不完全信息视角下公私合作模式风险分担研究——基于参与主体的不同出价顺序

目前中国PPP模式进入了“规范发展新时代”,在生态环境保护、脱贫攻坚等民生短板等方面迎来了新机遇和挑战,然而PPP模式蕴含着复杂风险因素,如何进行有效的风险分担是保障PPP模式顺利实施的关键问题。本文基于讨价还价动态博弈理论,考虑PPP模式中政府部门、项目公司与银行三方博弈过程的不同的出价顺序,分别构建了政府与“弱势同盟”之间、同盟内部之间的风险再分担模型,得出了均衡状态下三方的风险分担比例,并运用德尔菲法专家调查法获取博弈方各自的威慑能力和受摄能力相关参数值对博弈模型进行了验证。研究表明,PPP模式风险分担博弈过程中先出价一方具有“先动优势”,考虑到谈判损耗因子参与方应尽量减少谈判时间和成本,另外,引入公众参与机制可以有效降低政府部门风险分担份额等。     

管理者从军经历与企业研发投入

自改革开放以来,我国进行了数次大规模的裁军活动,军人管理者已成为中国商界的重要力量。本文基于烙印和高阶理论,以2008-2016年沪深两市A股上市企业为研究对象,实证检验了管理者早期从军经历对企业研发投入的影响及其影响机制。通过面板模型回归,研究发现：第一,有从军经历管理者的企业具有较高的研发投入;第二,管理者从军经历对企业研发投入的影响在创始人从军经历管理者企业、无政治关联企业、非国有企业以及高竞争程度行业中更加显著;第三,管理者风险承担性在管理者从军经历与企业研发投入之间起到了部分中介作用。进一步研究表明,管理者从军经历不仅能够增加企业的研发投入,还能够提高企业的专利技术申请量。本文的研究丰富了管理者异质性领域的相关研究,打开了从军经历管理者对企业研发投入影响的“黑箱”,对上市企业尤其是创新型企业任用管理者提供了指导意义。     

Trust,reputation and ambiguous freedoms: financial institutions and subversive libertarians navigating blockchain,markets, and regulation

This article departs from the post 2008 financial crisis context, from its intersection with technological developments, and from the socio-technical arrangements configured by this conjuncture. It explores plans and actions – of mainstream financial institutions, and of a community seeking for alternatives to centralised economy and governance – for the use of digital platforms supported by blockchain infrastructure. In particular, it explores how such plans and actions relate to conceptions of public and peer trust and how they appear to produce, or reinforce, reputational imaginaries and quantification practices within added value philosophies. By illuminating a tension between the two identified case examples, I seek to render alternative communities’ and financial institutions’ conceptions, imaginaries and practices (more) visible and to analyse their organisational marketing strategies – where there is a pragmatic and discursive operationalisation of technology as well as of trust as means to gain more self-sovereignty in action, while navigating markets and regulated actual world contexts.     

Association of the Functional Movement Screen™ with match-injury burden in men’s community rugby union

Evidence supporting use of the Functional Movement Screen (FMS^TM) to identify athletes’ risk of injury is equivocal. Furthermore, few studies account for exposure to risk during analysis. This study investigated the association of FMS^TM performance with incidence and burden of match-injuries in adult community rugby players. 277 players performed the FMS^TM during pre-season and in-season time-loss injuries and match exposure were recorded. The associations between FMS^TM score, pain, and movement-pattern asymmetries with match-injury incidence (≥8-days time-loss/1000hours), severe match-injury incidence (>28-days time-loss/1000hours), and match-injury burden (total time-loss days/1000hours for ≥8-days match-injuries) were analysed using Poisson regression. Multivariate analysis indicated players with pain and movement-pattern asymmetry during pre-season had 2.9 times higher severe match-injury incidence (RR, 90%CI = 2.9, 0.9–9.7) and match-injury burden (RR, 90%CI = 2.9, 1.3–6.6). Players with a typically low FMS^TM score (mean – 1SD threshold) were estimated to have a 50% greater match-injury burden compared to players with a typically high FMS^TM score (mean + 1SD threshold) as match-injury burden was 10% lower per 1-unit increase in FMS^TM score. As the strongest association with injury outcome was found for players with pain and asymmetry, when implementing the FMS^TM it is advisable to prioritise these players for further assessment and subsequent treatment.     

