基于系统动态学方法的弱信号生命周期建模与仿真

[目的/意义]为增强弱信号的内涵研究，对其全生命周期过程下的各阶段要素以及要素间的联系进行探寻，以期获得一定程度上的理论贡献，同时也为相关组织在开展弱信号管理实践时提供理论指导。[方法/过程]在对弱信号概念研究现状进行梳理的基础上，结合意义构建理论给出了弱信号概念界定。随后，通过与信息生命周期、新兴议题生命周期进行类比，提出弱信号生命周期理念。进而采用系统动态学方法开展系统思考，使用因果回路图进行系统建模，运用存量流量图进行仿真模拟。[结果/结论]弱信号生命周期包含4个阶段：侦测、关联、传递、抉择，相应的系统动态学模型所具备的现实性得到验证，且通过情景模拟确认了4个关键辅助变量：外界噪声干扰程度、弱信号分析效率、组织内相互信任程度、决策者信任程度。在整体研究的基础上，给出弱信号管理过程中可能会遇到的障碍以及应对策略。     

Between business and morality: cultural politics in independent bookshops in China

ABSTRACT

This article investigates how cultural businesses may facilitate contentious political activity in authoritarian contexts. Existing research in Western liberal democracies has shown the widespread political activism of actors in the cultural and creative industries. Whether such activism exists in authoritarian society, how it may differ in character and form, and what implications this will have for our understanding of relations between business, politics, and culture in authoritarian countries remain to be addressed. Drawing on data collected from 55 ‘independent bookshops’ in China, I illustrate how these organisations perform ‘cultural politics,’ a type of political participation in which actors employ mainly symbolic means to express social and political concerns. The organisations’ economic relations and conditions facilitate their efforts to create spaces in which contentious questions can be raised, sensitive topics explored, and alternative ideas expressed, despite the Chinese state’s political regulation of the cultural sphere. The finding of the economic embeddedness of cultural politics sheds new light on our understanding of the political economy of cultural businesses in contemporary China.     

对“训练周期”理论的重新审视

马特维耶夫的“训练周期”理论应属于训练的指导思想，而不是具体的训练方案。竞技状态和训练安排出现的周期性，是科学的规律，训练中必须遵循。但“训练周期”理论不能作为具体的训练安排，由于运动训练受许多因素的制约，其任何一种因素发生变化，必然导致整个训练过程实施周期发生改变。因此，必须依据训练的实际变化适时对训练周期进行适当的调节，同时，周期的划分和具体的训练方法应该依项目特点等情况来安排。     

保山城外来务工人员自主创业状况调查

随着改革开放的进一步推进,市场经济的进一步发展,保山城外来务工人员正以群体性的力量渗入保山的各个领域,尤其在自主创业的经营模式上走出了一条创新之路。现通过深入细致的调查,运用社会学、人力资源学、统计学等多种学科原理进行取证分析,并得出结果与评价,以期推进保山城市化研究,为攻克城市化进程中的就业问题提供学术支撑和实践指导。     

论商号与商标权利冲突的法律对策

商号与商标的权利冲突现象在实践中大量存在,既有经济利益驱动的内在原因,又有立法不完善的外在原因。为解决这一问题,应改变现有的分别立法的作法,将商号权的保护纳入到商标法的保护范畴之中,同时完善现有的商号登记程序,增加联合检索和公示异议程序,在立法中明确对侵权商号和商标的处理方式。     

Empire Redefined: Part 1

During the 17th and 18th centuries, the Dutch East India Company exerted monopolistic control over spices and coffee, with huge financial returns for those who invested in the company. Also during this time, a combination of business factors emerged to allow the early distribution of published works to gain hold and become a viable commercial enterprise. The early years of Dutch publishing are not well known but when examined they parallel the historical context in which geopolitical empires were the norm. The story of the start of a modern day publishing house is examined through the dual histories of two Dutch business ventures that thrived and failed during a turbulent time of colonial exploitation.     

Ott循环中温度的Lorentz变换

在介绍汤川秀树理想实验的基础上，指出其存在的不足，并对其进行修正，从而再次得到运动参考系中物体温度降低的P—E理论结论。     

民营企业融资与民间金融的发展

介绍国外民营企业的融资方式，分析我国现有的民营企业融资渠道及其制约因素，指出民间金融的发展是解决民营企业融资的最佳选择。     

商贸口译中的语用失误例析

本文以语用学的语用失误理论为指导，通过对商贸口译中存在的语用失误现象的研究，探讨了商贸口译中语用失误的表现形式及其成因，并说明了这些语用失误对口译交流可能造成的负面影响。     

情境教学在《秘书实务》课中的运用

情境教学利于培养大学生的创新意识与实践能力.在大学<秘书实务>课教学中,恰当设置教学情境,引导学生在情境中探究学习、"亲身"体验、多角度思考,可加深学生对知识的理解与把握,从而培养学生提出问题与解决问题的能力.