基于凯恩斯消费模型的湖南省城市居民体育消费力的研究

体育消费作为社会休闲消费的重要组成部分,是衡量社会闲暇时间和经济的重要标志,或者说是标志社会幸福程度的数据之一,进入普遍有闲的社会是人类的共同理想。随着科学技术进步,生产力的发展和社会分工的越来越细致,劳动者的劳动时间不断减少,体育锻炼在人们生活中的地位越来越重要,或者说,体育消费在人均体育资源相对短缺的都市,也凸显重要,用钱换闲,换来健康和科学合理的体育锻炼指导是一种新的城市人的需求和经济增长点。作者认为可以把体育所需要的时间及收入纳入到消费函数中进行分析。在市场行为下,时间的商品化、服务的质量和市场化程度成为体育消费在消费函数中的基本约束。     

Promoting Pre‐experimental Activities in High‐school Chemistry: Focusing on the role of students’ epistemic questions

In high‐school chemistry the pre‐experimental phase of inquiry cycles often remains neglected. According to a procedural model, which is described in the text, this phase begins with an observation that stimulates students’ prior factual knowledge, the formulation of a research question for further elaboration (epistemic questions), the anticipation of a hypothetical answer, and the planning of experimental steps for deciding on the hypothetical answer. These activities were explicitly prescribed in an experimental group of 28 10th‐graders. Raising the quality of students’ epistemic research questions by providing structured help was a special focus of the intervention. Hypothesised motivational and cognitive effects were measured and compared with a group of 25 students (control group) who engaged in non‐structured pre‐experimental activities. The intervention provided to the experimental group resulted in stronger preferences for a more open and non‐recipe type of experimentation, in more intense cognitive activities (thoughts), and, most importantly, in increased skills for formulating causal epistemic questions. Supporting such procedural skills in classrooms may contribute to transforming labwork into intentional activities and students into active learners by helping them focus on further elaborating their knowledge.     

Solving the equity–equality conceptual dilemma: a new model for analysis of the educational process

Background Over the past four decades there have been a number of controversies arising from the discussion of ‘equity’ and ‘equality’. These concepts are often invoked by policy analysts, policy-makers, government officials and scholars in order to justify or critique resource allocation to different levels of the educational system.

Purpose By creating a new equality–equity goal-oriented model, which allows the combination of different dimensions for each concept with different stages of the educational process, this paper aims to achieve two purposes: (1) to clarify among researchers, educators, evaluators, policy analysts, and policy-makers the notions of ‘equality’ and ‘equity’; and (2) to encourage researchers and evaluators to critically examine and synthesize equality/equity-based research.

Sources of evidence A review of the literature concerning the meaning, goals and assumptions of the concepts ‘equity’ and ‘equality’, and their implications for social and public policy, is presented.

Main argument A survey of recent and earlier debates on ‘equity’ and ‘equality’ among scholars and researchers reveals disagreement and confusion about what those concepts really mean and what they involve in terms of goals and results. It is debatable whether we can have ‘equity’ and ‘equality’ in a society that prioritizes efficiency in resource management over social justice. Certainly, such questions have shaped and guided many discussions and theoretical debates among scholars, policy analysts and policy-makers.

Conclusions Most of the definitions of ‘equity’ and ‘equality’ are frequently used by many researchers, evaluators, policy-makers, policy analysts, scholars and educators as if they were interchangeable. Instead of arguing for a unique or simple conception of ‘equity’ and ‘equality’, a set of definitions of those concepts as well as a discussion related to theoretical and policy issues associated are presented. In order to avoid that confusion, the equality–equity model developed in this paper suggests several new directions for analysis and research. It provides some ideas about how ‘equity’ (i.e. ‘equity for equal needs’, ‘equity for equal potential’ and ‘equity for equal achievement’) and ‘equality’ (i.e. ‘equality of opportunity’, ‘equality for all’ and ‘equality on average across social groups’) could be treated and measured in future research in relation to different features of the educational process (availability of resources, access, survival, output and outcome).     

A Simulation Study Evaluating the Generalized Additive Model for Assessing Intervention Effects with Small Samples

Single subject (SS) designs are popular in educational and psychological research. There exist several statistical techniques designed to analyze such data and to address the question of whether an intervention has the desired impact. Recently, researchers have suggested that generalized additive models (GAMs) might be useful for modeling nonlinear effects that are common with SS designs. This study sought to extend the use of GAM from SS to a research design in which individuals may be placed in separate groups and receive different interventions. Results of the simulation study found that using a mixed model form of GAM (GAMM) resulted in higher power for detecting actual effects in the population than was true for either GAM or a Bayesian GAM estimator. Thus, GAMMs are recommended for use with SS designs when interventions are expected to induce nonlinear relationships between time and the outcome variable and individuals receive different treatments.     

