福建省2005年"龙王"台风灾害链巨灾分析

根据自然灾害系统理论,结合相关气象、水文、灾情资料,从致灾因子、灾情以及减灾预案等方面对2005年10月2日登陆福建晋江和龙海的“龙王”台风灾害链巨灾进行分析.结果表明:城市地区主要致灾因子是狂风、内涝、积水等,而农村和郊区地区则主要是狂风、洪水、山洪暴发、滑坡、泥石流等;造成巨灾的原因是登陆台风“龙王”引起的灾害链、福建中西部多山地和丘陵、山地性河流(比降大)等自然因素和防洪工程落后、灾害预警机制不够完善、人们防灾意识不够强、灾害风险转移机制不够成熟等人为因素共同造成的.根据巨灾区域差异和成因分析,提出城市地区和平原低地应重点防御内涝,沿海以防御大风和风暴潮为主,山区则应重点防御山洪暴发、滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害为主的对策.     

福建省2005年“龙王”台风灾害链巨灾分析

根据自然灾害系统理论,结合相关气象、水文、灾情资料,从致灾因子、灾情以及减灾预案等方面对2005年10月2日登陆福建晋江和龙海的“龙王”台风灾害链巨灾进行分析.结果表明:城市地区主要致灾因子是狂风、内涝、积水等,而农村和郊区地区则主要是狂风、洪水、山洪暴发、滑坡、泥石流等;造成巨灾的原因是登陆台风“龙王”引起的灾害链、福建中西部多山地和丘陵、山地性河流(比降大)等自然因素和防洪工程落后、灾害预警机制不够完善、人们防灾意识不够强、灾害风险转移机制不够成熟等人为因素共同造成的.根据巨灾区域差异和成因分析,提出城市地区和平原低地应重点防御内涝,沿海以防御大风和风暴潮为主,山区则应重点防御山洪暴发、滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害为主的对策.     

Numerical simulation of water mitigation effects on shock wave with SPH method

The water mitigation effect on the propagation of shock wave was investigated numerically. The traditional smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) method was modified based on Riemann solution. The comparison of numerical results with the analytical solution indicated that the modified SPH method has more advantages than the traditional SPH method. Using the modified SPH algorithm, a series of one-dimensional planar wave propagation problems were investigated, focusing on the influence of the air-gap between the high-pressure air and water and the thickness of water. The numerical results showed that water mitigation effect is significant. Up to 60% shock wave pressure reduction could be achieved with the existence of water, and the shape of shock wave was also changed greatly. It is seemly that the small air-gap between the high-pressure air and water has more influence on water mitigation effect.     

Effect of Foam Cladding for Blast Mitigation:Numerical Simulation

Two numerical simulations were performed to investigate the protective effect of the foam cladding. One simulation is based on a previous experimental study, which is a ballistic pendulum with and without a foam cladding subjected to close-range blast loading. The other model is a steel beam with and without a foam cladding under blast loading. The overpressure due to the blast event can be calculated by the empirical function ConWep or by an arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) coupling model. The first approach is relatively simple and widely used. The second approach can model the propagation of the blast wave in the air and the interaction between the air and the solid. It is found that the pendulum with the foam cladding always swings to a larger rotation angel compared to a bare pendulum. However, the steel beam with an appropriate foam cladding has a smaller deflection compared to the bare beam without a foam cladding. It is concluded that the protective effect of the foam cladding depends on the properties of the foam and the protected structure.     

气候变化适应型城市发展战略研究

世界上大部分经济活动和温室气体排放集中在城市,城市应该承担减缓气候变化的责任。城市人口与财产聚集使得气候变化及自然灾害的影响具有放大效应,城市必须在与之共存中做到趋利避害。为减缓和适应气候变化,建设气候变化适应型城市就成为可持续发展的客观要求。气候变化适应型城市以减缓与适应战略应对气候变化,即通过低碳发展战略减缓气候变化和适应战略来应对气候变化带来的极端事件以及气象灾害频度和强度日益提高的趋势,尽可能减轻气候变化所造成的各种不利影响。气候变化最不利的影响是气象及其衍生灾害,气候适应型城市通过灾害风险管理更好地减缓和适应气候变化及各种灾害风险。     

日本防震抗震减灾新思路和新技术进展及对我国的启示

日本是世界上发生地震最多的国家之一,也是防震抗震减灾技术发展的先行者。我国一些省区也是地震频发的地区,故日本在防震抗震减灾方面的经验对我国有一定程度的参考价值。本文对日本这方面的新进展进行了述评,并建议我国在防震抗震减灾首先要有思路上的创新,防患于未然是最为有效的防震抗震减灾途径,要在防震抗震减灾中积极使用新兴技术。     

The citation disadvantage of clinical research

Biomedical research encompasses diverse types of activities, from basic science (“bench”) to clinical medicine (“bedside”) to bench-to-bedside translational research. It, however, remains unclear whether different types of research receive citations at varying rates. Here we aim to answer this question by using a newly proposed paper-level indicator that quantifies the extent to which a paper is basic science or clinical medicine. Applying this measure to 5 million biomedical papers, we find a systematic citation disadvantage of clinical oriented papers; they tend to garner far fewer citations and are less likely to be hit works than papers oriented towards basic science. At the same time, clinical research has a higher variance in its citation. We also find that the citation difference between basic and clinical research decreases, yet still persists, if longer citation-window is used. Given the increasing adoption of short-term, citation-based bibliometric indicators in funding decisions, the under-cited effect of clinical research may provide disincentives for bio-researchers to venture into the translation of basic scientific discoveries into clinical applications, thus providing explanations of reasons behind the existence of the gap between basic and clinical research that is commented as “valley of death” and the commentary of “extinction” risk of translational researchers. Our work may provide insights to policy-makers on how to evaluate different types of biomedical research.     

2015年超级厄尔尼诺事件的成功预报

2015年初,热带太平洋明显出现了厄尔尼诺事件爆发的一些前期物理信号,这些大气和海洋中呈现的前兆信号与上次爆发超级厄尔尼诺事件的1997年同期非常相似。伴随着赤道西风的增强和暖水的东传,赤道中东太平洋次表层(即洋面以下)暖水不断积聚,赤道东太平洋海温增温也更加显著。到10月份以后,赤道中东太平洋海温已经比常年同期偏高2.0℃-3.0℃以上,发展成为21世纪最强的一次厄尔尼诺事件。相比国际上众多厄尔尼诺模型提前6-9个月未能给出正确预报的现状,在中科院战略先导专项海洋专项的支持下持续发展的厄尔尼诺预报系统(中科院大气所集合预报版本:IAP Leefs_CDA),则提前9个月以上对该超级厄尔尼诺事件的爆发、发展和强度给出了成功的预报,为我国的气候预测和防灾减灾提供了有力的支撑。同时,厄尔尼诺预报系统的另一版本(中科院海洋所确定性预报版本:IOCAS ICM)也首次在美国哥伦比亚大学网站上提供厄尔尼诺实时预报结果。     

Institutionalized biases in the award of research grants: a preliminary analysis revisiting the principle of accumulative advantage

Accumulative advantage in the research system may allow elite groups to secure a disproportionate share of resources. Using grant submissions data to a UK Research Council, associations between success in securing grants and potential sources of advantage are explored, including membership of the peer review cadre, departmental standing, track record, gender and ethnicity. Success in securing grants is associated with several potential sources of advantage, suggesting that factors other than the quality of the research proposed influence outcomes. Differential access to these may contribute to the observed biases in the number of grants won against women and non-white groups.