运动员伤病风险的社会法规制:源起、规范与完善

运动员在训练和比赛过程中遭遇的伤病风险属职业风险范畴,虽属个人风险,但具有社会性,运动员伤病风险应纳入社会保险保障范围。肇因于运动员"伤与病"的纠缠,运动员伤病风险的社会法规制路径一直摇摆不定。随着运动员职业化改革的推进,运动员伤病风险与工伤保险的同构性以及与医疗保险的异质性共同昭示了运动员伤病风险的工伤保险保障路径。社会法规制效果的彰显需要通过运动员伤病风险保障的理念更新、规范创制和制度协调共同推进。     

Financial performativity as evidence of immanence: the phenomenology of liquidity crisis in contemporary markets for risk

The sociologist Bruno Latour has often expressed aversion to immanent critique, framing actor-network theory in terms of focus on visible phenomena. In spite of this, research on financial performativity inspired by Latour’s perspective can still be interpreted in terms of immanent critique and related to Political Economy (a critical discipline), through Kant’s critique of metaphysics as a ‘regulative axiom’. Research on financial performativity has uncovered evidence of the existence of constructive processes that show how an idea (like a financial model) can become something like an ‘object’. This ‘objectivity’ appears to contradict Kant’s critique of metaphysics – that there always remains a gap between our ideas and the world itself. This paper therefore explores financial performativity as a ‘contradiction’, historicizing it to argue that ‘Barnesian performativity’ and ‘financial liquidity’ are ‘immanent’ to one another in the events of recent financial crises. The paper conducts this interpretation to provide a new conceptualization of ‘financial liquidity’ that is more empirically apparent, helping to overcome some of the limits in the discussion of ‘liquidity’ in Political Economy (that Latour might want to highlight), where discussion occurs in metaphysical terms difficult to connect to actual events.     

基于三角模糊数AHP的厦门港引航风险评价

为对厦门港引航风险进行更有效的识别和评价,建立厦门港引航风险评价指标体系。采用德尔菲法确定各指标相对于评价等级的隶属度,根据三角模糊数的几何特征计算各指标的模糊权重,建立厦门港引航风险综合评价模型。通过实例验证该方法的可行性和有效性,初步解决现有风险评价方法中存在的单值评价导致结果偏差较大的问题,为厦门港引航风险分析与评价提供一种更科学合理的方法。     

内河观光船撞桥风险评估及应用

为提高内河观光船航行安全性,降低撞桥灾难性事故发生的风险水平,基于AASHTO模型进行船撞桥概率预报,分析撞击力对船首结构安全和船舶大倾角稳性的影响,提出船撞桥风险评估方法.应用该方法对某内河观光船撞桥风险进行评估,并讨论船速和桥墩防撞装置变形系数对船首结构安全和船舶大倾角稳性的影响.结果表明:船舶通过桥区水域时,若适当降低航速,可避免由撞桥导致的船舶倾覆事故的发生;增设弹性或柔性防撞装置,增加防撞装置变形系数,可减少船舶结构损坏程度,避免船舶倾覆.评估方法合理,结论可供内河观光船安全航行参考.     

质量风险控制和促销宣传下跨境电商供应链的决策与协调

为控制跨境供应链中境外供应商的商品质量风险并解决境内零售商对产品促销宣传力度不足的问题,构建受商品零售价格和供应链成员努力程度(商品质量风险控制程度、促销宣传水平)影响的消费者需求函数,给出上游供应商和下游零售商的利润函数。采用Stackelberg博弈方法对集中决策和分散决策下的均衡解进行比较,再通过Nash谈判模型得到供应链的协调策略,使得供应链利润达到最优。通过算例分析验证方法的有效性。     

美国职业运动伤害保障制度

职业运动具有的对抗性或身体接触性,使职业运动员在身体健康等方面会面临较大的风险,运动员一旦受伤必将影响到本人及球队的经济利益,为此在职业运动较为发达的美国各球队和运动员往往通过建立事前预防规避机制以最大限度地避免风险的发生,同时通过社会保险、联盟自行建立的退休金保障制度、商业保险市场提供的运动员专属保险等保险制度使得运动员伤害失能给其球队和自身造成的损失能降到最低点。