中国商事合会法制化研究

合会是我国传统的一种民间资金融通方式,其形式多样、种类繁多,其中商事合会是一种由特定企业组织、经营的合会形式.从域外商事合会的发展经验看,商事合会具有风险低、规模大、降低会员时间成本等特点;商事合会在促进民间资本融通、为农村建设和中小企业发展提供资金支持等方面具有重要的作用,因此在金融政策逐步开放、金融环境不断宽松的今天,我国应当通过立法,构建商事合会法律制度,引导和规范商事合会的发展,从而在防范合会风险的同时,充分发挥合会的积极作用,促进社会经济的发展.     

论体育旅游的风险及风险管理

运用文献资料法、逻辑分析法以及案例研究法对体育旅游过程中存在的风险以及风险管理进行了研究,旨在为降低和控制体育旅游的风险,从而促进体育旅游活动的顺利进行。研究结果表明:经过风险识别,体育旅游的投资风险类型主要有自然因素风险、人为因素风险以及技术装备风险;并在评估的基础上,提出了具体的风险控制方法。     

An ecological analysis of infant neglect by adolescent mothers

To inform efforts to prevent child neglect, we investigated a wide range of risk factors that have been largely unexamined in relation to infant neglect, the most commonly occurring form of child maltreatment. Using an ecological model of child neglect, we assessed the influence of characteristics at the level of the child, the mother, the family, and broader childrearing contexts on adolescent mothers’ likelihood of being a perpetrator in a substantiated case of neglect against their firstborn infants (n = 383, M = 12 months). Several factors were associated with infant neglect by young mothers: median block income, low infant birth weight, maternal smoking, maternal childhood history of neglect and of positive care, intimate partner violence (IPV) perpetrated by either the mother or her partner, and maternal use of mental health services. In multivariate models, income, a maternal childhood history of positive care, IPV by either a mother or her partner, and mental health service usage made significant contributions to the odds that a mother neglected her infant. Our findings suggest that these factors have particular salience to policymakers’ and practitioners’ efforts to identify high risk families and to intervene during the earliest months of life to prevent child neglect.     

标准参照评估的行动实践 ——以香港中文大学通识教育基础课程为案例

香港特别行政区高校从2015年开始，学生学业评估陆续由常模参照评估转为标准参照评估。本文以香港中文大学通识教育基础课程实施标准参照评估的行动为案例，分析了这项新的学业评估方式在实施中所遇到的问题，讨论了解决方法并提出实施模型。该模型包含评分量表的设计与开发、量表使用、教师意见反馈与量表修改，以及评分之后的集体讨论这一套实施流程。文章最后指出，要保证标准参照评估的有效实施，需建立教师实践共同体。实践共同体的行动包括：教师共同开发评估标准，通过集体讨论对评估标准的含义和使用达成共识，共同审视评估结果，根据评估结果进一步修改和完善评估标准。     

An empirical review of anonymity effects in peer assessment,peer feedback,peer review,peer evaluation and peer grading

Abstract

Peer assessment has proven to have positive learning outcomes. Importantly, peer assessment is a social process and some claim that the use of anonymity might have advantages. However, the findings have not always been in the same direction. Our aims were: (a) to review the effects of using anonymity in peer assessment on performance, peer feedback content, peer grading accuracy, social effects and students’ perspective on peer assessment; and (b) to investigate the effects of four moderating variables (educational level, peer grading, assessment aids, direction of anonymity) in relation to anonymity. A literature search was conducted including five different terms related to peer assessment (e.g., peer feedback) and anonymity. Fourteen studies that used a control group or a within group design were found. The narrative review revealed that anonymous peer assessment seems to provide advantages for students’ perceptions about the learning value of peer assessment, delivering more critical peer feedback, increased self-perceived social effects, a slight tendency for more performance, especially in higher education and with less peer assessment aids. Some conclusions are that: (a) when implementing anonymity in peer assessment the instructional context and goals need to be considered, (b) existent empirical research is still limited, and (c) future research should employ stronger and more complex research designs.     

Risk terrain modeling predicts child maltreatment

As indicated by research on the long-term effects of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), maltreatment has far-reaching consequences for affected children. Effective prevention measures have been elusive, partly due to difficulty in identifying vulnerable children before they are harmed. This study employs Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM), an analysis of the cumulative effect of environmental factors thought to be conducive for child maltreatment, to create a highly accurate prediction model for future substantiated child maltreatment cases in the City of Fort Worth, Texas. The model is superior to commonly used hotspot predictions and more beneficial in aiding prevention efforts in a number of ways: 1) it identifies the highest risk areas for future instances of child maltreatment with improved precision and accuracy; 2) it aids the prioritization of risk-mitigating efforts by informing about the relative importance of the most significant contributing risk factors; 3) since predictions are modeled as a function of easily obtainable data, practitioners do not have to undergo the difficult process of obtaining official child maltreatment data to apply it; 4) the inclusion of a multitude of environmental risk factors creates a more robust model with higher predictive validity; and, 5) the model does not rely on a retrospective examination of past instances of child maltreatment, but adapts predictions to changing environmental conditions. The present study introduces and examines the predictive power of this new tool to aid prevention efforts seeking to improve the safety, health, and wellbeing of vulnerable children.     

不允许卖空的风险证券组合最优选择的区间方法

本文利用区间分析方法有效地解决了在不允许卖空的条件下一类证券组合最优选择问题。     

医药冷链物流在物联网环境下的动态风险评估

首先运用流程图法分析造成物联网环境下医药冷链物流各环节风险的众多因素源,并运用熵权法对风险指标客观赋权建立风险因素评估指标体系,然后利用Ge NIe软件建立动态贝叶斯网络模型对风险环节的关键风险因素进行概率评估。结果显示在风险评估中运输环节风险的发生概率最高,同时企业关于设备的验证选型是影响物联网医药冷链的关键风险因素,这为企业和政府控制药品质量安全管理提供了依据。     

创新开放度调节下的供应商信任、感知风险与企业科技服务购买意愿关系研究

以信任、感知风险和创新开放度理论为基础,构建影响中小企业科技服务购买意愿的概念框架并提出研究假设予以论证。以324家宁波中小企业为样本进行实证研究,结果表明：供应商信任(认知信任、情感信任)对企业科技服务购买意愿具有显著正向影响,而感知风险对企业科技服务购买意愿产生显著负向影响；供应商信任与科技服务感知风险之间具有显著负相关关系,且情感信任维度相关性更高；创新开放度对供应商情感信任、感知风险与企业科技服务购买意愿关系的调节作用显著。     

国防科技工业军民融合资源效率风险研究

效率可分为价值形态效率和非价值形态效率,研究军民融合效率必须从非价值角度或从投入品和产出品价格相对不变情况下的价值角度出发。对国防科技工业军民融合效率风险相关概念、根源等基本问题进行界定,从竞争与垄断、生产规模、分工、多元化等四个方面分析了军民融合资源效率风险的关系和发生机理。为了规避军民融合资源效率风险,需遵循军民融合发展规律,健全融合管理机制,净化军民市场环境。