Guiding and modelling quality improvement in higher education institutions

The article considers the process of creating quality improvement in higher education institutions from the point of view of current organisational theory and social-science modelling techniques. The author considers the higher education institution as a functioning complex of rules, norms and other organisational features and reviews the social mechanisms and processes through which agencies can stimulate quality improvement. The article provides a few examples of how these social processes might be modelled using social simulation techniques, including agent-based models, discrete event simulation and other modelling techniques developed for representing complex social processes of coordination and cooperation. A better representation of universities as complexes of organisations will support more effective quality improvement by higher education leaders and external agencies.     

行动因果论及其能动性消失问题

行动因果论(CTA)是行动哲学领域对行动进行界定和解释的标准理论,它认为行动可以化归为一种事件,且作为行动者心理状态的基本理由就是行动的原因。然而,CTA面临一些挑战,比如门德尔等哲学家所认为的,CTA有时候无法刻画行动者在实施行动时所发挥的能动性。近年来,斯洛瑟等人试图给出“能动性消失问题”的回应,进而为CTA的主流地位进行辩护。分析这些辩护的缺点可以发现,CTA的能动性消失问题是一个很困难的问题。站在一种较为温和的立场上,能动性消失问题对于CTA具有重要的意义。     

存在者与存在着之区别——地理学批判实在论对巴斯卡批判实在论的偏离

地理学把实在论哲学引入本领域过程中对实在论进行了重构,重构过程中地理学批判实在论对其先驱巴斯卡批判实在论“存在着”哲学产生了偏离,其真正理论源泉是巴斯卡的哲学老师哈里的“存在者”实在论体系。“存在者”哲学中构成论的缺陷可以被“存在着”哲学中的生成论范式所弥补。     

Inferring Longitudinal Relationships Between Variables: Model Selection Between the Latent Change Score and Autoregressive Cross-Lagged Factor Models

This research focuses on the problem of model selection between the latent change score (LCS) model and the autoregressive cross-lagged (ARCL) model when the goal is to infer the longitudinal relationship between variables. We conducted a large-scale simulation study to (a) investigate the conditions under which these models return statistically (and substantively) different results concerning the presence of bivariate longitudinal relationships, and (b) ascertain the relative performance of an array of model selection procedures when such different results arise. The simulation results show that the primary sources of differences in parameter estimates across models are model parameters related to the slope factor scores in the LCS model (specifically, the correlation between the intercept factor and the slope factor scores) as well as the size of the data (specifically, the number of time points and sample size). Among several model selection procedures, correct selection rates were higher when using model fit indexes (i.e., comparative fit index, root mean square error of approximation) than when using a likelihood ratio test or any of several information criteria (i.e., Akaike’s information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, consistent AIC, and sample-size-adjusted BIC).     

中国水泥生产碳排放系数省区空间差异性及成因分析

中国作为全球最大水泥生产国,水泥生产碳排放量大。除因产能、产量规模差异形成省区间排放总量差异外,碳排放系数区域差异也影响着总排放量不同。本文以省区为单元,基于全国20个主要水泥生产省区的碳排放系数抽样调查基础数据,分析和比较了省区间水泥熟料工艺碳排放系数、熟料燃料碳排放系数、水泥工艺碳排放系数、水泥燃料碳排放系数及间接碳排放系数的空间差异,结合ArcGIS对各类碳排放系数的空间差异分布进行直观体现;并以生产线为对象分析省区间水泥生产碳排放系数存在空间差异的原因。相关分析结果表明：水泥熟料工艺碳排放系数在总体上呈现由西部、中部省区向东部省区递减的态势,差异性产生的原因主要是省区间水泥用石灰石品质的不同,即生料中石灰石的CaO含量起到基本决定作用,替代材料用量及CaO比例也会产生一定影响;熟料燃料碳排放系数总体分布格局是东部沿海省区相对较低,中西部省区较高,差异原因主要是各省区水泥生产线所用煤炭种类及低位发热值的差异。煤炭低位发热值较高的省区,燃料碳排放系数就越小;水泥工艺碳排放系数及燃料碳排放系数的总体格局是多数东部沿海省区相对较低,中西部多数省区相对较高。差异主要与水泥熟料比直接相关,熟料比越低则水泥碳排放系数亦越小;间接碳排放系数主要由大区电力生产碳排放系数所决定,但水泥生产线余热发电对间接碳排放系数亦有影响。     

Assessing Sensitivity to Unmeasured Confounding Using a Simulated Potential Confounder

ABSTRACT

A major obstacle to developing evidenced-based policy is the difficulty of implementing randomized experiments to answer all causal questions of interest. When using a nonexperimental study, it is critical to assess how much the results could be affected by unmeasured confounding. We present a set of graphical and numeric tools to explore the sensitivity of causal estimates to the presence of an unmeasured confounder. We characterize the confounder through two parameters that describe the relationships between (a) the confounder and the treatment assignment and (b) the confounder and the outcome variable. Our approach has two primary advantages over similar approaches that are currently implemented in standard software. First, it can be applied to both continuous and binary treatment variables. Second, our method for binary treatment variables allows the researcher to specify three possible estimands (average treatment effect, effect of the treatment on the treated, effect of the treatment on the controls). These options are all implemented in an R package called treatSens. We demonstrate the efficacy of the method through simulations. We illustrate its potential usefulness in practice in the context of two policy applications.     

An Alternative Approach for Nonlinear Latent Variable Models

In the last decades there has been an increasing interest in nonlinear latent variable models. Since the seminal paper of Kenny and Judd, several methods have been proposed for dealing with these kinds of models. This article introduces an alternative approach. The methodology involves fitting some third-order moments in addition to the means and covariances. This article discusses how the model equations can be formulated and how several standard tests, like the model fit and Lagrange multiplier tests, can be performed. The new method compares favorably with the maximum likelihood method in several studies and can provide evidence of interaction that earlier approaches might ignore.     

东北三省经济增长关联性的实证研究

通过实证分析发现,东北三省的经济增长存在着分层现象,辽宁省对其他两省的经济增长带动作用不强,而黑龙江和吉林两省的经济增长存在着一定的相互促进作用.此外,通过脉冲响应函数,进一步发现东北三省经济增长的关联性强度较弱,且不稳定,东北三省作为整体并未形成促进经济增长的长期良性机制.最后,从增强东北三省区域经济增长关联性的角度出发,提出了推动东北三省区域经济协调发展的政策建议.     

银行信贷规模、结构、效率与产业结构互动研究——基于河北省的实证分析

在对银行信贷与产业结构调整进行研究述评及现状分析的基础上,选取河北省2004-2013年的年度数据,运用多元回归方法和基于C-D生产函数下的贡献度差异分析方法,从产业结构调整的路径入手,选择银行信贷规模、信贷结构和信贷效率3个层面对银行信贷与产业结构升级之间的相关关系和因果关系进行了实证研究.结果表明,信贷效率对产业结构升级的贡献度最大,其次是信贷结构,最后是信贷规模.但是整体上河北省银行信贷与产业结构升级并未实现互动发展.在此基础上提出了河北省银行信贷与产业结构良性互动发展的对策建议.     

民办大学英语学习者成败归因调查与分析

本研究以燕京理工学院2011级学生英语学习成败归因问卷调查的数据及其在2011年英语入学考试中的成绩为基础,探索民办大学英语学习者成败归因的特点与趋势。研究发现高分组和低分组的被试的归因趋势不存在显著性差异,主要归因于兴趣(内部、稳定、可控)、努力和方法(内部、不稳定、可控)这三种因素。