VaR模型在我国养老基金投资风险控制中的应用

养老基金的投资面临多种风险,要实现其保值增值,必须进行风险度量和监控。VaR模型作为一种新的金融风险管理工具,因其有别于传统的金融风险管理工具的特点,在西方受到广泛青睐。探讨该模型在我国养老基金投资风险控制中的应用。     

多元化经营与风险——基于投资组合理论的分析

多元化经营与风险的关系是理论界争论的一个焦点.多元化经营能否分散风险,许多专家各有不同看法,本文试图通过投资组合理论说明风险与多元化经营的关系。     

Child abuse potential inventory and parenting behavior: Relationships with high-risk correlates

The primary purpose of this research was to examine the construct validity of the Child Abuse Potential Inventory by comparing maltreating and high-risk parents' CAP Inventory abuse scores to their behavior during interactions with their children. A second purpose was to determine the degree to which CAP Inventory scores and parenting behavior were related to several known correlates of abuse, as measured by parent and teacher reports. Participants (n = 41) included abusive and high-risk parents and their children referred to a treatment group. Correlational analyses revealed that CAP Inventory scores and observed parenting style yielded highly related findings, supporting construct validity of the CAP Inventory. However, the CAP Inventory and observed behavior index showed a different pattern of relationships to the risk correlates. Implications for assessment of risk status are discussed and recommendations are provided for continued research.     

模糊综合评价法在高校内部审计风险评价中的应用

首先分析了应用模糊综合评价法的可行性，然后利用模糊综合评价方法对高校内部审计风险进行评价，并予以实例详细说明，以达到有效控制内部审计风险的目的。     

风险社会下我国刑法理论的调整

为了更好地应对风险社会给我国带来的挑战,应对刑法理论进行调整,即刑法体系由罪责刑法向安全刑法转变,刑法机能应以保护社会为主、保障人权为辅,刑罚价值观的侧重点应是秩序而不是自由。     

沈阳市房地产市场的预测与预警

近年来,沈阳房地产市场结构基本合理,供求基本平衡,房价运行基本稳定,被业界认为是最健康、最具活力的市场,特别是从2010年起,频繁调控接踵而来,但对沈阳房地产市场的影响甚微。为了沈阳房地产市场更稳健地发展,有必要了解沈阳房地产未来的需求状况以及建立起一套有效的房地市场预警体系,这样才能及时发现潜在的问题。本文主要从定量角度来探讨这两个问题,希望能对政府制定政策和开发商投资有一定的参考意义。     

Child protection cases,one size fits all? Cluster analyses of risk and protective factors

BackgroundTo provide effective tailor made case management in Child Protection Services (CPS) a insight is needed into the specific characteristics of the target group. Using the ecological perspective of maltreatment, this study explored poorly known characteristics of the CPS population.ObjectiveTo distinguish CPS subgroups based on risk and protective factors enables tailor made case management that fits the specific needs of these subgroups.Participants and settingWe studied 250 Dutch CPS cases of family supervision by court order that had completed the LIRIK and Action Plan checklists in August 2014–March 2015.MethodsThis quantitative study analyzed risk and protective factors for children and parents reported in client files. Subgroups were identified by two-step cluster analyses. Chi-square analyses identified relations between parental risk subgroups and other groups.ResultsBuilding on the interplay between risk and protective factors on the levels of child, parent and environment, we found five distinct subgroups in the CPS population. The most vulnerable is parents with multiple problems (31%) or socio-economic problems (13%). Parts of both subgroup have limited protective factors. Parents with major life events (16%) or poor parenting (13%) are characterized by single-level problems. One subgroup (28%), the unaccepted, has no parental risk factors registered.ConclusionsStudying client files can lead to a better understanding of the healthcare needs of the CPS population. To develop and implement more effective case management requires constant dialogue between science, policy, and the experiences of both clients and professional.     

Constellations of risk factors as moderators of the impact of a randomized intervention on students’ reading skills in rural India

Individual, family and community risk factors might determine the success or failure of educational interventions. The study is a secondary analysis, aimed at identifying distinctive constellations of risk for educational attainment, and at exploring whether membership to these constellations moderated the impact of a cluster-randomized reading intervention in rural India. By means of latent profile analysis, four constellations of risk were identified based on individual and family risk-factors. Multilevel cumulative logit models confirmed that the intervention had a positive impact on the outcome, and revealed that profile membership did not moderate the effect of the intervention. However more nuanced analysis showed that the intervention worked differently for children with different risk-profiles depending on contextual factors.     

医药冷链物流在物联网环境下的动态风险评估

首先运用流程图法分析造成物联网环境下医药冷链物流各环节风险的众多因素源,并运用熵权法对风险指标客观赋权建立风险因素评估指标体系,然后利用Ge NIe软件建立动态贝叶斯网络模型对风险环节的关键风险因素进行概率评估。结果显示在风险评估中运输环节风险的发生概率最高,同时企业关于设备的验证选型是影响物联网医药冷链的关键风险因素,这为企业和政府控制药品质量安全管理提供了依据。     

Influence of organization learning on innovation output in manufacturing firms in Kenya

Knowledge entrepreneurship is increasingly becoming important in driving innovation for high levels of competitiveness. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between Organization Learning (OL) and Innovation Output (IO) for improved performance in manufacturing firms in Kenya. The theoretical underpinnings on this study are the Schumpeter’s (1934) innovation theory of and the Gleick (1987) complexity theory. The methodology used was mixed method research because it provides a more holistic understanding of a thematic area. The research design that was used is cross-sectional design because it allows for making observations on different characteristics that exist within a group at a particular time. The target population was manufacturing firms across the country. Multi-stage sampling strategy was used to sample 303 respondents from 101 firms. Primary and secondary data were used to collect both qualitative and quantitative data. The questionnaire, interview schedule and a checklist of key informants were used to collect data. Content validity was used to ascertain the credibility of the research procedure and internal consistency technique was used to test for reliability. Correlation and linear regression were used to determine the relationship between OL and IO. Work disruptions were avoided by making prior arrangements and appointments. The findings indicate that OL has a significant influence on IO. It is recommended that lifelong learning, management support and risk tolerance should be encouraged to improve creativity. High creativity is important in raising the capacity to integrate internal and external knowledge for greater levels of IO. Further research should be carried out to find how customers and suppliers information can be utilized to enriched OL.