远程开放教育成本与效益分析

远程开放教育运用广播电视和计算机网络多媒体技术,使受教育者的数量无限,与国家的“科教兴国”、“全面学习,终身学习”的教育战略相符。但是新技术投资的成本高,其效益的估算难,且如何减少成本,提高效益是有待研讨的课题,需要认真进行分析。一、远程开放教育成本核算的重要意     

如何认识和控制我国当前的财政债务规模

我国财政债务规模包括中央财政规模和隐性、或有债务规模。为此,只有全面认识财政债务的实际规模,并分析其不断扩大的原因,才能在实践中采取有效措施,控制和缩减当前的财政债务规模。     

西部大开发战略的经济学思考

西部大开发战略的提出标志着我国经济发展战略的重大转变,也是实现经济均衡发展的重要举措,如何实现西部经济快速起飞,关键在于实现三个转变：经济发展战略从“梯度推移论”到西部跳跃发展;经济发展环境从偏向沿海地区向西部地区转移;经济发展重点从城市偏向改革到注重农村市场开拓。     

The analysis and forecasting of male cycling time trial records established within England and Wales

The format of cycling time trials in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, involves riders competing individually over several fixed race distances of 10–100 miles in length and using time constrained formats of 12 and 24 h in duration. Drawing on data provided by the national governing body that covers the regions of England and Wales, an analysis of six male competition record progressions was undertaken to illustrate its progression. Future forecasts are then projected through use of the Singular Spectrum Analysis technique. This method has not been applied to sport-based time series data before. All six records have seen a progressive improvement and are non-linear in nature. Five records saw their highest level of record change during the 1950–1969 period. Whilst new record frequency generally has reduced since this period, the magnitude of performance improvement has generally increased. The Singular Spectrum Analysis technique successfully provided forecasted projections in the short to medium term with a high level of fit to the time series data.     

A coach’s political use of video-based feedback: a case study in elite-level academy soccer

This paper examines the video-based pedagogical practices of Terry (pseudonym), a head coach of a professional junior academy squad. Data were collected through 6 in-depth, semi-structured interviews and 10 field observations of Terry’s video-based coaching in situ. Three embracing categories were generated from the data. These demonstrated that Terry’s video-based coaching was far from apolitical. Rather, Terry strategically used performance analysis technologies to help fulfil various objectives and outcomes that he understood to be expected of him within the club environment. Kelchtermans’ micropolitical perspective, Callero’s work addressing role and Groom et al.’s grounded theory were primarily utilised to make sense of Terry’s perceptions and actions. The findings point to the value of developing contextually grounded understandings of coaches’ uses of video-based performance analysis technology. Doing so could better prepare coaches for this aspect of their coaching practice.     

The effect of limb dominance on lower limb functional performance – a systematic review

Lower limb dominance (or lateral preference) could potentially effect functional performance. Clinicians are often asked to make judgements as to when a patient has sufficiently “recovered” from an injury, typically using strength and dynamic performance outcome measures. The primary purpose of this study was to systematically review the literature in relation to limb dominance within active adult populations and discuss some limitations to current methods and relate this to current clinical practice. A search of MEDLINE and CINAHL and EMBASE databases and reference lists of those articles identified was performed. Eleven articles were selected for meta-analysis. There was no statistical effect of limb dominance for any of the functional tests: isokinetic quadriceps and hamstring tests, hamstring:quadriceps ratios, single-leg hop for distance, single-leg vertical jump and vertical ground reaction force following a single-leg vertical jump. Pooled symmetry values varied from 94.6% to 99.6% across the tests, above the clinically accepted benchmark of 90% used in clinical practice. Although the results of this study must be used with discretion, asymmetries in the tasks described in this analysis should be viewed as undesirable and remedied accordingly. Further research is needed to quantify asymmetries, particularly in relation to sport-specific contexts.     

