A Classic Probability Puzzle

A classic probability puzzle, presenting an absurd result, is analysed. Clearing the confusion caused by this problem sheds light on basic concepts of probability theory.     

人类科学中的新极限论（I）

从新构建的基础理论学的角度,在无穷观及与之密切相关的数量体系的理论框架中讨论人类科学中长期被忽视的现有极限论的基础问题,得到“经典无穷理论体系基础理论中的本质性缺陷决定了人类不可能在经典无穷理论体系的框架中构建科学的极限论,而新无穷观和与之密切相关的新数谱的产生为极限论的体系性和基础理论奠定了新的、牢固的基础,决定了新极限论的产生”的明确结论．     

从时序关系看逻辑悖论

不管是蕴涵关系,等值关系,还是时序关系,它们都是客观世界事物固有的属性。遗憾的是,逻辑学却没能将时序关系纳入自身理论体系当中。它在逻辑学理论体系中的缺失,导致了“逻辑悖论”的产生。实际上,真正的悖论根本不可能存在,它是人们主观错误所造成的一种虚幻的东西。     

Paradoxical transparency? Capital market responses to exploration and exploitation disclosure

We draw on information risk theory and paradox theory to examine the additive and combined effects of disclosing exploration and exploitation information on cost of equity capital. We build on theory that presupposes that the information disclosed by a firm about its innovation activities will reduce information risk of investors. However, we contend that disclosure of exploration and exploitation innovation activities could convey potentially paradoxical expectations about a firm's future value. Based on longitudinal data of the UK FTSE 350 firms from 2011–2016, we show that firms tend to disclose more information related to exploration than exploitation. However, the bulk of market benefits are driven by exploitation rather than exploration disclosures—except for R&D-active firms that are rewarded for exploration disclosure. We also find that the combined disclosure is negatively associated with cost of equity capital, with the sub-population of R&D-active firms particularly accruing synergies from combined disclosure of both exploration and exploitation. These findings suggest that the market differentiates between exploration and exploitation information in addressing information risk, more so than previously assumed. We discuss implications for information-type-dependency in information-risk theory, the outward projection of internal paradoxes, capital market valuations of disclosure by R&D-active firms, opportunity-seeking by large publicly listed corporations, and policy implications.