A Tutorial in Bayesian Potential Outcomes Mediation Analysis

Statistical mediation analysis is used to investigate intermediate variables in the relation between independent and dependent variables. Causal interpretation of mediation analyses is challenging because randomization of subjects to levels of the independent variable does not rule out the possibility of unmeasured confounders of the mediator to outcome relation. Furthermore, commonly used frequentist methods for mediation analysis compute the probability of the data given the null hypothesis, which is not the probability of a hypothesis given the data as in Bayesian analysis. Under certain assumptions, applying the potential outcomes framework to mediation analysis allows for the computation of causal effects, and statistical mediation in the Bayesian framework gives indirect effects probabilistic interpretations. This tutorial combines causal inference and Bayesian methods for mediation analysis so the indirect and direct effects have both causal and probabilistic interpretations. Steps in Bayesian causal mediation analysis are shown in the application to an empirical example.     

毛泽东与党的调解制度

调解是一种重要的纠纷解决机制,我国素有调解的传统。毛泽东高度重视调解,在改造传统调解制度的基础上形成和发展了现代调解制度。今天调解依然具有积极的现实意义。     

非诉讼纠纷解决机制在青少年案件中的介入

在解决涉及青少年案件时，由于主体的特殊性，传统的诉讼模式日益显露出一些弊端，而在现代社会中正在兴起的非诉讼纠纷解决机制正好弥补了诉讼制度的缺陷，它在青少年案件中的介入对于青少年的保护以及实现诉讼的多重的社会功能都发挥了重要的作用。     

战略人力资源管理的情景观研究

系统总结了战略人力资源管理的情景观,分析人力资源管理与组织情景的关系,阐述了如何在组织情境中来理解人力资源管理的生成机制和运行机制.同时论述了如何利用资源依附理论、新制度理论和种群生态理论作为基础理论来解释战略人力资源管理的情景观.最后利用情景观为我国的战略人力资源管理研究提出了意见和建议.     

公示语及其英译的语境分析

公示语是通过文字或与文字相关的图文和影像等多种形式发布于公共场所的＂指示语＂、＂提示语＂、＂警示语＂＂、标志语＂＂、标识语＂等应用文体,正日益成为新的通用流行语汇,相应的英译应借助具体的题旨情境具体分析其语言语境、情境语境和文化语境,或传递其语义信息,或挖掘其文化内涵,或阐释其语用功能,或实现其交际意图。     

农地流转对农业碳排放的影响及空间特性

【目的】农业碳排放问题对于碳达峰碳中和目标实现具有重要意义,农地流转是重大农业变革,对农业碳排放具有显著作用,然而现有研究未深入探索农地流转对农业碳排放的影响,影响了农业碳减排工作的进一步推进。【方法】本文在理论探讨基础上结合2005—2020年中国30个省份面板数据,综合利用双固定效应回归模型、工具变量模型、中介效应模型、空间计量模型,在严格检验基础上实证分析了农地流转对农业碳排放的影响效应、中介路径及其空间特性。【结果】①农地流转对农业碳排放产生显著正向影响,即农地流转面积扩大会促进农业碳排放增加;②农业经营规模在农地流转促进农业碳排放增加过程中发挥部分中介效应,农地流转能通过提升农业经营规模进而增加农业碳排放;③考虑空间效应时,农地流转对本地区农业碳排放产生显著正向影响,对邻近地区农业碳排放产生显著负向影响,农业经营规模在农地流转对本地区农业碳排放的影响过程中发挥部分中介效应。【结论】农地流转对农业碳排放存在显著影响,农地流转推进过程应重视农业碳排放问题。     

认知语境与话语理解

话语理解是一种特殊的认知活动，理解话语需借助语境。语境是认知性质的，是变项。要获得足够的语境效果才能正确理解话语。Sperber ＆ Wilson的关联理论从不同的角度解释了语境对话语理解的影响。听话人对说话人所说话语的理解程度取决于听话人的认知能力。     

大数据背景下的情报分析

大数据时代的到来,将数据和信息分析提升到前所未有的高度。探讨了大数据背景下情报分析面临的新环境：数据流分析倍受关注、信息粒度更为细小、情报问题动态复杂、分析技术丰富多样;进一步提出情报分析的发展趋势：注重情境研究,开展协同分析,分析实时数据;最后指出在新环境下情报分析需要注意的两个问题：大数据的陷阱和待构建的指标。     

Navigating privacy tensions when responding to online aggression at postsecondary institutions

Postsecondary institutions have a legal responsibility to ensure that students have access to a safe learning environment. While institutions adopt policies and hire administrators to protect students from harm, many are underprepared to support students when these harmful incidents happen online. This is of increased concern now that online aggression is pervasive across universities worldwide. While faculty, administrators and students agree that online aggression is a significant issue and that institutions ought to provide prevention and response services, there is concern that these efforts might violate privacy norms. We used the theory of privacy as contextual integrity (CI) to explore the tensions that postsecondary students and staff perceive regarding student privacy when responding to incidents of online aggression. To do so, we conducted focus groups with undergraduate students and student affairs administrators from a Historically Black College and University (HBCU) in the Mid-Atlantic USA. Our analysis surfaced three considerations that inform students' and staff's decision to report an incident of online aggression: their closeness to the person making the post, their perception of the online post content as a real threat and their knowledge of an authority figure who could help resolve the situation. We used CI theory to explain how these considerations can inform institutional policy, practice and future research.

Practitioner notes

What is already known about this topic

• Online aggression is a pervasive issue at postsecondary institutions worldwide that can contribute to psychological, academic and developmental issues.
• Postsecondary students and staff are unsure of how to respond to incidents of online aggression.
• There is a gap in policies and procedures for responding to online aggression at postsecondary institutions.

What this paper adds

• A novel use of Nissenbaum's (2010) theory of contextual integrity to understand students' and staff's perceptions of privacy.
• Students' and staff's decisions to intervene or report an online aggression incident are determined by their relationship to the perpetrator, the severity of the social media post and their knowledge of who to tell on campus.
• Students and staff are reluctant to inform the police out of fear of violence against the perpetrator.

Implications for practice and/or policy

• Raise awareness about responding to online aggression incidents.
• Implement online bystander intervention training programs to increase awareness and self-efficacy to intervene in unclear situations.
• Develop clear policies regarding online aggression, as well as a trustworthy procedure for how to respond.

     

数字金融发展对区域创新的影响路径：基于“双循环”视阈

在“双循环”经济发展新格局下，为更好地引导金融避虚向实、服务实体经济创新投入，从国内国际双循环视角分析数字金融对区域创新的影响路径。利用2011－2019年我国31个省份平衡面板数据，采用回归模型和中介效应模型进行实证分析，并引入区域金融监管和产业结构升级因素进行异质性分析。结果显示：数字金融及其分指数都能正向促进区域创新，其中使用深度促进程度最大、数字化程度次之、覆盖广度最小；数字金融通过“双循环”促进区域创新，在内循环方面通过促进居民消费和提高信贷水平产生促进效应，在外循环方面通过提高对外直接投资水平、外商直接投资水平和促进国际贸易产生促进效应；在高金融监管强度和高第二产业占比的情况下，数字金融的促进效应更强。最后从加快传统金融业数字化转型、形成供需协同的区域创新水平发展动力、科技驱动型金融监管创新和数字金融与实体经济结合四方面提出对策建议。