石油期货最优套期保值比率及套期保值绩效的实证研究

本文利用普通最小二乘法(OLS)、双变量向量自回归(B-VAR)、误差修正(ECM)和广义自回归条件异方差结合误差修正(ECM-GARCH)4个模型和套期保值绩效的衡量指标,对原油期货的套期保值比率和绩效进行实证研究。ECM-GARCH模型确定的最优套期保值比率是动态的,与前三个模型确定的常数套期保值比率有本质的不同。实证表明,ECM-GARCH模型在套期保值效果上有着优异的表现。     

动量策略、动量崩溃及其风险管理——基于中国商品期货市场的实证研究

旨在研究中国商品期货市场动量策略的有效性,并且在判断动量崩溃的存在与动因之后提出能够管理动量崩溃风险的有效方法。在考虑交易费用的情况下,构建出的商品期货动量策略能够持续性获得显著的风险调整收益,进一步实证发现中国商品期货市场存在动量崩溃现象,其原因在于输家组合具有类期权性质从而使得时变β对市场组合波动更加敏感,进而主导了动量组合发生崩溃。为了进行动量崩溃的风险管理,提出构建基于目标条件停时的动态权重动量策略以管理动量崩溃风险,结果显示这一方法有效地规避了动量崩溃带来的极端风险,同时获得更高的动量收益和夏普比例。     

Bigger than ourselves: the Southgate narrative and the search for a sense of common purpose

Abstract

The paper examines two ‘turns’ in English national sporting culture, ‘Beckhamisation’ and ‘Southgatism’, and their contribution to an ‘imagined community’ through processes of ‘banal nationalism’. It examines the critiques of various academic and media commentators to demonstrate the link between the trappings of sport (in this case football), and people’s understanding of ‘us’ and ‘them’. Music/songs, flags, language, multi-cultural representation, team ethos and espoused values, are not just signifiers, but have a pivotal part to play in representing, repressing and resisting particular forms of Englishness. The focus here is on those national sporting occasions that all too often have been associated with virulent forms of nationalism. We conclude that Southgatism holds out more hope for a progressive sporting patriotism than did its Beckhamite predecessor, but that this has yet to be tested in the febrile cauldron (the ‘hostile environment’ for immigrants and Brexit) currently forging English national identity.     

试论棉花的期货交易

棉花的产销矛盾日益突出 ,表现在生产连年丰收 ,消费却逐年减少。而流通又是连接产销的桥梁与纽带 ,所以 ,棉花流通体制改革势在必行。棉花进行期货交易 ,既符合国际惯例 ,又是通过市场来配置资源的一种有效手段     

Learning,the Future,and Complexity. An Essay on the Emergence of Futures Literacy

Futures Literacy is the capacity to design and implement processes that make use of anticipation, generally with the purpose of trying to understand and act in a complex emergent context. This article examines the potential of Futures Literacy to contribute to the realisation of a better balance between learning that is shaped by the supposition that what needs to be learned is knowable in advance, what I will label ‘push’ education, and ‘pull’ learning, that starts from the discovery of not knowing something, initiating the search for hypotheses, experiments, and evidence that eventually lead to understanding. Insufficient Futures Literacy impedes the expansion our anticipatory activities beyond preparation and planning, with the result that at both the individual and institutional levels it is difficult to find the motivation and capability to undertake and organise learning that goes beyond ‘push’ education, or what people ‘need’ to know now in order to get: a ‘good job’, be ‘good citizens’, etc., in the future. As a result humanity may be less able to embrace complexity or pursue a diversification approach to resilience.     

国内外豆类期货价格传导实证研究——基于分布滞后回归模型

用分布滞后回归模型分别研究大豆、豆粕和豆油在国内期货市场和芝加哥期货市场间的传导。从豆类各品种在大连期货交易所和芝加哥期货市场之间的传导特点可以看出,豆类期货价格在国内外的传导具有非对称性。总体来说我国豆类期货价格对芝加哥期货市场的影响力要大于芝加哥期货市场对我国期货市场的影响力,特别显著的是我国大连大豆和豆粕期货都是芝加哥大豆和豆粕期货的格兰杰原因,而反之不成立。虽然大连豆油期货和芝加哥豆油期货价格间的传导互为因果,但是从分布滞后模型的回归结果可以看出,我国大连豆油期货对芝加哥豆油期货价格的影响力要大于芝加哥豆油期货对大连豆油期货的影响力。     

对我国期货法律制度问题的思考

期货法律制度是指调整期货交易和管理过程中发生的社会关系的法律规范及相关制度的总称。它集中体现在立法机关制定的期货法中。本文通过对期货基本属性之论述,拟对我国期货法的立法体例与调整范围,我国期货投资者资格进行理论探讨的基础上,提出构建我国相关期货法律制度的立法建议和设想。     

Our Language: (Re)Imagining Communities in Ukrainian Language Classrooms

Drawing upon video recordings from two fifth-grade Ukrainian classrooms and interviews with children four years later, this paper examines these classrooms as sites for socializing learners into an imagined community of Ukrainian speakers, the extent to which children took up identities as members of this community, and the potential effect of this identification on willingness to learn and use Ukrainian. Microanalysis of classroom interaction illustrates how teachers drew upon prevailing discourses of language and nation in ways that both presupposed and sought to create children’s membership in an imagined national community whose core practices included affiliation with Ukrainian as “our language.” However, interview data reveal that while children readily aligned with this imagined community and voiced its language ideologies, they positioned themselves as peripheral members or alternatively reimagined an alternative, multilingual Ukrainian community.     

Avoiding to fit a square peg into a round hole: a policy framework for operationalising open distance education in dual-mode universities

Abstract

Although education policies in many African countries refer to the need for distance education to widen participation in universities, they have not articulated guidelines on how they plan to develop systems and structures that will support it. The purpose of this study was to develop a policy framework specific for distance education provision in conventional universities. A two-step approach was utilised to guide the process of the development of the framework. The first step was to analyse national education policies, which provide the educational vision of the country. The second step was to analyse distance education policy frameworks in order to provide specific criteria that need to be met when providing distance education. Futures research methodology was employed to look at policy interventions with the aim of identifying probable development in education that may influence distance education practices within the conventional university context.