网络话题传播规律建模与预测问题研究

[目的/意义]构建数学模型研究网络话题传播规律建模和预测问题，为深入研究网络话题传播规律提供理论参考。[方法/过程]定性分析网络话题传播的大数据特征、可量化性、可度量周期性、可预测性等特征，通过分析网络话题传播机理，构建网络话题传播规律的常态模型和衍生模型，提出划分网络话题传播阶段的一般方法，并据此研究网络话题传播趋势预测方法。[结论/结果]通过"雾霾"微博话题数据开展实证分析，能够较好地划分传播阶段并预测传播趋势，由此，根据本文构建的数学模型研究网络话题传播规律是可行的。     

基于组合神经网络的聚合物质量预测

介绍了一种将组合神经网络用于聚合物质量预测的方法．由定量数据建立的单一神经网络模型往往缺乏泛化能力，而使用组合神经网络模型则可以显著改善模型的泛化能力．由于在建立组合神经网络模型过程中，合适的组合权重对模型是否具有良好预测性能是非常重要的，因此采用了岭回归方法来选择合适的组合权重．所提出的方法已成功应用于PVC颗粒特性的预测研究中。研究结果表明，与单一神经网络模型相比，组合神经网络模型具有更佳的模型预测精度和鲁棒性．     

噪声应激对血压及心率变异性的影响

对被试者分别进行80dB和100dB的噪声刺激，并在第1、5、10、15和20d测定被试者的动脉血压和心电图，并分析心率变异性变化。实验结果表明：噪声应激使被试者的收缩压升高，心率加快．但对舒张压影响不明显，心率变异性频谱分析显示，高频成分、低频成分增大，而R-R间期减小，而且100dB的作用比80dB显著。提示噪声应激对人体心血管系统的活动有明显的影响。     

渔船备件费用的灰色预测模型及应用

备件是渔船的必需品,渔船备件费用预测是渔业公司管理的难题之一。本文基于灰色理论对渔船备件费用进行了预测,计算结果表明,灰色预测模型算法简单,精度较高,是一种较为理想的预测方法。     

高浓度污染气象条件分析和预报

CAPPS预报系统对一、二级空气质量预报效果较好，但高浓度污染预报能力较差．从天气系统和气象条件入手，分析了高浓度污染日的成因，提出将气象条件判别方法、天气学方法和CAPPS等几种预报方法的结果进行集成预报，可以有效地提高高浓度污染预报能力。     

Personality traits as a predictor of academic achievement in adolescents

The study examined the predictive value of adolescents’ personality trait ratings by different groups of informants in explaining academic achievement [grade point average (GPA)] while controlling for students’ sex and their mothers’ education. The Inventory of Child/Adolescent Individual Differences was employed as a measure of students’ personality traits at the end of elementary schooling (mean age = 14.7 years) and two years later when the participants attended secondary schools. The trait ratings were obtained through self‐, maternal and peer reports at both measurement occasions. They explained substantial portions of unique variance in the students’ GPA concurrently, and over time. Ratings by each of the three groups of informants had an incremental validity over one another in predicting school grades. Among personality variables, conscientiousness and low extraversion were consistently predictive of GPA.     

只业教育的春天离我们还有多远

近几年,国家对具有战略地位的职业教育重视程度日益凸显,为了避免“技工荒”,增加劳动技术含量,许多企业也对职业教育倾注了少有的热情。随着各种投入的不断加大,各项保障性法规的相继出台,使人们感觉到冰封已久的职业教育终于迎来了蓬勃发展的春天。然而由于各地政府对职业教育重要性认识的差异、职业教育院校本身的专业结构、培养人才模式等方面存在的偏差,以及农村职业教育和农村劳动力培训面临的诸多困境,致使职业教育的发展步履艰难,任重而道远。     

Predicting citation counts based on deep neural network learning techniques

With the growing number of published scientific papers world-wide, the need to evaluation and quality assessment methods for research papers is increasing. Scientific fields such as scientometrics, informetrics, and bibliometrics establish quantified analysis methods and measurements for evaluating scientific papers. In this area, an important problem is to predict the future influence of a published paper. Particularly, early discrimination between influential papers and insignificant papers may find important applications. In this regard, one of the most important metrics is the number of citations to the paper, since this metric is widely utilized in the evaluation of scientific publications and moreover, it serves as the basis for many other metrics such as h-index. In this paper, we propose a novel method for predicting long-term citations of a paper based on the number of its citations in the first few years after publication. In order to train a citation count prediction model, we employed artificial neural network which is a powerful machine learning tool with recently growing applications in many domains including image and text processing. The empirical experiments show that our proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art methods with respect to the prediction accuracy in both yearly and total prediction of the number of citations.     

基于类重叠度欠采样的不平衡模糊多类支持向量机

传统的欠采样方法容易丢失重要的样本信息,且其实验结果的稳定性较差。针对上述问题,提出一种基于类重叠度欠采样的不平衡数据模糊多类支持向量机算法。该算法首先采用LOF局部离群点因子和箱线图的方法清洗训练数据集中的噪声样本,然后根据类重叠度抽取对分类起关键作用的支持向量,并且将代表每个样本点重要程度的类重叠度作为隶属度值,构造模糊多类支持向量机。实验结果表明,该算法克服了随机欠采样的支持向量机容易丢失重要样本信息和实验结果不稳定的缺点,且很好地提升了支持向量机在不平衡且含噪声的数据集上的分类精度,并保持较高的计算效率。     

应用于钱塘江、太湖流域面雨量预报的MM5产品释用技术

在2007～2009年浙江省气象台钱塘江、太湖流域面雨量24 h、48 h预报的基础之上,开展了面雨量释用研究,采用的方法为对数线性释用方法,释用后预报可信度明显增加.本文对面雨量的模糊评分方法做了改进,使之更具有实际可操作性.试验证明,用绝对误差和改进的模糊评分两种办法结合起来对面雨量预报做检验,能够较客观的反映预报...