse enables professionals to assess risks at an early stage and to make referrals to early intervention programs.     

研究与开发(R&D)项目评估方法的一种比较分析

过去,大量文献资料介绍了关于研究与开发(R&D)项目评估的方法,并大多集中在R&D项目评估方法得以建立的最根本的理论基础方面,很少论及方法的有效性和适应性,没有对方法的优劣和应用进行比较分析。在运用层次分析法(AHP)的基础上,对一些主要的R&D项目评估方法进行比较分析,研究了影响这些评估方法有效性的各种因素,并应用敏感性分析法确定出哪些是关键因素。     

企业技术创新风险分析

实践证明,技术创新风险越来越成为我国工业企业技术创新的障碍.本文分析了企业技术创新风险的来源,讨论了企业技术创新风险管理的主要内容,并对企业技术创新风险评价问题进行了详细探讨.     

Information security risk analysis model using fuzzy decision theory

This paper proposes a risk analysis model for information security assessment, which identifies and evaluates the sequence of events – referred to as alternatives – in a potential accident scenario following the occurrence of an initiating event corresponding to abuses of Information Technology systems. In order to perform this evaluation, this work suggests the use of Event Tree Analysis combined with fuzzy decision theory. The contributions of the present proposal are: the development of a taxonomy of events and scenarios, the ranking of alternatives based on the criticality of the risk, considering financial losses, and finally, the provision of information regarding the causes of information system attacks of highest managerial relevance for organizations. We included an illustrative example regarding a data center aiming to illustrate the applicability of the proposed model. To assess its robustness, we analyzed twelve alternatives considering two different methods of setting probabilities of the occurrence of events. Results showed that deliberate external database services attack represent the most risky alternative.     

网站排行榜评价模式与网站信息资源评价标准

文章分析了网站排行榜各种评价模式的优缺点，提出了网站信息资源评价标准。     

创新开放度调节下的供应商信任、感知风险与企业科技服务购买意愿关系研究

以信任、感知风险和创新开放度理论为基础,构建影响中小企业科技服务购买意愿的概念框架并提出研究假设予以论证。以324家宁波中小企业为样本进行实证研究,结果表明：供应商信任(认知信任、情感信任)对企业科技服务购买意愿具有显著正向影响,而感知风险对企业科技服务购买意愿产生显著负向影响；供应商信任与科技服务感知风险之间具有显著负相关关系,且情感信任维度相关性更高；创新开放度对供应商情感信任、感知风险与企业科技服务购买意愿关系的调节作用显著。     

同行评议中专家识别研究

同行评议方法在评审科研项目申请、科学出版物,评定科研成果、学位与职称、研究机构(优秀人才、学术团队)的运作等方面发挥不可替代的作用。实践表明：影响同行评议方法使用效果的两个关键环节是评价标准的制定与同行专家选择,排除评价标准制定的不科学性,专家选择则成了影响评议质量的比较关键的因素。在此,结合专家库建设的研究,初步提出了专家识别标准与指标体系。     

论知识管理的风险对图书馆人的挑战

简述了知识管理的涵义及特点，论述了知识管理在企业竞争中的风险性，图书馆人面对知识管理的挑战如何进行管理体系和知识体系的创新。     

基于利益相关者核心价值分析的公共项目成功标准研究

对公共项目成功的判断标准的讨论由来已久,但是始终没能形成一个统一的标准,公共项目成功的概念依然模糊。本文试图从一个新的视角来判断公共项目的成功,即从界定和分析公共项目的利益相关者出发,形成以公平和效率均衡为基础的公共项目核心价值,建立公共项目核心价值生成模型和实现模型。最后结合价值网这一比较新颖的分析方法探讨了形成和实现公共项目核心价值的可行性。