基于VAR模型的中国消费价格指数分析

本文在建立中国消费价格指数、货币供给增长和固定资产投资增长的VAR模型的基础上,通过对脉冲响应函数及其方差分解的研究,一方面得出了消费价格指数对本身的冲击和对滞后的固定资产投资的冲击是敏感的,而对货币供给量的增长率的变化是不敏感的结论;另一方面得到了一个从粮食种植面积减少到消费价格指数上升的传递机制和货币供给量的增长率的一个不能被公众预测的突发性变化到消费价格指数同方向变化的传导机制。最后提出了相应的政策建议:在政策层面上仍应以稳健为主。加强对土地开发利用的管理,抑制耕地面积下降的势头,通过灵活运用隐蔽性较强的货币政策调节货币供给量。加强对政府投资特别是地方政府投资的管理,减少固定资产投资中的非理性因素。     

Responses to oral glucose challenge differ by physical activity volume and intensity: A pilot study

BackgroundOne-hour postprandial hyperglycemia is associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Physical activity (PA) has short-term beneficial effects on post-meal glucose response. This study compared the oral glucose tolerance test results of 3 groups of people with habitually different levels of PA.MethodsThirty-one adults without diabetes (age 25.9 ± 6.6 years; body mass index 23.8 ± 3.8 kg/m²; mean ± SD) were recruited and divided into 3 groups based on self-reported PA volume and intensity: low activity < 30 min/day of moderate-intensity activity (n = 11), moderately active ≥ 30 min/day of moderate-intensity PA (n = 10), and very active ≥ 60 min/day of PA at high intensity (n = 10). Participants completed an oral glucose tolerance test (50 g glucose) with capillary blood samples obtained at baseline, 15 min, 30 min, 45 min, 60 min, 90 min, and 120 min post-ingestion.ResultsThere were no significant differences between groups for age or body fat percentage or glycated hemoglobin (p > 0.05). The groups were significantly different in terms of baseline glucose level (p = 0.003) and, marginally, for gender (p = 0.053) and BMI (p = 0.050). There was a statistically significant effect of PA on the 1-h postprandial glucose results (p = 0.029), with differences between very active and low activity groups (p = 0.008) but not between the moderately active and low activity groups (p = 0.360), even when baseline glucose level and gender differences were accounted for. For incremental area under the curve there was no significant effect of activity group once gender and body fat percentage had been accounted for (p = 0.401). Those in the low activity group took 15 min longer to reach peak glucose level than those in the very active group (p = 0.012).ConclusionThe results suggest that high levels of PA have a beneficial effect on postprandial blood glucose profiles when compared to low and moderate levels of activity.     

关键反应训练法干预自闭症儿童主动提问技能的个案研究

为探讨关键反应训练法对自闭症儿童主动提问技能的干预效果,采用单一被试研究中的跨行为多基线实验设计对一名自闭症儿童的物品主动提问、人物主动提问、地点主动提问等三个主动提问技能进行干预。研究结果表明关键反应训练法对自闭症儿童主动提问技能具有立即效果、维持效果和类化效果。为此,可以应用关键反应训练法对自闭症儿童进行训练。     

汉-英双语者心理词汇的发展研究

本研究应用反应时测量,探究汉-英双语者心理词汇的结构和发展.被试为两组大学生,执行汉-英翻译判断任务.576组实验材料由拉丁方分配为四个词表,均包含翻译词对、词形干扰词对、语义干扰词对和无关词对.组间比较发现,只有语义干扰效应量有显著差异.组内比较显示,只有高水平组语义干扰大于词形干扰.结果提示,汉-英双语者心理词汇结...     

Systems model and individual simulations of training strategies in elite short-track speed skaters

This study aimed to evaluate the effect of simulated training strategies on performance potential in elite short-track speed skaters. Training load and field-based criterion performances from fifteen athletes (10 males, 5 females) were collected over a 3-month training period and the relationship between training loads and performance was computed with a variable dose-response model using a genetic algorithm. Individual simulations of tapers preceded or not preceded by an overload training (OT) were assessed. We obtained a significant correlation between actual and modelled performances (R² = 0.76 ± 0.07). Regarding model parameters, no significant difference was found between males and females but the time to recover performance tended to be lower in females. Simulations in which the taper parameters were free highlighted that an exponential or a step taper were the most effective for increasing performance compared to a linear taper (p < 0.05). Optimal exponential taper duration after OT was 10.7 ± 2.4d and the optimal load reduction was 75.9 ± 3.7%. OT intensity had the greatest influence on the predicted performance, followed by OT duration, taper decay, and to a lesser extent load reduction during taper and taper duration. Thus, a variable dose-response systems model allows the evaluation of different taper strategies and their potential effect on performance changes.     

