Accounting for Model Uncertainty in the Prediction of University Graduation Rates

Empirical analysis requires researchers to choose which variables to use as controls in their models. Theory should dictate this choice, yet often in social science there are several theories that may suggest the inclusion or exclusion of certain variables as controls. The result of this is that researchers may use different variables in their models and come to disparate conclusions with respect to predicted effects and their statistical significance. In such cases one is uncertain of which particular set of regressors forms the model that represents the data. The approach used below accounts for uncertainty in variable selection by using Bayesian model averaging (BMA). Accounting for uncertainty, we demonstrate that BMA provides better out-of-sample prediction for university graduation rates than results based on alternative variable selection methods.     

Longitudinal analyses of educational outcomes for youth transitioning out of care in the US: trends and influential factors

ABSTRACT

This paper draws on data collected from two of the most extensive longitudinal studies of care leavers in the US. The Midwest Study (2003–2011) included 732 youths in foster care in three Midwestern states, and the CalYOUTH Study (2012–present) includes 727 youths in California foster care. The paper has three objectives: (1) describe trends in secondary and postsecondary educational attainment at different ages; (2) summarise findings on predictors of educational attainment; and (3) summarise findings on the impact of extended foster care (EFC) on educational attainment. Results from these two studies show that by age 21, 77–85% of care leavers finish a secondary credential and 31–52% enrol in college. By age 25, about 8% have earned a college degree. Results from multivariate analyses find that youths’ educational background and parental status were consistently associated with later educational attainment. Specific aspects of social support also influenced college outcomes. Life demands after enrolling in college (e.g. employment, parenthood) played a more influential role in college degree attainment than did aspects of youths’ background. Characteristics of colleges also predicted youths’ odds of degree completion. Finally, existing evidence suggests that EFC promotes secondary credential completion and college entry, but not college persistence or degree completion.     

意境说的道禅哲学渊源

中国古典美学中的意境说由情景交隔、虚实相生、动静相成、意在言外等四种美学范畴构成。其文化内涵源自道禅哲学中的“道德玄同，天人合一”，“有无相生”、“完全无妙有”、“无动而无不动”、“无言而无不言”、“不落言筌，不涉理路”等哲学理念。     

现代商业银行利率风险管理问题研究

利率风险是商业银行的基本风险之一，利率风险的存在将对商业银行的利润和市场价值等产生综合的影响。商业银行利率风险的产生主要来自收益风险和价值风险两个方面，只有科学地测量出利率风险。才能利用现代管理策略和手段将风险保持在一个合理的或可控的水平，从而实现利率风险管理的目标——利润最大化。     

一类无界的不相容工件族分批排序加权总完工时间问题

考虑极小化加权总完工时间的一类无界的不相容工件族分批排序问题,给出了最优排序的性质和算法,并加以证明．对工件有k个到达时间的情形,给出了一个复杂性为D（2^k-1nlogn）的启发式算法．     

工程聚合物材料的缺口效应研究

探讨了聚合物材料的缺口效应,并以聚丙烯腈-丁二烯-苯乙烯(ABS)材料为例,进行了拉伸速率跨越3个数量级的拉伸实验研究,考查并分析了应变率与几何参数对材料切口强度的综合影响.     

Educational Attainment as Process: Using Hierarchical Discrete-Time Event History Analysis to Model Rate of Progress

Variables that address student enrollment patterns (e.g., persistence, enrollment inconsistency, completed credit hours, course credit load, course completion rate, procrastination) constitute a longstanding fixture of analytical strategies in educational research, particularly research that focuses on explaining variation in academic outcomes. However, nearly all measures of enrollment patterns are handicapped by untested assumptions about a more fundamental measure, namely students’ rate of progress. In this paper, I first explain how a variety of widely used measures of enrollment patterns are inextricably linked to students’ rate of progress. I then describe a method of modeling mathematically students’ rate of progress that employs hierarchical (multilevel) discrete-time event history analysis of repeated events. I conclude with an empirical example of the application of this method in which I test several hypotheses concerning students’ rate of progress through the remedial math sequence toward the outcome of college-level math competency. In addition to the utility of the method that is proposed here, the issues discussed in this paper have important practical implications for institutional research, particularly with respect to the use of the various measures of enrollment patterns to explain variation in students’ attainment.

吕碧城诗词是中西合璧的艺术

隐逸派是20世纪初意大利出现的一个现代派诗歌流派,当时,吕碧城在意大利漫游很久,受这种艺术流派的影响,她的诗词具有浓郁的隐逸派诗歌的艺术特色。其诗词同时继承了中华民族诗歌的传统艺术,因而深受中外文人学士的赞誉。     

军队体育在构建和谐军营中的作用

现代体育蕴含着深刻的和谐理念与和谐精神,军队体育在提升战斗力的同时也有助于构建和谐军营。在部队中大力开展体育运动和体能训练,有利于促进官兵的身心和谐,维护军营的人际和睦、公平竞争和安全稳定,推动部队的法规建设和正规化建设。     

高职新生英语学习焦虑的成因及对策

克拉中的感情屏障假说深刻地反映了情感因素对学习者的直接影响性.高职新生在学习英语时普遍出现焦虑,分析其成因有心理、学法、教法等方面.为此,在高职新生英语教学中应从心理疏导着手,让他们树立自信心和成就感,并加强学法指导,从而帮助他们克服英语学习焦虑,以有效地完成学业.