城市地铁变形预测的三次指数平滑法

详细介绍了指数平滑法及三次指数平滑法的预测过程,应用此方法对实测资料进行了预计和比较.结果表明,其平均相对误差都小于1%.由此可见,该方法对城市地铁变形预测具有一定的应用价值.同时,文中指出了应用指数平滑法的一些优点及应注意的一些问题.     

A method for predicting critical load evaluating adhesion of coatings in scratch testing

In this paper based on the experiment principle of evaluating adhesion property by scratch testing, the peeling mechanism of thin films is discussed by applying contact theory and surface physics theory. A mathematical model predicting the critical load is proposed for calculating critical load as determined by scratch testing. The factors for correctly evaluating adhesion of coatings according to the experimental data are discussed.     

我国新能源汽车月度销售量预测模型研究

在新能源汽车可缓解未来一系列环境、资源问题的重要背景下,对新能源汽车销售量准确预测有助于加速新能源汽车市场推广,降低相关生产研发企业运营成本。提取8个关键影响因素,应用灰色关联分析（GRA）验证各因素影响能力,然后构建基于果蝇算法优化灰色神经网络（FOA-GNN）预测模型的新能源汽车月度销售量预测模型。通过预测结果对比检验,验证该预测模型在预测新能源汽车销售量上有较高的预测精度。应用该模型对我国新能源汽车2019年月度销售量进行预测,结果表明,我国新能源汽车发展在2019年度依然可保持良好的增长态势。     

中国共产党对生产力发展趋势和要求的实践把握

从不同历史时期中国共产党对生产力发展趋势和要求的实践把握中，阐明中国共产党必须切实解决好生产力的地位，发展生产力的依靠力量和现实途径这三大问题，即必须敏锐把握生产力发展的趋势和要求，才能始终代表中国先进生产力的发展要求。     

How Should Colleges Treat Multiple Admissions Test Scores?

The percentage of students retaking college admissions tests is rising. Researchers and college admissions offices currently use a variety of methods for summarizing these multiple scores. Testing organizations such as ACT and the College Board, interested in validity evidence like correlations with first‐year grade point average (FYGPA), often use the most recent test score available. In contrast, institutions report using a variety of composite scoring methods for applicants with multiple test records, including averaging and taking the maximum subtest score across test occasions (“superscoring”). We compare four scoring methods on two criteria. First, we compare correlations between scores and FYGPA by scoring method. We find them similar (). Second, we compare the extent to which test scores differentially predict FYGPA by scoring method and number of retakes. We find that retakes account for additional variance beyond standardized achievement and positively predict FYGPA across all scoring methods. Superscoring minimizes this differential prediction—although it may seem that superscoring should inflate scores across retakes, this inflation is “true” in that it accounts for the positive effects of retaking for predicting FYGPA. Future research should identity factors related to retesting and consider how they should be used in college admissions.     

复杂工程技术系统人员工作可靠性分析与预测

讨论了人员工作可靠性对复杂工程技术系统可靠性的影响,分析了人员工作失误形成的可能原因,详细介绍了基于逻辑图形分析的人员工作失误预测方法。文章指出:分析并解决人员工作可靠性评估与预测问题,既有助于设计并制造出更可靠的复杂工程技术系统,也有助于促进系统可靠性的近一步维持。     

Development of reasoning associated with pictographs: Representing, interpreting, and predicting

A developmental model involving four response levels is proposed concerning how students arrange pictures to represent data in a pictograph, how they interpret these pictographs, and how they make predictions based on these pictographs. The model is exemplified by responses from three related interview-based studies. In Study 1, examples of each response level are provided from 48 preparatory- to tenth-grade students. Students from higher grades were more likely to respond at higher levels. In Study 2, 22 students were interviewed longitudinally after a three-year interval; many improved in response level over time, although a few responded at lower levels. In Study 3, 20 third-grade students were interviewed and then prompted with conflicting responses of other students on video; many improved their initial responses to higher levels after exposure to the conflicting prompts. Associations among levels of representing, interpreting, and predicting were explored. Educational implications are discussed concerning reasonable expectations of students and suggestions to develop these skills in students at different grades. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

新时期高校思想政治工作体系的完善与创新

在全面建设小康社会的新时期，高校思想政治工作应继往开来、与时俱进，不断完善新的思想政治工作体系，包括观念体系、队伍体系、活动体系、理论体系、信息体系、保障体系等。     

改进灰色Verhulst模型在武汉市全年用电总量预测中的应用

影响城市年用电量的因素很多,获取这些影响因素的资料是十分困难的。为确保城市供电,合理安排供电部门的生产计划,须预测未来城市年用电量。本文提出对样本资料要求不高,又能反映城市年用电量逐年变化的灰色Verhulst模型,对武汉市年用电量进行预测,结果表明该方法是可行的。     

《林火预测预报》课程教学探讨——以内蒙古农业大学为例

随着高等教育体系的快速发展,《林火预测预报》课程教学也与时俱进,但目前仍然存在一些问题,文章针对“林火预测预报”课程教学中的不足展开深入的分析与探讨。以培养学生的专业综合素质为最终目的,针对现阶段的课程特点,分析当前已开展的课程内容、教学设计、教学手段以及上课方式等,指出了一些有待改进的地方,并提出相应的教学建议,希望通过这种方式提高教学质量和学生学习效果,以多种形式,从多个方面调整考评方式,完善相应的教学考核制度,以期提高学生的创新能力,并能更好地推动林火预测预报学科的发展。