经济平稳增长下中美波三国碳排放趋势的比较

由于碳排放趋势影响未来的气候变化趋势,也是各国进行减排谈判的基础,因此得到了公众和政府的普遍关注。本文运用碳排放动力学模型,预测了不同经济发展水平下中国、美国、波兰三国2009年-2050年的能源碳排放量,并对三国碳排放总量分别进行了情景分析。结果表明：①三国碳排放量都呈现先升后降的趋势,中、美、波分别在2035年,2022年,2032年达到碳排放高峰;②三国能源强度和碳排放强度都趋于下降,中国波兰两国下降速率较快,美国下降速率较慢;③未来能源结构中,中国和波兰的能源结构较相似,煤炭比例占绝对优势,其次为石油,天然气,非碳能源;美国的能源结构较为合理,石油占比最大,其次为煤,天然气和非碳;④中、关、波三国人均碳排放量差距较大,美国人均碳排放量在三国最高,但三国人均碳排放量最终都呈下降趋势;⑤在欧盟目标下,中,美,波三国碳排放总量降幅并不明显,而在哥本哈根会议背景下,中国完全能提前实现碳排放强度比2005年下降40％。45％这一目标。而基于2005年的碳排放水平,2050年中国要实现减排50％的难度非常大。美、波两国如不实施减排措施,其碳排放量将保持上升,实现目标的难度将更大。     

人均生活能源消费、收入和碳排放的面板数据分析

人均能源消费量是反映一个国家经济发展水平和人民生活质量的重要指标。作为终端能源消费,生活用能对总能源的消费结构、供求关系和节能减排具有重要影响。本文以中国30个省、市、自治区为研究单元,分城镇、农村两类消费群体,从面板格兰杰因果检验到面板模型的参数估计,分析人均生活用能、收入和生活能源碳排放之间的内在关联和变化趋势。结果表明,这三个变量之间存在长期均衡关系,在空间过程上显示出有规律的变化趋向。在东、中、西部三个地带之间和同一地带的城乡之间,变截距模型估计的能耗和碳排放的固定效应差异主要受居民人均收入的影响,低收入的西部地区能耗和碳排放的基数小,但对收入变动的反应敏感。南北方向的固定效应则主要反映了地理因素的影响,北方省区气候寒冷引起了较多的能源消费和碳排放。为应对气候变化,需要大力调整用能结构,在开发可再生的清洁能源时,实施全过程的环境影响评估和节能减排措施。     

中国碳排放增长机理分析

中国当前已经成为世界第一碳排放大国,准确认识碳排放增长的机理为挖掘碳减排路径提供科学依据。首先,本文将人口增长、经济增长、产业结构演进、能源结构演进四大碳排放影响因子分为放大因子、双向拉动因子以及缩小因子三类,并分析各因子自1953年-2006年的变化特征。其次,本文按照各因子的变化特征将1953年-2006年分解为:1953年-1977年、1978年-1992年、1993年-2006三个不同的研究时段,并采用相关分析法以及绘制散点图来研究不同时段各因子与碳排放增长的关系。研究发现:①在三个不同的研究时段里,人口增长、经济增长、产业结构演进一直拉动中国碳排放增长。能源结构变化在1953年-1977年以及1993年-2006年对抑制碳排放量的作用较小,在1978年-1992年能源结构变化增加碳排放量;②在过去几十年里,产业结构演进处于拉动碳排放增长的局面,在诸多碳排放影响因子中,产业结构的演进是碳排放增长的主导因子。最后,本文基于对中国人口增长、经济增长、产业结构演进以及能源结构演进的基本态势的分析,认为中国未来碳减排的主要潜力在于产业结构多元化发展以及经济增长带来的技术进步节能减排。     

城市居民交通出行碳交易体系研究——以北京市为例

基于北京市居民交通出行现状,立足可操作性思想设计城市居民交通出行碳交易体系。核定允许居民交通出行碳排放总量、建立居民交通碳账户、设定碳排放权分配和支付方式、构建碳交易市场并提出政策支撑和技术支持建议。最后分析碳交易体系对居民出行方式选择可能产生的影响。意义在于将交通出行碳排放外部性内部化,运用经济手段促进居民提升低碳的生活理念,缓解私家车出行比例大幅增长带来的交通拥堵和雾霾天气频发等严重问题。同时体现环境正义,规避摇号和限行政策难以保证居民购车和行车的公平、效率问题。     

基于区域碳平衡的土地利用结构调整——以河北省曲周县为例

土地利用,覆被变化对陆地生态系统碳汇有着直接的影响,土地利用结构调整是碳减排的最有效措施之一。本文基于耗能总量、土地利用现状数据和通过样点实验法所获取的相关系数,估算了曲周县碳源和碳汇量,并对区域碳平衡进行了定量分析。运用GIS叠加分析法对现状地类的碳汇适宜性进行了评价,将现状地类的碳汇适宜性分成单宜性、双宜性、多宜性和不宜四种。进而以碳平衡为目标,并考虑到社会经济和生态环境因素,进行土地利用结构调整。结果表明：2009年曲周县生态系统处于碳失衡;耕地、建设用地和其他土地是主要的调整地类,园地和林地是主要的调整方向;通过土地利用结构调整,可以使生态系统基本达到碳平衡。研究结果对于其他类似地区制定碳减排措施具有参考价值。     

Measuring creativity: A case study in the UK's Designer Fashion sector

Since before the 1997 General Election, New Labour has repeatedly emphasized the importance of the creative industries in underpinning the national economy and as an engine of economic growth. The Creative Industries Task Force Mapping Documents of 1998 and 2001 sought to define and quantify in broad terms economic activity across 13 distinct creative industries. More detailed estimates have been published by the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) in successive annual Creative Industries Economic Estimates.