不同抗阻训练方案对T淋巴细胞亚群迁移和凋亡的影响*

研究旨在探讨一次不同抗阻训练方案对外周血CD4＋和CD8＋T淋巴细胞亚群迁移和凋亡的影响。通过实验法15名无训练经历的健康青年男性分别进行一次以促进肌肉肥大（H-RT组,方案：70%1RM,10RM,3组,组间间歇1.5 min）和以改善肌肉耐力（E-RT组,方案：60%1RM,15RM,3组,组间间歇1 min）为目的的抗阻训练方案。并于训练前、训练后即刻、训练后2 h和24 h利用流式细胞仪测定表面标志物CX3CR1和annexin V表达量检测CD4＋、CD8＋T淋巴细胞亚群迁移和凋亡（用阳性表达率表示）。得出以下数据：（1）CD4＋T细胞在H-RT组运动后即刻和运动后24 h,annexin V和CX3CR1阳性表达率显著性升高（P<0.05）。E-RT组annexin V阳性表达率在运动后即刻降低（P<0.05）,24 h显著性升高（P<0.05）;CX3CR1阳性表达率仅在运动后即刻升高（P<0.05）。（2）CD8＋T细胞在H-RT组和E-RT组运动后即刻和运动后24 h,annexin V和CX3CR1阳性表达率均显著性升高（P<0.05）。通过对以上数据的分析,研究得出以下结论：CD4＋T淋巴细胞亚群对于急性抗阻训练的免疫反应存在运动方案依赖性。     

降水对蔬菜价格的冲击效应——以广州为例

降水对蔬菜价格波动有重要影响,分析降水的蔬菜价格冲击效应对菜价预测及市场供需调整具有重要意义.本文首先构建了一个包含降水因素的蔬菜供需动态模型,揭示逐日降水对菜价的影响机制,并阐明了降水对不同蔬菜冲击效应存在异质性的原因;然后基于广州市2004-2018年逐日的菜心、生菜和豆角3种蔬菜零售价格数据及降水数据,采用VAR...     

网络谣言研究比较分析——以图书情报学科与新闻传播学科为例

[目的/意义]探究图书情报学科与新闻传播学科在网络谣言研究中的发展现状与研究热点,比较分析两门学科在网络谣言研究中的共性与差异性。[方法/过程]采用文献计量与内容分析方法,对发表于图书情报学科与新闻传播学科的CSSCI与北大中文核心期刊中关于网络谣言研究的文献,从发文机构、核心作者以及关键词这三个方面进行了比较分析。[结果/结论]两门学科关于网络谣言的研究有着网络谣言研究方法的差异性、谣言传播研究的不同方向、网络谣言研究对象的相似性,同时也发现两门学科在论文发表方面存在着融合研究。建议加强本学科的相互合作、加强两门学科间的融合研究、两门学科间互相吸纳研究方法。     

在华跨国公司独资化倾向分析

跨国公司独资化趋势引起学术界和产业界,甚至政府的广泛关注,本文对独资化的概念、趋势、影响进行详细的界定与阐释,并提出C-R模型分析独资化产生的原因,分析了两种现象--跨国公司独资化趋势与中外合资企业不断出现--将长期并存的原因,最后本文提出了应对独资化的一些宏观和微观建议。     

中国气候对全球气温增暖的响应

近４０年来，在全球气候变暖的背景下，中国气候也有明显的增暖趋势，北部增暖最明显，与全球平均温度变化相似，长江流域变暖不明显．冬季增暖最突出，夏季在部分地区有降温现象．近４０年，全国平均降水量趋于减少，北部减少最明显，中心在华北及山东半岛；长江中上游降水偏丰．表明近期我国气候对全球气温变暖的响应特点，主要表现表式：北方为暖—干型；长江流域为冷—湿型；华南大部为弱暖—干型