基于工业以太网的高炉监测系统

基于工业以太网的高炉监测系统,介绍了Modbus/TCP通信协议,以及由工控机、工业以太网、ADAM5000/TCP数据采集模块和传感变送器等组成的远程数据采集系统的构建,并通过编写VB6.0应用程序实时监测高炉生产工艺参数.     

基于VAR模型的中国消费价格指数分析

本文在建立中国消费价格指数、货币供给增长和固定资产投资增长的VAR模型的基础上,通过对脉冲响应函数及其方差分解的研究,一方面得出了消费价格指数对本身的冲击和对滞后的固定资产投资的冲击是敏感的,而对货币供给量的增长率的变化是不敏感的结论;另一方面得到了一个从粮食种植面积减少到消费价格指数上升的传递机制和货币供给量的增长率的一个不能被公众预测的突发性变化到消费价格指数同方向变化的传导机制。最后提出了相应的政策建议:在政策层面上仍应以稳健为主。加强对土地开发利用的管理,抑制耕地面积下降的势头,通过灵活运用隐蔽性较强的货币政策调节货币供给量。加强对政府投资特别是地方政府投资的管理,减少固定资产投资中的非理性因素。     

普通高校体育教学评价多元化模式分析

体育教学评价本身是体育教学中不可或缺的部分,同时也有利于对体育教学的质量进行相对科学、合理的评估。对于体育教学改革而言,完善教学理论研究,采取多元化评价模式已成为未来改革的重要方向,同时制订专业的教学评价指标体系,从模型构建的过程中探究其具体应用方法。     

The determinants of the intention to continue voluntary football refereeing

Competitive sports require a regulating body of referees to enforce the rules for the effective operation of the game. However, the number of referees is generally decreasing, leading to organisational problems at the amateur level. The purpose of this research is to identify the factors that determine the intention to continue voluntary refereeing in the context of football in Germany. Combining several concepts as predictors, including both the antecedents and the experience of volunteering, in this study, the authors extend the understanding about volunteers’ intentions to continue their activity and address the research gap regarding the analyses of specific volunteer groups such as referees. By means of an online questionnaire, the authors surveyed voluntary football referees in Germany (n = 4541). Regression analysis reveals the motive of self-orientation, respect shown by athletes, coaches, and spectators towards referees, compatibility of refereeing with one’s occupational and private life, perceived organisational support, and referees’ satisfaction to predict referees’ positive intention to continue with their activity. Simultaneously, experiences of offences during refereeing negatively influence this intention, and younger referees show higher intentions to continue their activity than do older referees. Because volunteer recruitment and retention are expensive, the findings of this study facilitate the improvement of effective retention strategies for the federations responsible for referees.     

Impact of age on host responses to diet-induced obesity:Development of joint damage and metabolic set points

Background:Osteoarthritis is one of the leading causes of pain and disability worldwide,and a large percentage of patients with osteoarthritis are individuals who are also obese.In recent years,a series of animal models have demonstrated that obesity-inducing diets can result in synovial joint damage(both with and without the superimposition of trauma),which may be related to changes in percentage of body fat and a series of low-level systemic inflammatory mediators.Of note,there is a disparity between whether the dietary challenges commence at weaning,representing a weanling onset,or at skeletal maturity,representing an adult onset of obesity.We wished to evaluate the effect ofthe dietary exposure time and the age at which animals are exposed to a high-fat and high-sucrose(HFS) diet to determine whether these factors may result in disparate outcomes,as there is evidence suggesting that these factors result in differential metabolic disturbances.Based on dietary exposure time,we hypothesized that rats fed an HFS diet for 14 weeks from weaning(HFS Weanling) would demonstrate an increase in knee joint damage scores,whereas rats exposed to the HFS diet for 4 weeks,starting at 12 weeks of age(HFS Adult) and rats exposed to a standard chow diet(Chow)would not display an increase in knee joint damage scores.Methods:Male Sprague-Dawley rats were fed either an HFS diet for 14 weeks from weaning(HFS Weanling) or an HFS diet for 4 weeks,starting at 12 weeks of age(HFS Adult).At sacrifice,joints were scored using the modified Mankin Criteria,and serum was analyzed for a defined subset of inflammatory markers(Interleukin-6,leptin,monocyte chemoattractant protein-1,and tumor necrosis factorα).Results:When the HFS Weanling and HFS Adult groups were compared,both groups had a similar percent of body fat,although the HFS Weanling group had a significantly greater body mass than the HFS Adult group.The HFS Weanling and HFS Adult animals had a significant increase in body mass and percentage of body fat when compared to the Chow group.Although knee joint damage scores were low in all 3 groups,we found,contrary to our hypothesis,that the HFS Adult group had statistically significant greater knee joint damage scores than the Chow and HFS Weanling groups.Furthermore,we observed that the HFS Weanling group did not have significant differences in knee joint damage scores relative to the Chow group.Conclusion:These findings indicate that the HFS Weanling animals were better able to cope with the dietary challenge of an HFS diet than the HFS Adult group.Interestingly,when assessing various serum proinflammatory markers,no significant differences were detected between the HTS Adult and HFS Weanling groups.Although details regarding the mechanisms underlying an increase in knee joint damage scores in the HFS Adult group remain to be elucidated,these findings indicate that dietary exposure time maybe less important than the age at which an HFS diet is introduced.Moreover,increases in serum proinflammatory mediators do not appear to be directly linked to knee joint damage scores in the HFS Weanling group animals but may be partially responsible for the observed knee joint damage in the adults over the very short time of exposure to the HFS diet.     

