Reinforcing data bias in crisis information management: The case of the Yemen humanitarian response

The complex and uncertain environment of the humanitarian response to crises can lead to data bias, which can affect decision-making. Evidence of data bias in crisis information management (CIM) remains scattered despite its potentially significant impact on crisis response. To understand what biases emerge in complex crises and how they affect CIM, we conducted a combined interview and document analysis study. Focusing on the largest humanitarian crisis in the world, i.e., the conflict in Yemen, we conducted 25 interviews with managers and analysts of response organizations, and assessed 47 reports and datasets created by response organizations in Yemen. We find evidence of a cycle of bias reinforcement through which bias cascades between field, headquarters and donor levels of crisis response. Researchers, as well as practitioners, need to consider these underlying biases and reinforcement loops because they influence what data can be collected when, by whom, from whom, and how the data is shared and used. To the CIM literature, we contribute an in-depth understanding of how four types of data bias emerge in crises: political, accessibility, topical, and sampling bias.     

粮食生产技术进步有偏演进的福利效应

突破传统经济学的中性技术进步假设,基于2000-2016年粮食产量、价格、生产要素价格等相关数据,采用技术进步福利效应模型从分配效应与产量效应视角实证分析粮食生产技术有偏演进的福利效应,探讨技术有偏演进---要素相对价格变化---农户福利变动这一链条的作用机制,试图揭示粮食生产技术进步有偏演进对不同主体福利变动的影响机理。研究结果表明：粮食生产技术进步有偏演进有利于社会整体福利的改善,从2000年的658.77亿元增加至2016年的2243.25亿元,但这种改善随时间推移达到拐点后呈逐渐递减趋势。经济剩余在生产者与消费者之间以及采用不同生产要素的生产者之间的分配具有非均衡性,消费者与采用生化型技术的生产者获得了绝大多数剩余,采用机械型技术的生产者是遭受福利损失的主体。资本-劳动替代弹性的差异使得粮食生产技术进步有偏演进对三大主粮福利分配的影响各不相同。     

指标数据分布与内部差距对学术期刊评价的影响——以JCR数学期刊为例

以2012年JCR收录的数学期刊为例,采用偏度、峰度、JB检验、极大极小值比、离散系数、中位数均值比分析期刊评价指标的数据分布特点,并首次采用基尼系数分析期刊评价指标的内部差距,发现期刊评价指标普遍是右偏的,并且不服从正态分布;总被引频次、特征因子、即年指标的内部差距较大。期刊评价指标数据偏倚情况从好到坏的次序为:影响因子与5年影响因子>被引半衰期>论文影响分值>即年指标>特征因子>总被引频次。得出结论:指标数据偏倚会影响评价指标的数据标准化;指标数据偏倚会影响期刊一般水平的判断;指标数据右偏会导致期刊评价值偏低;最好选取数据偏倚情况相对较好的指标来评价期刊平均水平;数据偏倚对基于传统回归的计量研究影响较大。该结论有待进一步检验。     

对工程风险认知的主观贝叶斯分析

风险是不确定的危险,可以表示为事件发生概率及其后果的函数。工程风险具有复杂性,因此,工程风险是多个不确定性因素发生的概率及其后果的函数。对工程风险存在认知偏差,我们通过对工程风险的认知偏差中的主观概率进行分析,从而解释在对工程风险的认知中公众对风险的认知与实际的客观风险之间存在差距;专家和公众对风险的认知存在差异;不同个体对风险的认知差异;个体对风险认知会改变;个体对风险认知最终趋同等现象。     

Abnormal emotional processing in maltreated children diagnosed of Complex Posttraumatic Stress Disorder

Maltreated children usually show a specific pattern of emotional and behavioral symptoms that exceed those relating to posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). These symptoms have been defined as Complex PTSD (CPTSD). The underlying attentional mechanisms of abnormal emotional processing and their relation to the clinical presentation of CPTSD are not well understood. A visual dot-probe paradigm involving pre-attentive (i.e., 500 ms) and attentive (i.e., 1500 ms) presentation rates of neutral versus emotional (i.e., angry, happy or sad) facial expressions was applied. Twenty-one maltreated CPTSD children were compared with twenty-six controls. The results are as follows: an attention bias away from threatening faces and an attentional bias towards sad faces were observed in maltreated CPTSD children during pre-attentive and attentive processing. Whereas the attentional bias away from angry faces was associated with social problems, the attentional bias towards sad faces was associated with depressive and withdrawn symptoms. Therefore, CPTSD children develop maladaptive negative cognitive styles, which may underlie not only social problems (by a cognitive avoidance of threatening stimuli) but also depressive symptoms (by a cognitive approach to sad stimuli). Attention processing abnormalities should be considered as therapeutic targets for new treatment approaches in this population.     

Reporting errors and biases in published empirical findings: Evidence from innovation research

Errors and biases in published results compromise the reliability of empirical research, posing threats to the cumulative research process and to evidence-based decision making. We provide evidence on reporting errors and biases in innovation research. We find that 45% of the articles in our sample contain at least one result for which the provided statistical information is not consistent with reported significance levels. In 25% of the articles, at least one strong reporting error is diagnosed where a statistically non-significant finding becomes significant or vice versa using the common significance threshold of 0.1. The error rate at the test level is very small with 4.0% exhibiting any error and 1.4% showing strong errors. We also find systematically more marginally significant findings compared to marginally non-significant findings at the 0.05 and 0.1 thresholds of statistical significance. These discontinuities indicate the presence of reporting biases. Explorative analysis suggests that discontinuities are related to authors’ affiliations and to a lesser extent the article’s rank in the issue and the style of reporting.     

《纳尼亚传奇》中的女性歧视现象研究

《纳尼亚传奇》是20世纪最佳儿童图书之一,但作品中存在着种族偏见、贬低女性等瑕疵。本文试图从白女巫与阿斯兰、迪格雷与波莉、彼得与苏珊等男女形象的对比分析入手,论证作者在作品中流露出的对女性的一些偏见。     

儿童分类偏好的实验研究(英文)

本实验研究了3-4岁幼儿发展物体命名的可能性和给物体命名有怎样的分类偏好。本实验主要研究了两组儿童,每组10个人。一组的平均年龄是3岁。他们被分成两组,其中五个选择目标物体具有新名字的分类,另五个没有名字。另一组平均年龄是4岁,实验程序同上。实验结果显示儿童的倾向符合分类偏向。     

用51单片机驱动动态笔段式LCD及Proteus仿真

在分析多背极动态笔段式LCD的驱动原理及其控制逻辑的基础上,使用AT89C51单片机对VIM-332-DP动态笔段式LCD显示屏实行显示驱动.并给出AT89C51单片机的驱动电路、C语言编程方法及其Proteus仿真的结果.