信用风险评估方法发展趋势

本文追溯和分析了20年以来国内外在信用风险评估方法上的创新、应用及其发展趋势,为我国金融机构信用风险管理提供一些有益的借鉴。     

技术管理内生复杂性的来源与测度研究

在不确定性快速增长的情况下,应对技术管理内生复杂性是进行有效技术管理的重要任务。从复杂性的基本特征入手,在建立技术管理内生复杂性分析框架的基础上,对技术管理内生复杂性的来源进行了研究,构建了技术管理系统内生复杂性的测度模型并进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,技术管理内生复杂性来源于知识、参与者、工具和过程四个要素的复杂性;每个要素的复杂性来源于其自身的构成状况和关系状况;各要素复杂性概率的均等化分布会导致内生复杂性增大。实证研究还展示了技术管理系统内生复杂性的评价和管理过程,表明本研究能够为技术管理复杂性的分析与评价提供有效工具。     

三维地质力学模型试验中光纤传感器的应用研究

近年来，在地下结构三维地质力学模型试验的研究中。多项新技术得到应用和开发，其中也包括采用光纤传感器量测模型材料中的应变和变形，这使模型试验上了一个新台阶。采用光纤传感器量测。对于地质力学模型试验来说还是一项新技术。该文结合在一个大比尺的地质力学模型试验中采用光纤传感器的经验，对它的实际应用及埋设方法做了进一步的探讨和设想。     

基于BGP协议的AS级网络拓扑测量的研究

在分析Internet结构的基础上,主要针对BGP协议在AS级拓扑测量中的应用做了深入的讨论.介绍了自治系统的概念和BGP协议的工作过程,描述了监测运行有BGP协议路由器的路由表以动态构造AS级网络拓扑图的原理,给出了基于BGP协议的AS级网络拓扑测量的算法,并对算法进行了说明.     

法兰直线轴承视觉测量递阶式规划与行为分析

针对法兰直线轴承尺寸系列化与视觉测量过程行为多样化之间的复杂关联影响问题,提出由特征包容方案规划、基本动作规划和工位变换路线规划三阶段组成的递阶式测量行为规划策略,并设计了视觉测量规划与行为评估流程。以某型号方法兰直线轴承为对象,以评估不同测量行为、图像质量及图像处理算法之间的关联影响为任务,进行测量实验研究。实验结果表明,通过对测量行为进行递阶式规划与行为分析,便于获取测量行为变化造成测量结果波动的定量信息,得以反馈行为影响,从而引导行为优化,可促进视觉测量系统前、后处理功能的增强,有助于智能视觉测量的发展。     

Factorial Invariance of the Abbreviated Neighborhood Environment Walkability Scale among Senior Women in the Nurses’ Health Study Cohort

The purpose of this study was to examine the factorial invariance of the Abbreviated Neighborhood Environment Walkability Scale (NEWS-A) across subgroups based on demographic, health-related, behavioral, and environmental characteristics among Nurses’ Health Study participants (N = 2,919; age M = 73.0, SD = 6.9 years) living in California, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania. A series of multigroup confirmatory factor analyses were conducted to evaluate increasingly restrictive hypotheses of factorial invariance. Factorial invariance was supported across age, walking limitations, and neighborhood walking. Only partial scalar invariance was supported across state residence and neighborhood population density. This evidence provides support for using the NEWS-A with older women of different ages, who have different degrees of walking limitations, and who engage in different amounts of neighborhood walking. Partial scalar invariance suggests that researchers should be cautious when using the NEWS-A to compare older adults living in different states and neighborhoods with different levels of population density.     

单源三站外辐射源雷达目标探测性能

论述全向外辐射源雷达空中目标探测系统的主要问题及系统体制损失。针对单源单站（SISO）和单源三站（SITO）两种工作方式,在接收天线阵元数相同的情况下分析探测距离和定位精度。在单源三站条件下推导直角坐标系中的目标速度矢量表达式,并分析速度测量精度。研究结果表明,在一定条件下,单源三站组网方式的空间覆盖范围与单源单站相当,且具有平面定位精度较高,可获得目标速度矢量和技术实现难度小的特点。     

Validity and Reliability of Three Self-Report Instruments for Assessing Attainment of Physical Activity Guidelines in University Students

The purpose of this study was to compare the validity and reliability of three short physical activity self-report instruments to determine their potential for use with university student populations. The participants (N = 155; 44.5% male; 22.9 ± 5.13 years) wore an accelerometer for 9 consecutive days and completed a single-item measure, the a brief two item measure and the International Physical Activity Questionnaire—Short Form questionnaires on day 1 and 9. Correlations between self-reported and accelerometer derived moderate-to-vigorous physical activity levels were moderate for the International Physical Activity Questionnaire—Short Form, while poor for the single-item measure and the a brief two item measure. The agreement level was high with the International Physical Activity Questionnaire—Short Form (77.4%) and moderate for both the single-item measure (45.2 %) and a brief two item measure (44.5 %). The intraclass correlations between the two administrations were moderate to strong across all measures (0.52–0.70) in 133 participants. The International Physical Activity Questionnaire—Short Form is the most suitable of these three self-report instruments for use with this population due to higher correlations and levels of agreement with accelerometry.     

Sport-specific factors predicting player retention in junior cricket

Understanding factors that motivate young athletes to continue participation in sport can help key stakeholders cultivate an environment that fosters long-term participation. This investigation sought to determine the performance and participation factors that influenced continued participation in junior cricket. Administration-level data were collected each annual season across a seven-year period by a community-level junior cricket association in Australia and analysed to identify the performance and participation-based predictors of player retention. All players were males aged <16 years. Players were categorised according to whether they remained in (or departed from) the association at the end of each playing season. A multivariate logistic regression model with a stepwise variable selection was employed to identify significant independent predictors of player retention. The number of innings batted and overs bowled were significant participation-related contributors to junior cricket player retention. Performance factors such as the number of wickets taken and the number of runs scored also significantly influenced player retention. Finally, team age group, the number of previous seasons played and age were also significant factors in player retention. This demonstrates that sufficient opportunity for children to participate in the game and expression of skills competence are key factors for retention in cricket.     

The dynamic control ratio at the equilibrium point (DCRe): introducing relative and absolute reliability scores

Analytical methods to assess thigh muscle balance need to provide reliable data to allow meaningful interpretation. However, reproducibility of the dynamic control ratio at the equilibrium point has not been evaluated yet. Therefore, the aim of this study was to compare relative and absolute reliability indices of its angle and moment values with conventional and functional hamstring–quadriceps ratios. Furthermore, effects of familiarisation and angular velocity on reproducibility were analysed. A number of 33 male volunteers participated in 3 identical test sessions. Peak moments (PMs) were determined unilaterally during maximum concentric and eccentric knee flexion (prone) and extension (supine position) at 0.53, 1.57 and 2.62 rad · s^–1. A repeated measure, ANOVA, confirmed systematic bias. Intra-class correlation coefficients and standard errors of measurement indicated relative and absolute reliability. Correlation coefficients were averaged over respective factors and tested for significant differences. All balance scores showed comparable low-to-moderate relative (<0.8–0.9) and good absolute reliability (<10%). Relative reproducibility of dynamic control equilibrium parameters augmented with increasing angular velocity, but not with familiarisation. At 2.62 rad · s^–1, high (moment: 0.906) to moderate (angle: 0.833) relative reliability scores with accordingly high absolute indices (4.9% and 6.4%) became apparent. Thus, the dynamic control equilibrium is an equivalent method for the reliable assessment of thigh muscle balance.