大学生逃课：现状、原因及对策

逃课成了大学里一个普遍的现象并且似乎成为了一种＂潮流＂,表现为以下特征;学生逃课以＂不去,也不点到＂为主要手段;专业课旷课学生少,选修课和公共课旷课学生多;女生的逃课不再是＂羞答答＂的行为;城镇学生逃课率高于农村学生;党员逃课率相对较低。大学生逃课的原因主要有：教师上课不能给学生思维与学术的启迪和熏陶,教学管理缺陷,受同伴群体的影响,对逃课的危害性认识不足,同学间相互监督不够。降低学生逃课的主要对策：提高教师自身素质,改善教学方法;优化课程设置;深化管理体制改革,严厉执行考勤措施;提高学生的思想觉悟,增强自我控制力;正确引导学生认识逃课的危害性,转变就业观念。     

Causal Mediation Analysis With a Binary Outcome and Multiple Continuous or Ordinal Mediators: Simulations and Application to an Alcohol Intervention

We investigate a method to estimate the combined effect of multiple continuous/ordinal mediators on a binary outcome: (a) fit a structural equation model with probit link for the outcome and identity/probit link for continuous/ordinal mediators, (b) predict potential outcome probabilities, and (c) compute natural direct and indirect effects. Step 2 involves rescaling the latent continuous variable underlying the outcome to address residual mediator variance and covariance. We evaluate the estimation of risk-difference- and risk-ratio-based effects (RDs, RRs) using the maximum likelihood (ML), mean-and-variance-adjusted weighted least squares (WLSMV) and Bayes estimators in Mplus. Across most variations in path-coefficient and mediator-residual-correlation signs and strengths, and confounding situations investigated, the method performs well with all estimators, but favors ML/WLSMV for RDs with continuous mediators, and Bayes for RRs with ordinal mediators. Bayes outperforms ML/WLSMV regardless of mediator type when estimating RRs with small potential outcome probabilities and in two other special cases. An adolescent alcohol prevention study is used for illustration.     

汉语因果复句的关联标记模式与“联系项居中原则”

本文试图研究汉语因果复句的关联标记模式,并探讨联系项居中原则是如何起作用的。文章主体包括三个部分。(一)汉语因果复句的关联标记模式可以分为三类,即居中粘接式、居端依赖式和前后配套式,其他语言因果复句的关联标记模式基本上在这三类之内。汉语因果复句标记模式的特征是模式齐全,标记前置。(二)汉语因句、果句的主语是否一致,只会对因句在前时因句标记的位置产生影响。由于联系项居中倾向的影响力较强,用于后句的关联标记一般都放在主语的前边。(三)汉语因果复句的关联标记,居中程度并不相同,以位置、停顿为标准进行比较,可以得到所以/因此/因而/于是>以致/因为>由于的居中程度序列。联系项居中程度的探讨,深化和发展了Dik(1997)的联系项居中原则。     

Causal Inference and COVID: Contrasting Methods for Evaluating Pandemic Impacts Using State Assessments

In the spring of 2021, just 1 year after schools were forced to close for COVID-19, state assessments were administered at great expense to provide data about impacts of the pandemic on student learning and to help target resources where they were most needed. Using state assessment data from Colorado, this article describes the biggest threats to making valid inferences about student learning to study pandemic impacts using state assessment data: measurement artifacts affecting the comparability of scores, secular trends, and changes in the tested population. The article compares three statistical approaches (the Fair Trend, baseline student growth percentiles, and multiple regression with demographic covariates) that can support more valid inferences about student learning during the pandemic and in other scenarios in which the tested population changes over time. All three approaches lead to similar inferences about statewide student performance but can lead to very different inferences about student subgroups. Results show that controlling statistically for prepandemic demographic differences can reverse the conclusions about groups most affected by the pandemic and decisions about prioritizing resources.     

中国稀土政策演进逻辑与优化调整方向

本文旨在梳理中国稀土政策的演进历程,剖析政策演进动因及机制,并据此指出未来政策的优化调整方向。基于标志性政策,本文首先得出中国稀土政策可划分为4个演进阶段,分别为鼓励稀土出口和规范开采程序（1985—2004年）、实行出口数量管理和提升出口定价权（2005—2010年）、行业秩序治理和组织结构调整（2011—2014年）,以及产业供给侧结构性改革（2015年至今）。接着,文章运用PSR（压力-状态-响应）模型剖析了政策演进动因,运用系统动力学因果反馈图描绘了政策演进机制,探索得出中国稀土政策演进动因主要包括产业供给侧问题的倒逼、国家宏观政策调整的约束,以及全球发展形势的推动。总体而言,中国稀土政策的制定具有一定的滞后性、被动性和盲目性,其驱动机制主要表现为倒逼机制和约束机制。最后,本文构建了新时代中国稀土政策的PSR模型,指出在国内外双重压力下,稀土产业处于供需不匹配、下游应用水平不足、环境税费制度不完善、全球竞争地位受威胁等不利状态,未来应当形成问题与目标双向导向机制,从优化资源开发战略、激发企业研发热情、完善环境税费制度、分轻重稀土进行全球资源战略布局和产业治理4个方面进行响应政策的优化调整。     

苏州市固定资产投资与经济增长关系的实证研究

运用计量经济学方法对苏州市1981-2010年固定资产投资与经济增长的有关数据变量进行协整分析,建立了两者之间的误差修正模型,并对两者进行因果关系检验,揭示了苏州市固定资产投资与经济增长的动态均衡关系,提出了相关的建议。     

英语学习成败归因调查研究

文章以320名非英语专业大二学生为研究对象,对研究对象英语学习成败归因倾向及归因倾向与英语学习成绩之间的关系进行了研究。不同英语水平的学生在成功归因上的差异不明显,但对失败的归因在学习环境、运气好坏、语言天赋和任务难度等方面都有显著差异,学生对学习成败的不同归因倾向对其学习行为和学习成绩都有很大的影响。     

福建省居民消费与经济增长关系的协整研究

运用协整理论分析福建省改革开放以来国内生产总值和居民消费之间是否存在长期稳定的关系。实证表明福建省国内生产总值和居民消费之间存在长期稳定的关系，政府应该转变一直以来主要通过投资拉动经济的增长方式．注重通过启动消费，依靠消费和投资的共同增长来达到促进经济增长的目的。     

Closing a Virtuous Circle: Reciprocal Influences Between Theory and Practice in Studies of Reading Intervention

Abstract

The authors reflect on findings from three studies of different approaches to reading intervention (Al Otaiba et al., Denton et al., and Miller et al., all found in this issue). It is argued that the science of interventions for reading disorders is advanced and that these and other related studies provide a strong evidence base for guiding educational policy in this area. Reading interventions need to be based on theories of reading development and reading difficulty. Current causal models of reading development arguably have focused almost exclusively on the cognitive processes underlying reading development and how best to remediate deficiencies in such processes. Such models are typically silent on broader influences (motivational, attentional, and socio-cultural) on learning, however. It is concluded that future theories will need to be broadened in order to develop more effective interventions for children with a variety of reading and language learning difficulties.     

Energy,Markets and Their Failures

<正>1.Two Big Ideas:Markets and Their Failures1Historians eschew mono-causal theories of history.Still,energy has profoundly shaped human history,civilization and its institutions.In the rich tapestry of history,energy threads are found everywhere.Empires,