论凯恩斯和他的内需理论

社会实践是检验真理的唯一标准。诚然 ,真理的认同是社会实践的依据。在世界经济发展史上 ,西方著名的经济学家数以百计。然而 ,凯恩斯“通论”中的内需理论一直是当今世界经济学家们研究宏观经济理论的重要组成部分 ,也是企业改革 ,发展市场经济 ,扩大就业的强大动力     

End of journey,end of story? A longitudinal study of involuntary work transitions among laid-off workers

The purpose of this study is to increase knowledge regarding involuntary work transitions among laid-off workers. It is part of an ongoing cooperation with two outplacement agencies enrolling white-collar workers. The particular arrangements, which are based on collective agreements, include relatively generous support, both economically and regarding the educational and counselling arrangements offered. A narrative research approach is used and the analysis is based on interviews with 15 people, conducted on two occasions with about a year in between. Conceptualizing the transition as a biographical learning process, the findings point out a great variety within and between cases. While the basic distinction is drawn between people who have changed their status and those who have not, a number of rhetorical varieties are identified, pointing to different modes of biographical learning. The originality of the paper lies in its narrative approach and the particular conceptual framework showing that biographical learning is a vital part of enforced work transitions.     

危机中的零失业发展模式初探——以六盘水市老鹰山镇为个案

美国次贷危机引发的全球经济危机,对我国产生了深远影响,更对西部地区就业与经济发展提出了严峻挑战。然而辩证地看,危机中蕴含着机遇,一旦抓住机遇并创新性实践可实现新的跨越。仅以老鹰山镇为个案,探究区域如何在危机中以零失业发展模式实现＂保民生、促增长＂,拟为其它区域在抗击自然、经济、社会等灾害方面提供决策参考。     

技术进步对就业的影响分析

技术进步虽然会在一些部门和行业引起失业,导致就业量的下降,但在另一方面也给人类的社会经济活动开辟了更广阔的空间,提供更大的活动范围,因而能够创造出大量的新的就业岗位.从总体上看,技术进步并不必然导致失业率的上升.     

基于回归分析的失业预警建模实证研究

指出失业预警系统的建模是一个小样本、高维度、非线性、存在噪音数据的复杂的建模问题,重点探讨了基于回归分析技术对失业预警系统进行建模的理论、方法与步骤。讨论了常见的缺失数据处理、数据归一化以及特征降维等数据预处理方法;进一步分析了最小二乘回归、Logistic回归、岭回归、BP神经网络以及支持向量回归五种回归技术;最后基于广东省的社会经济调查数据对五种回归方法进行了实证分析,实验结果表明:在对失业率的预测上,支持向量回归预测效果最好,最小二乘回归、岭回归与BP神经网络次之,Logistic回归预测效果最差。     

关于失业调查及保障问题的思考——以丹东市为例

失业是造成贫困的最主要原因。通过对丹东市第三次离岗失业人员家庭状况入户调查进行分析。提出提高失业统计调查数据质量应从调查组织、调查内容、调查项目、调查周期、调查方式方法、调查数据质量控制等方面做起。解决因失业造成贫困的问题：一是要科学制定低保标准的方法;二是要建立合理的调整机制;三是要有促进积极就业的脱贫方法;四是要研究民政、社保、医疗、教育、劳动各部门联动与沟通方式方法等。     

Stringtern: springboarding or stringing along young interns’ careers?

Young people are repeatedly promised that internships will pave the way to the career of their dreams by providing the ‘hands-on experience’ necessary to differentiate themselves in a fierce job market. However, in many industries, internships – and increasingly unpaid internships – have become the obligatory norm. Young people quickly learn that the internship is not an opportunity, but rather a ‘necessary evil’ that, for many, strings them along in the hope that it may lead to a less precarious paid opportunity. In this article, our findings are based on 12 in-depth interviews with young female interns in the creative industries based in Toronto and New York City. Our participants recognise that in the current economic climate, they need to ‘pay their dues’; however, they often enter into a system of sequential – or string – internships, and become, what we label, a stringtern. In an evolving internship market in North America, we develop a typology of internships including (1) paid/underpaid/unpaid, (2) academic credit/not-for-credit, (3) for-profit/non-profit, (4) full-time/part-time and (5) on-site/off-site to develop a common language to critically analyse the culture of internships. By valuing young people’s perspectives as gleaned from our interviews, the typology aims to provide a more nuanced way to approach the complexity of unpaid internships and the transition from education to the workforce. Furthermore, three interrelated implications of the culture of internships are identified: internship as a free trial, internship as conveyor-belt labour and internship as displacing paid employment.     

Unemployment,the Great Recession,and apprenticeship attrition in the U.S.

The author estimates the impacts of the local rate of unemployment and the Great Recession on the quit and graduation rates of the U.S. construction trade apprentices over the 2001–2014 period. Trade union participation in training sponsorship had a strong influence on attrition rates. The impacts of the business cycle and the Great Recession on the attrition rate also varied across sponsor types. During downturns, apprenticeship duration of the quitters in union-employer jointly sponsored programmes was longer, suggesting that the trainees were able to stay with the programme as jobs become scarcer. However, during the Great Recession the quit hazard among these trainees increased, which indicates declining long-term career prospects. In contrast, apprentices in unilateral multiple-employer programmes dropped out at faster rates during the downturns, except during the Great Recession. The increase in the staying power of the quitters in employer-only programmes during the Great Recession is a puzzle. The eventual probability of cancellation was lower among the union-employer joint programmes than in the employer-only programmes, although the difference narrowed down during the Great Recession.     

失业人员归因心理分析--以苏南地区为例

本研究采用问卷法、访谈法对苏州市、全坛市等地706名失业(下岗)人员进行了调查和访谈,并运用系统聚类等统计方法对所采集的数据进行处理和分析,在此基础上对失业(下岗)人员的归因心理进行了讨论和解释。     

我国社会保障制度改革与消费结构的优化

针对我国消费结构的变化趋势、社会保障制度不完善导致的居民消费中存在的主要问题,提出完善我国社会保障制度对于引导消费投向、建立合理的消费结构进而对社会的和谐发展都有积极的作用,主要表现在消费经济的活跃、消费面的扩大、消费层次的提升和消费方向的引导等方面。