An assessment is provided of the way in which the creative industries have been measured using the Office of National Statistics' Standard Industrial and Standard Occupational classifications (SIC and SOC). These classifications have themselves been revised since the early 1990s, and further revisions are in prospect from 2007. In this analysis particular focus is given to the ‘Designer Fashion’ sector, illustrated by a number of tables and data analyses.

These actual and proposed revisions have helped in documenting the rapidly emerging creative industries, which have reportedly grown at two to three times the rate of the UK economy as a whole. However, as the Regional Culture Data Framework published in 2002 records, serious problems remain in providing valid assessments of the creative industries sectors from ‘official’ published sources, even for the UK as a whole, let alone at the regional level emphasized by the Regional Culture Data Framework's regional sponsors. In any case, often the ‘scaling factors’ applied to official SIC codes to define creative industries appear arbitrary.

Many of the Regional Culture Data Framework's recommendations, notably the adoption of a more comprehensive ‘supply-chain’ approach to documenting the cultural sector, make further demands upon the existing official structural classifications and the data bases underpinning them. Even where all elements in the ‘supply chain’ are well documented, there are still questions about the validity of this approach. For example, should wholesale and retail distribution of creative industry products be regarded as part of the ‘Cultural Cycle’?

In conclusion, it is suggested that the ‘official’ data has marked limitations in documenting the creative industries and does not realistically or adequately capture the more interesting and dynamic elements of an industry like ‘Designer Fashion’. This is disappointing in a context where central government has placed increasing emphasis upon evidence-based policy to support the development of the creative industries, and where the British ‘Designer Fashion’ sector has lamented the lack of central support in comparison with the French or Italian industries. It is suggested that a more customized approach to collecting data about the creative industries is needed if the results are to usefully inform the further development and profile of these sectors.     

Biomechanical pole and leg characteristics during uphill diagonal roller skiing

Diagonal skiing as a major classical technique has hardly been investigated over the last two decades, although technique and racing velocities have developed substantially. The aims of the present study were to 1) analyse pole and leg kinetics and kinematics during submaximal uphill diagonal roller skiing and 2) identify biomechanical factors related to performance. Twelve elite skiers performed a time to exhaustion (performance) test on a treadmill. Joint kinematics and pole/plantar forces were recorded separately during diagonal roller skiing (9°; 11 km/h). Performance was correlated to cycle length (r = 0.77; P < 0.05), relative leg swing (r = 0.71), and gliding time (r = 0.74), hip flexion range of motion (ROM) during swing (r = 0.73) and knee extension ROM during gliding (r = 0.71). Push-off demonstrated performance correlations for impulse of leg force (r = 0.84), relative duration (r = ? 0.76) and knee flexion (r = 0.73) and extension ROM (r = 0.74). Relative time to peak pole force was associated with performance (r = 0.73). In summary, diagonal roller skiing performance was linked to 1) longer cycle length, 2) greater impulse of force during a shorter push-off with larger flexion/extension ROMs in leg joints, 3) longer leg swing, and 4) later peak pole force, demonstrating the major key characteristics to be emphasised in training.     

美国解决全球气候变化政策解析

介绍了美国目前限制和减少温室气体排放的方法和政策及其影响,并在分析温室气体排放和全球气候变化的科学数据的基础上,对现行政策进行评述并追踪美国在减少温室气体排放方面所做的努力及这些努力中潜在的可能具有的政策效力。     

环新疆经济圈视角下土库曼斯坦国际投资法律评析

基于“环新疆经济圈”这个全新的视角,本文从外国投资者及其投资企业的法律地位与法律待遇、投资形式与投资方式的确定、外资投向及特定行业、税收及其他优惠措施、征用国有化及其补偿原则、企业经营自主权的保障、解决投资争议的法定程序这几个方面,对土库曼斯坦的国际投资法律制度进行分析和评价．进而为投资主体对土投资提出建议。     

碳纤维电极测定水中对氯苯酚

在自制的碳纤维电极上,研究了碳纤维电极性能和对氯苯酚(p-CP)的电化学行为,考察了扫速、pH值以及浓度对p-CP在碳纤维电极上电化学行为的影响,实验结果表明p-CP在碳纤维电极上有灵敏的电化学响应,其电极氧化还原行为受吸附过程控制,p-CP在1 mol.L-1硫酸底液中,其氧化峰电流与对氯苯酚浓度在5×10-5～10-3mol.L-1范围内呈良好的线性关系(R2=9981),检出限为1×10-6mol.L-1,相对标准偏差为3.3%(n=10)。