数据驱动如何化解制造业不确定性风险？基于海尔的案例研究

新一轮科技革命和产业革命来袭,组织面临环境不确定性风险陡增。数据驱动为化解不确定性风险提供了新的可能途径,但目前对数据驱动与企业战略、创新管理等方面的认识仍不够深入和全面。本文选取海尔为案例研究对象,探索制造业企业如何以数据驱动应对和有效化解不确定性风险,并构建中国制造业企业基于数据驱动化解不确定性风险的过程模型。研究发现：制造业企业在创新战略制定、组织架构设计及生产制造转型三个层面均面临不确定性风险。数据驱动类型可归结为组织数据驱动（生产数据、运行数据及平台数据）、用户数据驱动和环境数据驱动,制造业企业以环境数据和平台数据汇聚融合为创新战略制定提供强大动态支撑、以用户数据和运行数据有机结合为组织架构设计提供内在核心动力、以用户数据和生产流程数据相互融通为生产制造提供强劲转型引擎。数据驱动化解不确定性风险机理及过程可概括为基于不同类型的数据驱动构建管理机制,进一步形成多层面数据驱动能力,最终化解战略层面、组织层面及执行层面的不确定性风险。     

Systematic keyword and bias analyses in hate speech detection

Hate speech detection refers broadly to the automatic identification of language that may be considered discriminatory against certain groups of people. The goal is to help online platforms to identify and remove harmful content. Humans are usually capable of detecting hatred in critical cases, such as when the hatred is non-explicit, but how do computer models address this situation? In this work, we aim to contribute to the understanding of ethical issues related to hate speech by analysing two transformer-based models trained to detect hate speech. Our study focuses on analysing the relationship between these models and a set of hateful keywords extracted from the three well-known datasets. For the extraction of the keywords, we propose a metric that takes into account the division among classes to favour the most common words in hateful contexts. In our experiments, we first compared the overlap between the extracted keywords with the words to which the models pay the most attention in decision-making. On the other hand, we investigate the bias of the models towards the extracted keywords. For the bias analysis, we characterize and use two metrics and evaluate two strategies to try to mitigate the bias. Surprisingly, we show that over 50% of the salient words of the models are not hateful and that there is a higher number of hateful words among the extracted keywords. However, we show that the models appear to be biased towards the extracted keywords. Experimental results suggest that fitting models with hateful texts that do not contain any of the keywords can reduce bias and improve the performance of the models.     

构建山区综合减灾与特色产业协同模式，助力我国山区高质量发展

我国山地灾害易发区与经济社会发展滞后区的空间范围高度重叠,长期以来形成的减灾与发展间的疏离和脱节问题,造成极大的资源浪费,成为制约2035年山区同步迈向现代化的关键障碍。文章在系统梳理山区综合减灾与产业发展面临的主要挑战基础之上,基于人地协调论思想创新发展易灾山区的“灾—地—人”绿色协同理论,提出综合减灾与特色产业协同发展的新理念和新模式,剖析了该模式的内外部协同机制、主要协同路径和关键协同技术;系统介绍了四川省凉山彝族自治州喜德县红莫镇热水河小流域综合减灾与产业发展协同示范区建设成果;讨论了在全国山区推广综合减灾与产业发展协同模式的必要性、可行性及具体路径。成果可用于指导我国广大山区巩固脱贫攻坚成效,全面推进乡村振兴战略实践,也有助于提高山区的统筹与治理能力,支撑山区现代化建设。     

Acceptance and resistance of telehealth: The perspective of dual-factor concepts in technology adoption

Telehealth can be used to develop innovative healthcare services for promoting medical quality and efficiency. Despite previous research on users’ adoption intention of telehealth, users’ acceptance and resistance have rarely been considered at the same time. This study used a research model based on the dual-factor concepts of “enablers” and “inhibitors” to explain users’ intentions to utilize telehealth. We extended the Technology Acceptance Model and Status Quo Bias with the technology anxiety concept to explain why patients accept or reject the use of telehealth from the perceived enablers and inhibitors of intentions. The experimental results demonstrated users’ ambiguous and indecisive intentions of adopting telehealth. It was also found that availability and perceived usefulness are the main factors that encourage individuals to adopt telehealth services. Technology anxiety and transition costs are the key factors in discouraging people from using telehealth. Technology anxiety could be overcome through the perceived usefulness to promote the adoption of telehealth.     