基于组合模型的我国煤炭需求预测

文章首先分别建立灰色GM（1,1）预测、Holt．Winters无季节性指数平滑预测和BP神经网络预测模型对中国1980—2011年的煤炭需求进行定量分析,然后建立组合预测模型,最后采用组合预测模型预测2012—2021年我国的煤炭需求量,结果表明这十年间我国煤炭需求量稳步增长。到2021年,需求量达到539942万吨。     

英语文学阅读课程有效教学模式的建构——基于教学系统设计理论的探索

在当前国内英语专业课程设置中,文学类课程的重要性正日益受到低估。本文将教学系统设计理论运用于文学阅读教学当中,试图建构一种文学类课程的有效教学模式。在借鉴ADDIE模型、布鲁姆教育目标分类学、加涅“九大教学事件”等教学设计理论的基础上,本文强调文学课程应制定明确的教学目标、采用整体性的教学策略、运用多元化的教学方法。本着“以学习者为中心”的理念,并结合文学阅读课程的特点,本文提出了文学类课程的“CREAM”教学模式,旨在提高学生的课堂学习体验。     

基于贝叶斯概率模型的鄂西北山地区耕地整治适宜性评价

在中国耕地保护形势日益严峻的情况下,如何在山地区开展耕地整治项目布局,提高耕地整治效率,是当前开展山地区土地整治规划工作的重要内容,而耕地整治适宜性评价则是耕地整治项目布局的前提。本文以鄂西北山地区房县为研究区域,选取灌溉保证率、地形坡度、土壤质地、有效土层厚度、耕地系数、与道路距离、与城镇中心距离和田块规模指数8个评价指标,运用贝叶斯概率模型计算影响因素权重和耕地整治的后验概率,并得到研究区耕地整治的适宜性分布图,最后进行预测结果检验。结果表明：①在影响山地区耕地整治的因素中,耕地系数、灌溉保证率、地形坡度、与道路距离四个因素对耕地整治影响程度比田块规模指数、有效土层厚度、与城镇中心距离和土壤质地4个因素对耕地整治的影响程度大;②对2013年耕地整治项目布局与适宜性分布图进行对比分析,有88.81%处于适宜性整治区,说明该模型具有可行性。该文可为耕地整治适宜性评价提供方法借鉴,并为鄂西北山地区更合理科学地开展土地整治规划提供依据。     

基于MDS和模糊逻辑的黄河三角洲土壤质量评估

黄河三角洲土地资源丰富,但降水与蒸发严重失衡,土壤受盐渍化及污染影响严重。为获取该地区土壤质量现状,本研究选取了多个物理和化学指标,利用最小数据集理论,构建适合于研究区土壤质量评估的指标体系,然后采用模糊逻辑模型对土壤质量现状进行评估,并结合土地利用现状分析了主要土地利用类型在不同土壤等级上的分布情况。研究结果表明：经筛选后,黄河三角洲土壤质量评价最小数据集包括pH、TN、AP、AK、有机质和土壤盐分;评估结果显示在空间上土壤质量内陆高于沿海,以中部黄河与刁口河相交处为最优;土壤质量整体上以中等级为主,其中三级类型占比最大为31.22%,农田、园地、林地等主要分布在三级以上土壤,但有部分在低级土壤上存在,而且优质土壤上也存在较多的闲置土地,土地资源利用存在不合理性,有待进一步的优化配置。     

工业循环经济评价方法研究——以宁夏石嘴山市为例

中国是发展中国家,工业循环经济评价应该有自己的标准,在工业经济规模增长的同时,允许环境负荷有一定幅度地增加。基于上述理念,本研究将评价过程分为横向比较和纵向比较两部分：首先,以宁夏石嘴山市作为案例区,将其放在一个由中国东部山东枣庄市、中部河南焦作市、西部内蒙古乌海市、全国等几个层次的区域组成的参照系内,以生态效率为评价指标,分析2005-2013年石嘴山工业循环经济的发展水平;其次,在C模式的基础上,构建工业循环经济发展绩效度量模型,依据环境负荷与经济规模增长之间的倍数关系,通过纵向比较的方法,评价石嘴山工业循环经济发展绩效。本研究的主要结论为：①石嘴山工业增长与环境负荷之间存在比较明显的脱钩现象,但与全国、东中部煤炭资源型城市相比,石嘴山环境效率与资源效率仍然存在比较大的差距;②石嘴山工业循环经济的环境效率好于资源效率,以C模式作为评价标准,目前石嘴山工业循环经济优于高效C模式;③研究显示用C模式作为标准来衡量区域的循环经济发展水平具有一定的现实意义;④从横向比较和纵向比较两个维度评价工业循环经济具有更高的准确性。