Statistics,truth, and error reduction in sport and exercise sciences

Abstract

Academics have a responsibility to ensure that their research findings are as truthful as possible. InIn every issue of a scientific journal, a large number of significance tests are reported (usually using P <0.05). Of course, most of these results will be true/correct. Unfortunately, due to the nature of sampling, researchers will occasionally make errors, often referred to as type I (probability = α) and type II (probability = β) errors. The power of a test (1-β) is the probability of correctly rejecting a false null hypothesis – that is, correctly detecting a real or true effect. Factors that are known to influence power include: (1) the level of significance (α), (2) the size of the difference or relationship in the population (the effect), (3) the sample size, and (4) unexplained error variance. As researchers, we have little control over most of these factors. The one factor that we have some influence over, however, is the ability to reduce the unexplained error variance. In the present article, we describe a range of methods that will increase the probability that a researcher has correctly identified a real effect by increasing the power of their statistical tests. Such methods will include ways of designing experiments to reduce error and uncertainty. The use of blocking and randomized block designs will reduce unexplained error, such as adopting matched or repeated-measures designs rather than using independent observations. The other method of reducing unexplained errors is to adopt more appropriate (e.g. biologically correct) models and checking the distribution assumptions associated with such models. In conclusion, researchers are responsible for maximizing the likelihood that their results are as accurate and truthful as possible. By carefully planning their experiments and adopting appropriate models, researchers are more likely to publish their findings with a greater degree of confidence, but not certainty.     

战争与疯狂:美国二战小说中“疯狂”策略运用

第二次世界大战是美国战后小说重要主题之一。小说作者从狂欢理论、人格理论、偏执妄想狂病理特征、异化等角度多样性地描述"疯狂"的形象和本质,表述了理想主义者反对战争、反对权力和人格异化、追求人性的愿望,以及试图改造现实和理想破灭带来的绝望。精神疾病已超越病理学、美学和道德范畴,进入政治和种族领域,被符号化、功能化、政治化,成为政治斗争最顺手的修辞学工具。小说中疯狂成为隐喻意象,表现为嗜血狂、双重人格、偏执妄想狂以及人格异化,各种疯狂形态都隐含着尼采的非理性哲学精神。     

聚乙烯吡咯烷酮-盐液-固体系分离Cu(Ⅱ)、Pb(Ⅱ)、Cd(Ⅱ)、Cr(Ⅱ)

在一定浓度硫酸铵存在的条件下,聚乙烯吡咯烷酮(PVP)水溶液能形成盐水相与聚合物固相。实验研究了Cu(Ⅱ)、Pb(Ⅱ)、Cd(Ⅱ)、Cr(Ⅱ)与邻苯二酚紫(PV)形成的配合物在聚乙烯吡咯烷酮盐水萃取体系液固两相中的分配行为。探讨萃取酸度、硫酸铵浓度和萃取剂用量等条件对金属离子萃取率的影响,通过控制一定的条件实现Cr(Ⅱ)与Cu(Ⅱ)的定量萃取分离。     

启蒙的艺术——波兰王奥古斯都二世收藏的中国外销瓷研究

17-18世纪的启蒙运动时代,大批欧洲商人、传教士赴华经商和访问,启蒙艺术的思潮也随之涌入中国,对清代初期的绘画及工艺美术产生了重要的影响,尤其是为中国瓷器提供了全新的创作视角与表现方式。本文以这一时期最为著名的东方艺术收藏家"奥古斯都二世"为切入点,通过第一手资料和文献佐证,对奥古斯都二世收藏的福建德化外销瓷展开研究,并将其置入当时的中西方语境中进行考量,既考察西方启蒙艺术思想如何影响中国古陶瓷艺术,同时也反观中国传统文化与西方启蒙运动的相互关系。     

试论中日教科书里的日本二战小说——从文学批评的历史把握谈起

中日两国教科书里的日本二战小说在历史认识上所存在的偏差和作为教材所起到的负面作用值得注意。在日本，它们对青年一代二战史观的形成起着潜移默化的作用；在中国别导致对日本二战小说的误读，影响了从历史层面对日本侵华战争的总体把握。     

双呋喃甲醛Schiff碱金属铜(Ⅱ)配合物为载体的高选择性硫氰酸根离子电极

报道了二醋酸双(呋喃甲醛)缩邻苯二胺铜(Ⅱ)为载体的PVC膜电极.该电极对硫氰酸根离子(SCN-)具有高的电位选择性和灵敏度,并呈现反Hofmeister选择性行为.采用交流阻抗技术和紫外可见光谱技术初步研究了电极的响应机理,结果表明配合物中心金属原子的结构以及载体本身的结构与电极的响应行为之间有非常密切的构效关系.将制得的电极初步应用于实际废水样品分析,结果与HPLC法一致.     

无机化学实验研究二则

将钴(Ⅱ)氨配合物的生成置于液体石蜡封闭的除氧溶液中进行，可以得到黄色的[Co(NH3)6]Cl2配合物，避免了把[Co(NH3)6]Cl2、Co(NH3)6]Cl3二混合溶液的颜色当作单纯[Co(NH3)6]Cl2的颜色的错误，表明了钴(Ⅱ、Ⅲ)氨配合物的生成、结构和性质的关系。CuCl2和过量的铜屑在浓盐酸介质中加热约1—2分钟全部生成H[CuCl2]的无色溶液，将其直接倾入蒸馏水中便可得到大量CuCl的白色沉淀；再在用液体石蜡隔绝空气的CuCl固体中分别加入浓氨水和浓盐酸，即很容易生成H[CuCl2]、[Cu(NH3)2]Cl的无色配合物。操作方法简单，现象明显，结果与理论一致。     

从凡尔赛-华盛顿体系的内在矛盾看二战起源

第二次世界大战爆发的一个突出特点是它离第一次世界大战的结束只有20年,它的爆发与一战结局必然有着深刻联系,而一战的结局则直接体现为凡尔赛-华盛顿体系,因此,谈二战起源就不能不从凡尔赛-华盛顿体系说起。凡尔赛-华盛顿体系的内在矛盾是新的大战爆发之根本原因。     

双苯甲酰丙酮缩乙二胺合镍(II)配合物的合成和晶体结构

合成了双苯甲酰丙酮缩乙二胺Schiff碱镍(II)配合物,并测定了该分子晶体结构。晶体属单斜晶系,空间群为P21/n,晶胞参数:a=10.793(2),b=7.909(2),c=22.025(4)A°,β=96.68(3)°,V=1867.4(7)A°3,Z=4,Dc=1.441g·cm-3。对于3494(I2σ(I))个可观察点,最终偏差因子R=0.0281,WR=0.0768。Schiff碱配体的四个配位原子犤O(1)、O(2)、N(1)和N(2)犦与Ni(II)配位,形成平面正方形NONi配位构型。