国际恐怖主义的本地化

阿富汗战争后。国际恐怖主义组织在国际合力反恐的形势下,采取了“化整为零”的本地化策略。主要表现在：在意识形态上．国际恐怖主义组织和地方性恐怖主义组织以宗教极端主义为纽带．加速力量整合;在组织结构上．呈现网球化与分散化的形态;而在资金来源上。实行全球性配置与本地化募集的方式。     

简论圣茹斯特后期同罗伯斯比尔的分歧

圣茹斯特是法国大革命中涌现出来的年青的政治家 ,为雅各宾专政的建立和巩固做了大量的工作 ,史学界一般把他同罗伯斯比尔相提并论 ,普遍认为他同罗伯斯比尔在政治上是一致的。事实上在镇压了丹东派和埃贝尔派以后 ,他同罗伯斯比尔之间就出现了裂痕 ,其焦点是缩小还是继续扩大恐怖政策。为此他极力调和反对派同罗伯斯比尔之间的矛盾 ,主张“客观”、“宽容”、“理智”和“以法治国”。虽然他“拯救革命”的计划没有实现 ,但他的这些做法 ,正说明他的政治思想比罗伯斯比尔理智和清醒 ,符合法国大革命发展的方向。     

2004年国际安全形势综述

2004年,国际恐怖主义依然猖獗,全球一些热点地区的危机继续升温,美国深陷伊拉克的战后乱局,俄罗斯大幅度改革国家权力机构,欧盟接纳了10个新成员并通过《欧盟宪法条约》,日本出台新防卫计划大纲,印度继续向军事大国迈进。     

How do practitioners in early years provision promote Fundamental British Values?

In 2015, the United Kingdom government harnessed Early Childhood Education and Care (ECEC) providers to its anti-terrorism strategy by placing them within the scope of the Counter Terrorism and Security Act 2015. They became subject to the ‘Prevent Duty’ which requires them to have due regard to prevent people from being drawn into terrorism. However, the promotion of Fundamental British Values (FBV), as a specific measure to prevent young children being drawn into terrorism, has raised questions about the role of the ECEC sector as an instrument of counter terrorism policy. This paper analyses the ways in which early childhood practitioners mediated the requirement to promote FBV through their pedagogical practice. Although practitioners are commissioned to mediate specific values formulated in the political arena their response was complex and multi-layered. Whilst a public display of compliance to FBV was performative values education was an everyday pedagogical practice unconstrained by the instituted definitions of FBV. Practitioners deployed a contextual moral pedagogy where children construct understandings of moral values and practices characterised by rich democratic dialogues.     

基于GM(1,1)模型的恐怖活动发展趋势预测 ——以东南亚和撒哈拉以南非洲地区为例

[目的/意义]旨在为地区反恐工作提供参考.[方法/过程]以全球恐怖主义数据库(GTD)为基础,对2015—2019年全球恐怖主义发展趋势进行分析,并运用GM(1,1)模型对东南亚和撒哈拉以南非洲地区未来几年的恐怖活动态势进行预测分析.[结果/结论]反恐工作效果显著,预测未来几年东南亚和撒哈拉以南非洲地区的恐怖活动次数将...     

Does Private Schooling Affect National Stability?

I employ a year and country-level fixed-effects analytical technique to examine how private schooling could impact national stability using five different measures. I examine 177 different countries across the globe from 1999 to 2014. Most importantly, this technique allows me to conduct a quasi-experimental analysis by controlling for otherwise unobservable and relatively time-invariant characteristics of nation-states such as culture, language, religiosity, and racial diversity. I do not find that contemporaneous changes in private schooling influence perceived control of corruption, stability, or rule of law within a nation-state. Moreover, I do not find any evidence indicating that private schooling fluctuations influence actual terrorist activity or the likelihood of a coup d’état within a country. However, I find evidence indicating that private schooling improves perceived control of corruption and rule of law when students become adults.     

基于雅卡尔系数的反恐情报聚类分析

[目的/意义]聚类分析是数据挖掘的常用方法之一,使用聚类簇内数据相似性大、簇间数据相似性小的特点,可以实现对海量基础涉恐数据快速、准确、有效的分组。[方法/过程]本文研究如何利用基于雅卡尔系数的聚类方法对涉恐情报进行分析。在聚类之前要删减与涉恐相关性小的属性并将所有连续属性进行离散化处理。通过不断迭代计算样本数据集的雅卡尔系数并更新不同簇中的元素,直到达到设定的终止条件为止实现涉恐情报的聚类。[结果/结论]文中的方法可以实现对涉恐基础数据的初步分级分类,同时通过有经验的情报分析员定级以及与数据挖掘分类方法结合使用,可以有效提高情报分析的效率,为反恐预警提供量化的参考依据。     

基于子图模式的反恐情报关联图集分析

[目的/意义]利用子图模式对暴恐案件中的人员关联进行分析可以发现涉恐人员关联图中的规律,为反恐情报分析提供有效参考。[方法/过程]首先对涉恐基础数据进行预处理,保证图中各顶点的唯一性。通过计数统计出所有的频繁1-子图和频繁2-子图,然后不断迭代生成其他候选子图并筛选频繁子图,直到达到终止条件为止。[结果/结论]该方法根据反恐情报的特点进行了优化,避免了普通频繁子图挖掘中的大量图同构检测,挖掘出的频繁子图可以反映不同类别涉恐人员之间的联系规律和联系特点,发现暴恐案件线索,有效预测和打击恐怖活动。