职业足球改革困境：一种非均衡国家治理模式的反思

运用文献资料法和逻辑分析法,从非均衡国家治理角度对我国职业足球改革面临的困境进行研究。通过梳理相关文献提出,当前国家治理模式具有非均衡性,存在各主体参与失范、治理权责分配失衡的问题,市场、社会、个人主体话语权较弱、参与性不足,形成了较强的政府依赖路径。对职业足球改革各主体之间的关系进行阐述,认为政府和足协是改革话语权的掌握者和资源的分配者,其他主体参与改革作用较小。指出,尚未明确职业足球的发展动机、足协组织能力与管理效能不足、各主体缺乏有效联系与合作是非均衡国家治理模式的具体表现;政府的非市场手段治理、市场失灵与第三部门失灵、个体意识与自我治理不足是其深层次原因。在此基础上提出相应的发展对策。     

基于隐马尔科夫模型的VLCC目的港预测

超大型油船(very large crude carrier,VLCC)目的港预测对海运原油流向预测以及货源地未来运力估计具有重要作用。针对VLCC的AIS目的港信息存在缺失、更新不及时、不准确等现象,提出一种基于隐马尔科夫模型的VLCC目的港预测方法。分析船舶AIS轨迹数据,得到油船历史停靠港口序列;根据VLCC轨迹提取习惯航路,以航路中的交叉点为依据设置观测线;利用船舶航行轨迹数据判断船舶是否经过观测线以及经过观测线的方向,对不同方向分别计算船舶在挂靠港间的转移概率矩阵和船舶挂靠港与观测线间的输出概率矩阵,建立VLCC目的港预测模型并进行预测。研究结果表明：在大多数情况下VLCC目的港预测的准确率可以达到70%以上;航线越固定、运行越规律的船舶,预测准确率越高;船舶越靠近目的港,预测越准确;重载状态下的船舶目的港预测更准确。     

上海国际航运中心建设支持政策的量化评价

为增强上海国际航运中心建设支持政策的有效性,基于2009—2018年间国家及地方政府层面颁布的19个涉及上海国际航运中心建设的政策文本,应用文本挖掘方式提取评价指标,构建PMC指数模型对政策进行量化评价。分别选取3项针对性政策和3项辅助性政策作为评价对象进行实证分析,结果表明:针对性政策的PMC指数总得分高于辅助性政策的PMC指数总得分,且随着上海国际航运中心建设的不断推进,其引导作用不断加强;辅助性政策虽然只考虑到上海国际航运中心的部分建设需求,但在保障激励等方面给予了高度重视。     

基于熵权-TOPSIS模型的大风浪条件下引航员登船水域选址

为保障大风浪条件下引航员登船安全、周边船和被引船的安全以及港口的安全高效运营,选取合理的引航员登船水域至关重要。综合考虑熵权法和TOPSIS法的优点,基于熵权-TOPSIS模型对大风浪条件下引航员登船水域进行优选研究。以大风浪条件下广州港引航员登船水域选址为例,运用该模型对3个备选方案进行评价,求得方案2的相对贴近度最大。该方案所述的引航员登船水域为大风浪条件下最优登船水域,且与实际选址一致。经实例验证,该模型较为可靠,实用性强。     

三自由度并联式波浪补偿平台建模与仿真

鉴于船舶在波浪中的六自由度运动中,其升沉、横摇和纵摇运动对船舶工作平台上的设备影响较大,设计一种三自由度并联式波浪补偿平台来减少这种影响。通过对平台进行运动学分析,得到平台的运动学模型。利用ADAMS和Simulink建立带有控制系统时间延迟参数的虚拟样机模型,依据平台的运动学模型设计对船舶运动进行补偿的控制策略,并利用虚拟样机进行仿真,验证平台机构和相应控制策略对船舶运动的补偿效果。结果表明:当控制系统的时间延迟参数取值为1 ms时,平台对船舶升沉、横摇和纵摇运动的补偿效果分别为88.81%、95.44%和91.97%;当控制系统的时间延迟参数取值为0.1 ms时,平台对船舶升沉、横摇和纵摇运动的补偿效果分别为96.04%、99.07%和97.65%。由此可见:平台对误差有一定的包容性;可利用具有船舶运动预测功能的算法为平台提供超前的船舶运动数据或者提高控制系统的实时性来提高补偿效果。