城市承办大型体育赛事生态风险评估体系的构建研究

大型体育赛事为城市发展创造良好的社会效益和经济效益的同时,也在一定程度上给城市生态环境带来了风险。运用文献资料法、专家调查法、层次分析等方法对城市承办大型体育赛事带来的生态风险类型、风险源、风险受体进行了分析,构建出一个由4个一级指标、14个二级指标、40个三级指标组成的生态风险评估体系。结果表明:城市承办大型体育赛事的生态风险类型主要分为生态失衡风险、生态空间占用风险、环境污染累积集中爆发风险、资源能源无序利用过度消耗风险;生态环境指标是诱发城市生态风险的首要因素,生态空间指标是诱发城市生态风险的次要因素,生物种群和能源资源指标是诱发城市生态风险的第三和第四个因素。结果显示在大型体育赛事承办过程中首先要加强对城市生态环境污染的防治;其次要做好城市建设规划,防止造成对城市生态空间和生态环境的剥夺与胁迫;再次,做好城市人口规划,合理控制外来人口规模;最后要提高城市居民环保意识,构建全民参与的生态环保社会行动体系。     

城市化风险分析

城市化是我国当前重要的社会现象.但城市化的研究主要是把它作为一种社会现象.其实,城市化还是一种经济现象,它有经济活动的基本特征.本文以经济学中的成本--效益为分析框架,讨论了城市化的风险问题,并提出了初步的解决方法.     

The Use of Risk Management to Support Preventive Conservation

ABSTRACT

Risk management approaches have been increasingly used at the British Library to inform and support collection care decisions. This paper addresses the ways in which these methods have been used to address specific preservation issues at the Library, using appropriate case studies: rehousing the microfilm collection, adapting pest management protocols, replacing box-making equipment and assessing the environmental conditions of the philatelic collection. As well as allowing complex, multi-faceted preservation problems to be addressed, this approach also allows options to be presented in a succinct and readily understandable manner to non-specialist colleagues and other stakeholders and helps to ensure buy-in.     

The Cost-effectiveness of Preventive Conservation Actions

ABSTRACT

Two historic house museums, a municipal art gallery, and a provincial archive have had comprehensive risk and option assessments done by the Canadian Conservation Institute. For each institution, an average of 60 options addressing 40 risks was analyzed in terms of risk reduction, cost, and cost-effectiveness. A meta-analysis found that cost-effectiveness follows a strong economy of scale within each institution. By estimating valuation of each collection, cost-effectiveness was converted into benefit–cost ratio of dollar spent per dollar value saved and was found not to follow an economy of scale between small and large institutions. Optimization software was applied to see if precise maximization of risk reduction gave significantly different recommendations than those in the original reports which relied on the Pareto rule of addressing the largest risks first.     

数字资源许可的法律风险提示及规避——ECUP《数字资源授权许可》文件解读

[目的/意义] 对欧洲版权用户平台发布的《数字资源授权许可》风险规避原则进行解读,以期对我国图书馆规避数字资源国际许可使用中的法律风险有所启示。[方法/过程] 分析《数字资源授权许可》原则中针对许可方垄断优势、法定例外、许可权利、合同用语不规范以及争议解决方式等做出的风险提示,以及其采取的一系列行之有效的防控措施,细化许可协议的书写规范,避免签署由数据库商独占权而产生的风险条款等,为图书馆合理规避法律陷阱提供参考依据。[结果/结论] 为规避数字资源许可协议的法律陷阱,我国应增强反垄断的维权意识、制定数字资源许可使用协议法律风险提示框架、适用中国法律由中国法院管辖。     

构建高校图书馆馆藏等级结构体系与量化模型的思考

确立高校馆藏发展等级及重点,细化整体馆藏中个体文献的相对收藏数量,是优化文献资源采选工作必须考虑的重要步骤。本文旨在思考以《中国图书馆分类法》中的基本类目为依据,从学科角度出发,建立一个广泛适用的,以利于对已有馆藏进行合理性评价及操作指导,并为文献资源采选提供量化依据的馆藏结构体系与量化模型,以期为高校图书馆的馆藏建设与发展提供参考。     

动量策略、动量崩溃及其风险管理——基于中国商品期货市场的实证研究

旨在研究中国商品期货市场动量策略的有效性,并且在判断动量崩溃的存在与动因之后提出能够管理动量崩溃风险的有效方法。在考虑交易费用的情况下,构建出的商品期货动量策略能够持续性获得显著的风险调整收益,进一步实证发现中国商品期货市场存在动量崩溃现象,其原因在于输家组合具有类期权性质从而使得时变β对市场组合波动更加敏感,进而主导了动量组合发生崩溃。为了进行动量崩溃的风险管理,提出构建基于目标条件停时的动态权重动量策略以管理动量崩溃风险,结果显示这一方法有效地规避了动量崩溃带来的极端风险,同时获得更高的动量收益和夏普比例。     

自甘风险条款在学校体育中的适用范围

运用文献资料法和逻辑分析法,分析《民法典》自甘风险条款在学校体育中的适用范围。认为,“自愿参加”并非必然要求参与者完全了解风险且自愿承担风险,“一定风险的文体活动”涵盖了学校体育竞赛、教学、训练、考试等,“其他参加者的行为”不代表自甘风险仅适用于需2人以上参与的同一体育活动,“故意或者重大过失的除外”中,对一般过失与重大过失的判定应结合项目规则与行为人的主观意图。学校与学生之间存在管理与被管理的特殊关系,学生参与学校体育带有一定的强制性,但也不能完全否定自甘风险的适用。具体来说,体育竞赛、课外体育活动、学生观看比赛以及不同项目间发生的伤害事故建议适用自甘风险,而体育教学、体育训练、体质测试、体育考试等活动发生的伤害事故应按实际情况有限适用自甘风险。     

The evolution of the operational earthquake forecasting community of practice: the L’Aquila communication crisis as a triggering event for organizational renewal

The scientific community of earthquake experts has long grappled with how to communicate earthquake probabilities successfully to non-scientific publics. Perhaps most central to their concern is the widely held belief that scientists can actually predict earthquakes when, in fact, they cannot. The potential consequences of this miscommunication problem were appallingly realized as a result of the 6 April 2009 earthquake in L’Aquila, Italy. Failed risk communication among scientists, a public official, and L’Aquila residents prior to the earthquake resulted in 309 deaths, 1500 injuries, and 65,000 people displaced from their homes, as well as the sentencing of six scientists and one public official to six years in prison for manslaughter. This paper examines how and why the L’Aquila Earthquake communication crisis ultimately redefined the international scientific earthquake community of practice and its discourse beyond that of community resilience to organizational learning and renewal.     

风险社会中的政府行为及其绩效评估

我们现已进入到了一个充满风险和不确定性的社会之中,传统的政府行为在风险社会中呈现出极大的不适应性、滞后性及反应的迟钝性等特征,政府发展范式的转变在所难免;相应地,传统政府绩效评估的理论和实践都已不适应时代发展的要求。因此,要有效规约政府行为、提升政府行为能力,合理地评估政府的绩效势在必然。