抗震动力学课程网络教育平台探析

夯实动力学课程的理论水平与数值分析技能,是开展水工抗震领域相关研究的重要基础。然而,动力学概念与分析手段对于许多高年级本科生或硕士研究生来说,都显得过于复杂,难以在短时间内领悟,一定的怠学情绪存在于课堂教学中。本文拟从拓展教学手段的角度出发,尝试探讨网络平台教育的可行性,对该问题做一分析,在生动地拓展同学知识面的同时,激发学习热情,为实现教育教学资源的高水平立体化而服务。     

非视距环境下基于散射体信息的被动定位(英文)

为了提高传统的TOA/AOA定位技术在非视距环境下的定位精度,提出了一种基于散射体信息的混合定位方法.首先,利用基站坐标信息和TOA测量值确定线性化的可行区域,产生移动台的候选位置点.对每一个移动台候选点,结合TOA和AOA测量值,计算各自散射体半径,通过与先验的散射体信息的比较,筛选候选移动台位置点.然后,运用自适应模糊聚类算法估计移动台位置,完成定位.最后,对所提出的定位算法进行了仿真验证.仿真结果表明:所提出的基于散射体信息的混合TOA/AOA定位算法能够减轻非视距效应,有效估计移动台位置.     

冷战思维与双重标准——对美国三大日报关于邪教“法轮功”报道模式的意识形态化研究(1999-2005)

本文对美国三大主流报纸——《纽约时报》、《华盛顿邮报》、《洛杉矶时报》的100篇关于邪教“法轮功”的新闻报道进行了内容分析,发现美国新闻记者深受冷战思维和文化霸权的影响,在对“法轮功”的报道中采取双重标准,将“法轮功”与自由、民主和共产主义相提并论,以美化“法轮功”和抵制中国政府对邪教的合法取缔。     

DINA模型项目参数偏差对知识状态估计的影响

近年来关于DINA模型的相关研究显示,样本量、先验分布、经验贝叶斯或完全贝叶斯估计方法、样本的代表性、项目功能差异和Q阵误指等,均可能是导致DINA项目参数估计发生偏差的原因。使用Monte Carlo模拟试验,对DINA项目参数(猜测参数和失误参数)的组合变化类型和偏差量进行考察,通过条件极大似然估计法估计知识状态,发现项目参数估计值与真值偏差不大时,对知识状态估计的精度影响不大;但是项目参数偏离真值较大时,尤其是在三种组合类型上,对属性掌握存在明显的高估或低估现象。研究结果对于诊断测验等值有一定的启示:若两个测验上锚题的项目参数出现了较大的偏差(0.1),则需要考虑等值的必要性。     

The citation disadvantage of clinical research

Biomedical research encompasses diverse types of activities, from basic science (“bench”) to clinical medicine (“bedside”) to bench-to-bedside translational research. It, however, remains unclear whether different types of research receive citations at varying rates. Here we aim to answer this question by using a newly proposed paper-level indicator that quantifies the extent to which a paper is basic science or clinical medicine. Applying this measure to 5 million biomedical papers, we find a systematic citation disadvantage of clinical oriented papers; they tend to garner far fewer citations and are less likely to be hit works than papers oriented towards basic science. At the same time, clinical research has a higher variance in its citation. We also find that the citation difference between basic and clinical research decreases, yet still persists, if longer citation-window is used. Given the increasing adoption of short-term, citation-based bibliometric indicators in funding decisions, the under-cited effect of clinical research may provide disincentives for bio-researchers to venture into the translation of basic scientific discoveries into clinical applications, thus providing explanations of reasons behind the existence of the gap between basic and clinical research that is commented as “valley of death” and the commentary of “extinction” risk of translational researchers. Our work may provide insights to policy-makers on how to evaluate different types of biomedical research.     

强制履行与减损规则的冲突与协调

在违约制度中,我国合同法同时确立了强制实际履行与减损规则,这二者存在明显的冲突。从效率角度考虑,应优先适用减损规则,尤其是当守约人能够获得替代履行时。