儿童少年身高预测研究

身高预测是运动员选材和儿童少年体质研究中的一项重要工作，涉及到遗传学、医学、营养学等不同的学科领域。本文对身高发育中的有关因素和目前国内外应用较为普遍的几类预测方法进行了综合分析，并重点探讨了骨龄预测法，提出了预测身高过程中应重点注意的问题。     

基于移动趋势的轨迹隐私保护研究综述

移动设备的普及为基于位置的服务应用带来新的发展机遇,但在使用LBS时造成的轨迹隐私泄露问题成为LBS普及的隐患.轨迹泛化法是一种轨迹隐私保护技术,在保护轨迹隐私的同时还可提高服务质量.基于组的轨迹隐私保护技术特点,对不考虑移动趋势的轨迹泛化法进行分析,总结基于移动趋势的轨迹隐私保护方法并对未来研究方向进行展望.     

What makes learners a good fit for hybrid learning? Learning competences as predictors of experience and satisfaction in hybrid learning space

Compared with fully face-to-face or online learning environments, implementation of hybrid learning spaces is costly given the spaces making all learning options available for learners. Therefore, decisions on investments in hybrid learning are critical for institutions. Satisfaction and experience of learners is one of the important indicators for assessing the cost-effectiveness of learning space implementation; thus, predictions of learners' satisfaction and experience can inform institutions' decision making on learning space investments. Moreover, learning competences are found correlated with learners' satisfaction and experience in general and e-learning settings. Therefore, the present study aimed at exploring predictive learning competences for hybrid learners' experience and satisfaction. A hybrid learning space was built upon a proposed model at Shanghai Open University. 211 students’ learning competences and their satisfaction and experience in the hybrid learning space were examined. The results showed that except cognitive engagement competence, most predictive competences were not significantly associated with hybrid learners' satisfaction and experience. The findings indicated that since hybrid learning keeps all options available, to experience satisfying learning, students need not have certain competences but cognitive engagement competence, which is correlated with learners' cognitive ability to figure out the right mix of learning options.     

A school-based intervention on elementary students’ school engagement

Prior research has reported signs of low engagement in the early stages of schooling. The present study assessed the effectiveness of a school-based intervention that promotes cognitive, emotional, and behavioral engagement in elementary school children through a story tool. The study followed a cluster-randomized design with 259 fourth graders nested in 12 classes; the classes, not the individuals, were randomly assigned to an intervention or control group. Both groups were assessed in four waves in two measures for each engagement dimension. Data were analyzed with a multilevel approach. Findings show that the intervention enhanced students’ cognitive, emotional, and behavioral engagement. Still, there is a delay before the intervention program exhibits a beneficial effect.Moreover, gender discrepancies were found. Before the intervention, girls showed higher cognitive and emotional engagement, but boys exhibited higher emotional engagement after the intervention. In addition, current results indicate that the program benefited the boys more than the girls. Finally, there was no evidence that the engagement outcomes differed depending on the parent’s educational level. Findings provide valuable information for future research and educational practice.     

地质超前预报系统在栋梁坡隧道施工中的应用

基于地震反射波法超前预测系统的原理及主要技术手段,以栋梁坡隧道工程为实例,针对隧道复杂的地质条件,施工过程中将超前地质预报和地质素描调查相结合,先对隧道全段范围内地形、地层岩性等进行全面核查,然后结合核查结果运用地震反射波法预报掌子面前方的节理裂隙发育情况,围岩完整性等地质信息.开挖后验证情况与预测结果基本一致,为后续...     

河西地区内陆河流域地表水资源及动态趋势分析

河西地区是甘肃省主要经济地区之一，是国家下世纪初大规模开发大西北的纽带与依托。河西地区未来的经济发展规模，在很大的程度上取决于本地区水资源的承载能力。本文对河西地区内陆河流域天然地表水资源进行了计算和评价；对天然地表径流的变化特征进行了分析；并对河西地区>河西地区、内陆河流域、地表水资源、变化特征、动态过程、趋势预测     

对我国90年代年度地震预报的评估

采用R评分方法 ,对中国地震局 1 990到 1 998年的年度地震预报进行了统计和评估 .随机猜测预报R为 0 ,完全准确预报R为 1 .我国 90年代的年度预报R评分平均为 0 .1 84.如果把地震局实际预报与选取最大背景概率地区预报相结合 ,可以使R评分提高到 0 .336 .统计表明 ,中国年度地震预报对 5级以上地震的预报水平还不高 ,特别是在人烟稀少、台站缺乏的高地震背景概率区 ,预报效果较低 ;但在人口密集、经济发达的重点监测地区 ,中国地震局年度预报高于随机预报 ,实际预报取得了一定效果 .     

一个新的大样本ENSO集合预报系统的发展与检验

详细介绍了一个新的大样本集合预报系统. 为了减小ENSO(厄尔尼诺-南方涛动)预报中的预报不确定性,该集合预报系统首先基于一个中等复杂程度的耦合模式,利用集合卡尔曼滤波资料同化方法同化有效的海洋观测资料为集合预报系统提供集合初始场;同时,一个发展的用于12个月预报的一阶线性马尔可夫(Markov)随机误差模式被嵌套到集合预报系统中来模拟模式不确定性. 基于1992年11月~2008年10月100个样本的集合回报试验,从确定性预报技巧和概率预报技巧2个方面对集合预报系统的预报水平进行了检验. 该集合预报方法能够很有效地将传统的确定性预报扩展到概率预报领域,且检验结果表明,预报样本均值的预报水平要优于单一的确定性预报. 对于概率预报而言,集合预报样本能够很好地跟随观测的变化,并且能够提供单纯确定性预报所不能够提供的额外信息.     

中国智能网联汽车产业人才需求预测研究

为科学预测智能网联汽车（ICV）人才需求,采用定性与定量研究相结合的方法,确定ICV产业人才的结构,明确以研发技术人才为预测对象,构建分层级多指标的ICV人才需求预测模型,基于情景分析,得出未来5年ICV产业人才的需求量,并分析ICV产业不同类型研发技术人才以及不同业务模块人才的需求差异。     

基于PSO和多元线性回归的奥运会奖牌预测分析

针对传统奥运会成绩预测模型中存在的不足,提出一种将PSO和多元线性回归分析相结合的预测模型。分析多元线性回归和PSO算法后,结合体育比赛的特点,通过PSO优化迭代计算,确定奖牌统计模型中各回归系数,建立了奥运会参赛国成绩与回归系数之间复杂的非线性关系。利用Matlab对建立奖牌模型进行了验证,预测精度高。