Fitting Unstructured Finite Mixture Models in Longitudinal Design: A Recommendation for Model Selection and Estimation of the Number of Classes

In longitudinal design, investigating interindividual differences of intraindividual changes enables researchers to better understand the potential variety of development and growth. Although latent growth curve mixture models have been widely used, unstructured finite mixture models (uFMMs) are also useful as a preliminary tool and are expected to be more robust in identifying classes under the influence of possible model misspecifications, which are very common in actual practice. In this study, large-scale simulations were performed in which various normal uFMMs and nonnormal uFMMs were fit to evaluate their utility and the performance of each model selection procedure for estimating the number of classes in longitudinal designs. Results show that normal uFMMs assuming invariance of variance–covariance structures among classes perform better on average. Among model selection procedures, the Calinski–Harabasz statistic, which has a nonparametric nature, performed better on average than information criteria, including the Bayesian information criterion.     

中国区域创新差异的时空格局演变——基于空间马尔可夫链分析

以专利授权总量为主要指标,基于省域空间单元,采用变异系数、空间马尔可夫链和空间自相关等方法,从时间、空间和区域视角探索1985-2013年间我国区域创新差异的时空动态演化过程与特征。研究发现：（1）我国区域创新差异整体上呈现继续扩大的态势,并呈现出高水平和低水平两大空间趋同俱乐部;（2）区域创新类型的空间转移与创新水平的差距关系密切,区域创新水平的差距越小,发生转移的概率越大;反之亦然。（3）邻域的创新水平明显影响区域创新差异的演变,但这种作用存在不对称性。最后,在此基础上提出区域创新发展的政策建议。     

浅析中国武术走出国门之路

北京奥运会已经完美谢幕,我们期盼已久的武术只是作为表演项目,未能跻身于奥运大家庭。文章通过武术与跆拳道、柔道这些奥运项目的对比,运用文献资料研究方法和数据分析法对武术及其相关概念进行分析。认为:武术与功夫概念存在混用现象,武术作为一种体育文化,需要重新界定武术的本质特征;政府等有关部门应从战略高度对外推广武术;国内武术界应放长眼光,摒弃门派观念弊端,改变传统的武术推广模式,借鉴成功经验,让中国武术进入奥运,走出国门。     

A method of providing accurate velocity feedback of performance on an instrumented kayak ergometer

On a kayak ergometer, an accurate simulation of the athlete-paddle-kayak system kinematics is essential for analysing the relationship between technique and performance. The purpose of this study was to establish a strong relationship between performances on flatwater and performances on an ergometer by means of propulsive force measurement and drag models. Two trials were performed by 12 kayakers in which they were first timed over 250 m of flatwater kayaking (the reference test) and were then asked to perform a trial of the same duration on the ergometer with the same perceived physical exertion. Three techniques for measuring propulsive force and three drag models generated nine combinations, which were all evaluated for their ability to estimate kayak velocity. For each combination, the distance covered by the athlete on the ergometer was simulated. A kayakers’ ergometer ranking was based on the average velocity in the ergometer trial. Both distance and ranking were compared to the on-water results. The simulation with the best combination of force measurement and drag model gave an accurate estimate of distance (253 ± 10.5 vs. 250 m) and ranking compared to the reference test.     

‘The life of crime does not pay; stop and think!’: the process of co-constructing a prototype pedagogical model of sport for working with youth from socially vulnerable backgrounds

Purpose: This study discusses the process of co-constructing a prototype pedagogical model for working with youth from socially vulnerable backgrounds.

Participants and settings: This six-month activist research project was conducted in a soccer program in a socially vulnerable area of Brazil in 2013. The study included 17 youths, 4 coaches, a pedagogic coordinator and a social worker. An expert in student-centered pedagogy and inquiry-based activism assisted as a debriefer helping in the progressive data analysis and the planning of the work sessions.

Data collection/analysis: Multiple sources of data were collected, including 38 field journal/observation and audio records of: 18 youth work sessions, 16 coaches’ work sessions, 3 combined coaches and youth work sessions, and 37 meetings between the researcher and the expert.

Findings: The process of co-construction of this prototype pedagogical model was divided into three phases. The first phase involved the youth and coaches identifying barriers to sport opportunities in their community. In the second phase, the youth, coaches and researchers imagined alternative possibilities to the barriers identified. In the final phase, we worked collaboratively to create realistic opportunities for the youth to begin to negotiate some of the barriers they identified. In this phase, the coaches and youth designed an action plan to implement (involving a Leadership Program) aimed at addressing the youths’ needs in the sport program. Five critical elements of a prototype pedagogical model were co-created through the first two processes and four learning aspirations emerged in the last phase of the project.

Implications: We suggest an activist approach of co-creating a pedagogical model of sport for working with youth from socially vulnerable backgrounds is beneficial. That is, creating opportunities for youth to learn to name, critique and negotiate barriers to their engagement in sport in order to create empowering possibilities.     

共轨式喷油系统数学模型

针对高压共轨喷油系统所特有的工作过程和部件结构 ,建立了系统各部件综合的数学模型 ,并采用有限容积法对方程进行了离散 ,对系统的压力特性、电磁特性和控制参数等进行了仿真 ,为系统的参数设计、标定提供了依据。     

试析美国研究型大学基层学术组织模式

美国研究型大学基层学术组织是以学科为基础的独立的、自主的学术组织。其组织规模主要根据教学科研任务的需要来决定。其内部管理以教授统治为主,采取的是少数服从多数的决策机制。总结和归纳美国研究型大学基层学术组织的现状与改革动向,对于探讨我国研究型大学未来的改革重点与方向具有重要的借鉴意义。     

对我国中小学体育教学模式的理论思考

着重对我国中小学体育教学模式进行理论探讨。提出了多视角、多样化、全方位的体育教学模式新格局,认为提高我国中小学体育教学整体水平的关键在于更新教育观念,建立一定的学说,确定“发展”的体育教学模式。     

From Retrieval Status Values to Probabilities of Relevance for Advanced IR Applications

Information Retrieval systems typically sort the result with respect to document retrieval status values (RSV). According to the Probability Ranking Principle, this ranking ensures optimum retrieval quality if the RSVs are monotonously increasing with the probabilities of relevance (as e.g. for probabilistic IR models). However, advanced applications like filtering or distributed retrieval require estimates of the actual probability of relevance. The relationship between the RSV of a document and its probability of relevance can be described by a normalisation function which maps the retrieval status value onto the probability of relevance (mapping functions). In this paper, we explore the use of linear and logistic mapping functions for different retrieval methods. In a series of upper-bound experiments, we compare the approximation quality of the different mapping functions. We also investigate the effect on the resulting retrieval quality in distributed retrieval (only merging, without resource selection). These experiments show that good estimates of the actual probability of relevance can be achieved, and that the logistic model outperforms the linear one. Retrieval quality for distributed retrieval is only slightly improved by using the logistic function.