最佳说明的推理及其科学实在论辩护

“最佳说明的推理”是一种依据假说给证据的说明程度来确定假说合理性的推理。它认为,理论在说明上的那种“最佳”状态描述了理论的经验适当性,即“最佳”的理论是趋真的,理论实体的预言空白得到了填充。这样,IBE既可被看做是对科学理论发明和科学推理过程的正确刻画,又被赋予了给由它所带来的结论以认识论上的保证,在科学实在论上具有重要的辩护作用。     

Digital Module 06: Bayesian Psychometrics—Posterior Predictive Model Checking https://ncme.elevate.commpartners.com

Drawing valid inferences from modern measurement models is contingent upon a good fit of the data to the model. Violations of model‐data fit have numerous consequences, limiting the usefulness and applicability of the model. As Bayesian estimation is becoming more common, understanding the Bayesian approaches for evaluating model‐data fit models is critical. In this instructional module, Allison Ames and Aaron Myers provide an overview of Posterior Predictive Model Checking (PPMC), the most common Bayesian model‐data fit approach. Specifically, they review the conceptual foundation of Bayesian inference as well as PPMC and walk through the computational steps of PPMC using real‐life data examples from simple linear regression and item response theory analysis. They provide guidance for how to interpret PPMC results and discuss how to implement PPMC for other model(s) and data. The digital module contains sample data, SAS code, diagnostic quiz questions, data‐based activities, curated resources, and a glossary.     

On stochastic dependence

The contrary of stochastic independence splits up into two cases: pairs of events being favourable or being unfavourable. Examples show that both notions have quite unexpected properties, some of them being opposite to intuition. For example, transitivity does not hold. Stochastic dependence is also useful to explain cases of Simpson's paradox.     

叙词表映射语义判定和自动推理规则探析

利用映射方法进行叙词表互操作研究,用以解决用户集成的主题检索问题。叙词表映射可依据相关的规则来保证映射数据的质量,包括依据词表收录的学科范围、用代关系、语义结构、范围注释和时间注释来进行语义判断的指导规则,以及映射的自动继承和传递推理规则,这些规则的综合运用可在一定程度上保证映射数据的准确性。     

高管团队特征、制造企业服务创新与绩效

学者们的研究普遍显示出制造企业在服务创新的过程中会出现利润水平的波动,即所谓"服务化困境"问题,这可能源自于企业管理者对于服务创新战略认知上的差异,因此管理者自身的思维能力左右着企业服务化战略的实施效果,由此本文试图将企业管理者因素纳入研究范畴,从高层梯队理论的视角对服务化与绩效之间的关系进行检验分析,通过对我国上市制造企业2007-2013期间的企业面板数据进行门槛效应检验,实证研究结果证实管理团队特质对企业服务化战略实施效果的存在明显的门槛效应。     

Exploring statistical inference for population means through rubber chickens

Obtaining relevant data and conveying limitations of the results are two integral components to a successful statistical analysis. It is difficult for students to internalize a deep understanding of these components using only curated, textbook‐style examples. Through hands‐on data collection, this activity provides a channel for students to experience all steps, from start to finish, of a data analysis for means with paired data. Students are able to experience the challenges associated with good data collection practices and relate these practices to the underlying methodological assumptions.     

似非而是的隽语对现代生活的启示作用

本文介绍了似非而是的隽语(paradox),揭示了它作为一种认知方式,而不是作为一种传统的修辞格对日益发展的现代社会的启示作用:它帮助我们用辨证的观点看问题,从而更透彻地分析现代社会中的矛盾现象,对其进行更深入的思考。隽语该功能的实现有赖于读者头脑中的图式知识,因此本文还从图式角度剖析了隽语的概念表达过程和读者对它的解读过程。     

从刻板印象到理论探索：关于“中国学习者”研究的述评

“中国学习者”是国际上中国教育研究领域的新兴议题,旨在从国际和比较视野剖析中国学生群体的学习特点,为建构有中国特色的学生学习理论提供重要参考。本文通过对中国学习者研究文献的系统查阅和述评,认为本领域研究可划分为三个阶段：消极刻板评价（20世纪80年代）、破解“中国学习者悖论”（20世纪90年代）、理论探索和反思超越（21世纪初至今）。研究呈现出三个主要特点：价值取向从过于消极到过度积极再趋于客观,研究内容从学习方式向理论探索和影响因素扩展,解释视角从文化主义向教师教学等视角转变。中国研究者需要更多地参与到本领域研究中,持续加强研究的“中国立场”,展现更为真实而复杂的中国学生学习样态,提升在本领域的理论贡献水平和国际话语权,并完善研究思路以服务中国教育教学的改革。     

外语对白:创作与接受的悖论

悖论通常是指条件与结论相互违背的命题和推论。由于近 2 0年来国产电影广泛地使用外语对白 ,从而导致了创作的真实与接受的真实的背离与矛盾 ,亦即关于生活真实与艺术真实的悖论。这个悖论产生的根本原因 ,就是当前一些导演们只注重创作的真实 ,而忽视接受的真实的结果。本文就解决这一问题的方法 ,提出了个人的见解。     

Media Covid misinformation due to confounding

We discuss a case study on how misinformation regarding Covid-19 health outcomes can arise due to confounding. Data from the UK on mortality rates suggest that people who have some level of vaccination and contract the Delta variant of Covid are twice as likely to die than those who are unvaccinated. Age, however, a confounding variable, when accounted for, produces a more complicated picture. The mortality rates for the vaccinated are statistically lower than the unvaccinated for the older but not younger age group. We present several approaches for teaching confounding to help students better understand this underemphasized concept's cause, effects, and origins.