Discriminating talent-identified junior Australian football players using a video decision-making task

This study examined if a video decision-making task could discriminate talent-identified junior Australian football players from their non-talent-identified counterparts. Participants were recruited from the 2013 under 18 (U18) West Australian Football League competition and classified into two groups: talent-identified (State U18 Academy representatives; n = 25; 17.8 ± 0.5 years) and non-talent-identified (non-State U18 Academy selection; n = 25; 17.3 ± 0.6 years). Participants completed a video decision-making task consisting of 26 clips sourced from the Australian Football League game-day footage, recording responses on a sheet provided. A score of “1” was given for correct and “0” for incorrect responses, with the participants total score used as the criterion value. One-way analysis of variance tested the main effect of “status” on the task criterion, whilst a bootstrapped receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve assessed the discriminant ability of the task. An area under the curve (AUC) of 1 (100%) represented perfect discrimination. Between-group differences were evident (P < 0.05) and the ROC curve was maximised with a score of 15.5/26 (60%) (AUC = 89.0%), correctly classifying 92% and 76% of the talent-identified and non-talent-identified participants, respectively. Future research should investigate the mechanisms leading to the superior decision-making observed in the talent-identified group.     

Explaining match outcome in elite Australian Rules football using team performance indicators

The relationships between team performance indicators and match outcome have been examined in many team sports, however are limited in Australian Rules football. Using data from the 2013 and 2014 Australian Football League (AFL) regular seasons, this study assessed the ability of commonly reported discrete team performance indicators presented in their relative form (standardised against their opposition for a given match) to explain match outcome (Win/Loss). Logistic regression and decision tree (chi-squared automatic interaction detection (CHAID)) analyses both revealed relative differences between opposing teams for “kicks” and “goal conversion” as the most influential in explaining match outcome, with two models achieving 88.3% and 89.8% classification accuracies, respectively. Models incorporating a smaller performance indicator set displayed a slightly reduced ability to explain match outcome (81.0% and 81.5% for logistic regression and CHAID, respectively). However, both were fit to 2014 data with reduced error in comparison to the full models. Despite performance similarities across the two analysis approaches, the CHAID model revealed multiple winning performance indicator profiles, thereby increasing its comparative feasibility for use in the field. Coaches and analysts may find these results useful in informing strategy and game plan development in Australian Rules football, with the development of team-specific models recommended in future.     

The expected value of possession in professional rugby league match-play

This study estimated the expected point value for starting possessions in different field locations during rugby league match-play and calculated the mean expected points for each subsequent play during the possession. It also examined the origin of tries scored according to the method of gaining possession. Play-by-play data were taken from all 768 regular-season National Rugby League (NRL) matches during 2010–2013. A probabilistic model estimated the expected point outcome based on the net difference in points scored by a team in possession in a given situation. An iterative method was used to approximate the value of each situation based on actual scoring outcomes. Possessions commencing close to the opposition’s goal-line had the highest expected point equity, which decreased as the location of the possession moved towards the team’s own goal-line. Possessions following an opposition error, penalty or goal-line dropout had the highest likelihood of a try being scored on the set subsequent to their occurrence. In contrast, possessions that follow an opposition completed set or a restart were least likely to result in a try. The expected point values framework from our model has applications for informing playing strategy and assessing individual and team performance in professional rugby league.     

Differences in pedalling technique between road cyclists of different competitive levels

The purpose of this study was to compare the pedalling technique in road cyclists of different competitive levels. Eleven professional, thirteen elite and fourteen club cyclists were assessed at the beginning of their competition season. Cyclists’ anthropometric characteristics and bike measurements were recorded. Three sets of pedalling (200, 250 and 300 W) on a cycle ergometer that simulated their habitual cycling posture were performed at a constant cadence (~90 rpm), while kinetic and kinematic variables were registered. The results showed no differences on the main anthropometric variables and bike measurements. Professional cyclists obtained higher positive impulse proportion (1.5–3.3% and P < 0.05), mainly due to a lower resistive torque during the upstroke (15.4–28.7% and P < 0.05). They also showed a higher ankle range of movement (ROM, 1.1–4.0° and P < 0.05). Significant correlations (P < 0.05) were found between the cyclists’ body mass and the kinetic variables of pedalling: positive impulse proportion (r = ?0.59 to ?0.61), minimum (r = ?0.59 to ?0.63) and maximum torques (r = 0.35–0.47). In conclusion, professional cyclists had better pedalling technique than elite and club cyclists, because they opted for enhancing pulling force at the recovery phase to sustain the same power output. This technique depended on cycling experience and level of expertise.