中国人口与可持续发展

随着中国人口转变进入新阶段,即劳动年龄人口停止增长、人口抚养比停止下降,过去30余年推动中国经济高速增长的人口红利即将消失,亟待创造必要的制度条件来获得以全要素生产率为主要驱动力的、更加可持续的经济增长源泉。转变经济发展方式,既是形成新型人口、资源、环境协调关系的必要条件,也是获得可持续经济增长源泉的关键。本文探讨了提高全要素生产率在转变经济发展方式中的重要作用,提出改善这一生产率来源的政策建议。同时,还针对中国"未富先老"的特点,从人力资本培养、应对老龄化和调整生育政策等角度提出了政策建议。     

INDUSTRY PROTECTION AND ADJUSTMENT: THE AUSTRALIAN EXPERIENCE

Australian industrial policy is primarily concerned with protecting the manufacturing sector by the use of tariffs and quotas. Over the last decade and a half successive governments have announced an intention to move towards lower tariffs. The result has been lower tariffs on average, but the introduction ofimport quotas in response to the 1974–75 recession has resulted in large increases in protection for the textile, clothing, footwear and motor vehicle industries. These sectors are covered by Industry Plans. There is a stated intention to liberalize trade, but for a decade the market share of imports has been fixed. On the basis of past experience, there is a low probability that significant trade liberalization will occur. Australian industrial policy has failed to create a more efficient manufacturing sector. It is reactive and has slowed the rate of structural change. It is a good example of the way in which initiatives to restrict trade flows by ‘temporary’ quotas — intended to provide a breathing space so an industry can reorganise and compete more effectively against imports — can result in import quotas becoming a near permanent feature of the economic environment. The Australian economy has also been subject to largeexchange rate appreciations. Our experience is that unusual appreciations bring to the forefront of structural change those industries which have already set out upon a path of long run decline. Once the appreciations have passed, these troubled industries are not placed back in their original position relative to imports.     

HIGH TECHNOLOGY POLICY AND THE SILICON VALLEY MODEL: AN AUSTRALIAN PERSPECTIVE

Australia seeks to emerge from the depths of recession and to break free from the syndrome of giving ever-increasing protection to a decaying manufacturing sector, by encouraging high technology industry. Silicon Valley, the home of much of the world's semiconductor industry, is often seen as the appropriate model for the development of such industry. For those used to dealing with the siting and encouragement of conventional industry, it can seem that high technology industry, with no heavy raw material input or bulky product output and requiring no large labour pool or local market, in fact has no special requirements at all. Others look to the Silicon Valley model and plan science or technology parks to reproduce the factors they believe responsible for that phenomenon. For example, great emphasis is generally placed on proximity to universities, apparently in ignorance of the very minor role universities played in the growth of the semiconductor industry, and of the great practical divide between science and technology. Vital factors, such as the ready information flow achieved by high mobility of those in high technology industry, are ignored. The Australian situation is complicated further by competition among the States to attract high technology industry, a competition that tends to emasculate national policy. Yet this situation is really just a local representation of what is happening internationally among countries and among regions within those countries. This desperation to leap blindly into high technology, whatever it is and whatever the cost, by following a model that is scarcely understood, is unlikely to produce the huge rewards so many policy makers anticipate are so readily available.     

Revolution in Miniature. The History and Impact of Semiconductor Electronics Second Edition by Ernest Braun and Stuart Macdonald (Cambridge University Press,Cambridge, 1982) pp. viii + 247, $A15.50 (pb), ISBN: 0-521-24701-2 (hb), 0-521-28903-3 (pb)

This paper provides a review of Israel's science and technology policy and traces the growth and development of technology intensive industry in that country. Such policy has generally been neutral with regard to industry, technological field or class of product; concentrates on industrial R &; D directly performed in industrial firms; and is an integral part of overall national industrial policy — being centred in the Ministry of Industry and Commerce. Drawing upon case studies and other statistical evidence, the paper argues that such policy has been partly responsible for Israel's success in building up an indigenous, export-oriented, high technology sector.     

我国汽车产业技术发展中的政府作用研究

本文从技术链的视角,基于演化理论和均衡理论阐释了政府在我国汽车产业技术发展中的作用,认为当前我国汽车产业的技术发展是从整车架构技术到核心元件技术再到前沿研究开发的技术积累过程,政府在不同的技术环节具有相异的作用形式和内容,依次表现为前沿研究开发的推动者、核心元件技术的支持者和整车架构技术的引导者,政策设计应从基于均衡理论的弥补"市场失灵"转向基于演化理论的弥补"系统失灵",呈现出从专注于直接投资向着力于系统完善的演变。     

基于结构方程模型的政府行为与企业创新关系研究

基于结构方程的政府行为与企业创新关系模型可以反映政府行为的相关因素对于企业创新效益的影响程度。通过制作问卷调查,确定出政府的政策支持、环境支持、经费支持和企业创新效益这四个潜在变量以及相关的观测变量,利用结构方程模型研究潜变量之间的影响关系。研究表明,政策支持通过环境支持和经费支持对企业创新效益产生间接影响。     

公共危机管理中政策制定的原则和措施研究

政策制定是公共危机管理中的一个强有力的工具,如何有效地制定危机政策直接关系到这个工具能否发挥效力,所以,明确政策制定原则,同时提出一些有效的政策制定措施就显得尤为重要。文章综合分析了政策制定过程中应该坚持公民参与力度增强,快速决策并敢于承担风险,以及危机政策的产出价值优先的原则。在具体政策制定过程中,应明确政府职能和强化政府责任,及时接收危机信号和收集危机信息,从而迅速确认问题,同时,政府引导公民参与危机政策制定,最后,需要强有力的政策实施与持续改进的评估。     

科技政策咨询技术路线探讨——以高新技术企业认定咨询为例

信息咨询是提供问题解决方法还是帮助客户实施,一直是信息咨询业探讨的热点问题.本文以高新技术企业认定咨询为例,对辅导模式的科技政策咨询与主导模式的科技政策咨询,进行效率、效益、效果三个方面的分析比较,提出要根据咨询的工作内容、客户能力、咨询要求等多方面因素,选择具体的咨询技术路线,或者混合使用两种模式的咨询技术路线.     

农村生活和散养畜禽污水污染控制政策手段分析

在农业面源污染已经逐步受到重视的情形下,主要归纳分析农村生活和散养畜禽污水污染控制具体政策手段,发现其面临行政监管中多头管理和管理缺位并存、经济手段单一、法律手段缺失、技术支撑薄弱和农村人口环保意思薄弱等问题,提出建设农村环保机构、丰富经济政策手段、加强农村环境保护法律建设以及强化技术手段和宣教手段等建议.     

科技社团承接政府职能转移的相关政策研究——以杭州市为例

对科技社团承接政府职能相关政策进行调研,并通过问卷调查的方式对杭州市科技社团承接政府职能情况进行数据搜集和分析,同时,对国内部分省市的科技社团承接政府职能相关情况进行研究,在此基础上得出科技社团承接政府职能转移的相关政策建议。