基于改进SVM的新疆北部地区积雪面积反演研究——以天山山区中段为例

积雪面积是融雪径流模型中变量数据输入之一,准确的获取雪盖范围是进行流域尺度融雪水文过程研究的关键,在水资源管理及洪水预报中具有重要意义.本文以天山山区中段为例,利用MODIS数据,提出了结合混合光谱分解的积雪分量及灰度共生矩阵提取的纹理特征的SVM分类方法,对研究区积雪面积信息提取进行了研究.结果表明:通过利用混合光谱分解的积雪分量作为SVM的特征输入,总体分类精度比传统SVM分类结果有了一些提高.同时考虑结合基于灰度共生矩阵提取的纹理特征用于分类中,总体精度比传统SVM方法提高了1.081％,制图精度达到了99.01％.本文提出的分类方法能够适应特征组合之间的非线性关系,从而能提供更多的区域地物空间分布信息,能够调整无样本地表类型地区的积雪面积反演,对今后的融雪水文过程研究有重要意义.     

Endogenous technical advance and the stochastic trend in output: A neoclassical approach

In the recent endogenous growth literature, the trend in output is stochastic, while investment in scientific knowledge is treated as analogous to a capital stock. This paper models both research and development (R&D) and disembodied technical advance using neo-classical equations, which specify the equilibrium stocks as a function of prices and output. The elasticity of R&D in the production function, estimated using factor shares, is time-varying and increasing. Returns to scale are increasing in all factors. The most important aspect of the model is that the equilibrium rate of technical advance is not cyclically invariant, but co-moves with output at business cycle frequencies. This allows the production function to behave as a stochastic trend. Growth accounting demonstrates that long-term variations in the rate of productivity growth have been associated mainly with low-frequency fluctuations in the rate of disembodied technical advance, with secondary effects from the stocks of R&D and physical capital. During the high productivity period 1948–1972, technical advance contributed 1.48 percentage points per year to output, with 0.98 accounted for by R&D. The productivity slowdown of the mid-1970s was accounted by a gradual decline in the effect of R&D, and a more abrupt collapse in disembodied technology. The subsequent productivity revival was associated with two accelerations in disembodied technical advance, the first beginning in the early 1980s, and the second in the mid-1990s. The production function is simulated in a small econometric model. Model simulations find that exogenous shocks to the inflation rate generate significant variations in growth by inducing fluctuations in disembodied technology.     

Antioxidant and lipid lowering activities of Indian black tea

Indian black tea; CTC leaf and dust, produced by Tata Tea Limited, Kolkata, (India) was studiedin vitro as potential scavenger of oxygen free radicals. Super oxide anions were generated in a system containing xanthine—xanthine oxidase (enzymic system) and by NADH- phenozine methosulphate (non enzymic system). Anions were assayed in terms of uric acid formation and reduction of nitroblue tetrazolium salt, which were shown to be suppressed by tea extracts. Extracts from both leaf and dust also inhibted the formation of hydroxyl radicalsin vitro in the enzymic system comprising hypoxanthine—Cu⁺²—sodium ascorbate and xanthine oxidase and in non enzymic system of deoxyribose—Cu⁺²—sodium ascorbate and H₂O₂ as well as the Cu⁺² induced lipid peroxidation in human low density lipoprotein. Feeding with black tea in normal rats for sixty days increased their antioxidant activity and their liver microsomes were shown to be protected against peroxidation of lipids as stimulated by metal ions with enzymic or non enzymic reactants. Furthermore feeding with tea extracts in normal as well as triton WR—1339 induced hyperlipidemic rats caused decrease in their plasma levels of total cholesterol, phospholipids and triglycerides. The antioxidant and lipid lowering activities of both extracts from CTC leaf and dust tea was comparable and may be due to the presence of natural products like catechin and others.     

Assessing Model Similarity in Structural Equation Modeling

Two models can be nonequivalent, but fit very similarly across a wide range of data sets. These near-equivalent models, like equivalent models, should be considered rival explanations for results of a study if they represent plausible explanations for the phenomenon of interest. Prior to conducting a study, researchers should evaluate plausible models that are alternatives to those hypothesized to evaluate whether they are near-equivalent or equivalent and, in so doing, address the adequacy of the study’s methodology. To assess the extent to which alternative models for a study are empirically distinguishable, we propose 5 indexes that quantify the degree of similarity in fit between 2 models across a specified universe of data sets. These indexes compare either the maximum likelihood fit function values or the residual covariance matrices of models. Illustrations are provided to support interpretations of these similarity indexes.     

Explaining the substantial inter-domain and over-time correlations in student achievement: the importance of stable student attributes

Multi-domain and longitudinal studies of student achievement routinely find moderate to strong correlations across achievement domains and even stronger within-domain correlations over time. The purpose of this study is to examine the sources of these patterns analysing student achievement in 5 domains across Years 3, 5 and 7. The analysis is of longitudinal population data of over 22,000 students and utilizes fixed-effects models to incorporate stable general and domain-specific latent factors. These latent factors correspond to a general cognitive-ability-like factor and specific aptitudes in particular, or types of, subject areas. The preferred model incorporates both general and domain-specific latent factors with stronger effects for the general factor, although the domain-specific factors are particularly strong for spelling and numeracy. When taking into account general and domain-specific latent factors, the effects of student’s socioeconomic status (SES) and school SES are trivial.     

主应力轴旋转情况下土的各向异性理论研究进展

从理论方面,对国内外主应力轴旋转情况下土的各向异性研究进行了对比和总结,并提出了一些研究建议。指出在理论方面,应当对屈服面方程采用应力分量表示的模型在三维空间里进行屈服面性状的描述,同时考虑不同加载方向下屈服面的变化特性以及旋转硬化的问题,并应开展对加载方向变化时土体屈服面变化特性的实验研究及理论验证。     

Software review

STATISTICA 5.0. StatSoft, 2325 East 13th Street, Tulsa, OK 74104, (918) 583–4149. $995 retail, academic site license—$2,000 for 10 copies. Requirements: 386 or better, 4 Meg RAM, Microsoft Windows 3.1 or 95.     

Fitting Nonlinear Latent Growth Curve Models With Individually Varying Time Points

Individual growth trajectories of psychological phenomena are often theorized to be nonlinear. Additionally, individuals’ measurement schedules might be unique. In a structural equation framework, latent growth curve model (LGM) applications typically have either (a) modeled nonlinearity assuming some degree of balance in measurement schedules, or (b) accommodated truly individually varying time points, assuming linear growth. This article describes how to fit 4 popular nonlinear LGMs (polynomial, shape-factor, piecewise, and structured latent curve) with truly individually varying time points, via a definition variable approach. The extension is straightforward for certain nonlinear LGMs (e.g., polynomial and structured latent curve) but in the case of shape-factor LGMs requires a reexpression of the model, and in the case of piecewise LGMs requires introduction of a general framework for imparting piecewise structure, along with tools for its automation. All 4 nonlinear LGMs with individually varying time scores are demonstrated using an empirical example on infant weight, and software syntax is provided. The discussion highlights some advantages of modeling nonlinear growth within structural equation versus multilevel frameworks, when time scores individually vary.     

Activity theory: A framework for design and reporting on research projects based on ICT

We propose using activity theory as a basis for designing and reporting on research projects that focus on information and communication technology (ICT) as a means to support educational processes. Adopting the theory, we describe teaching/learning activities mediated by ICT using a three level analysis: epistemological, methodological, social assistance. The analysis has been applied to the design and reporting of projects in both mathematics education at primary school level and training in technical innovation in commercial enterprises.