Valid knowledge: the economy and the academy

The future of Western universities as public institutions is the subject of extensive continuing debate, underpinned by the issue of what constitutes valid knowledge. Where in the past only propositional knowledge codified by academics was considered valid, in the new economy enabled by information and communications technology, the procedural knowledge of expertise has become a key commodity, and the acquisition of this expertise is increasingly seen as a priority by intending university students. Universities have traditionally proved adaptable to changing circumstances, but there is little evidence to date of their success in accommodating to the scale and unprecedented pace of change of the Knowledge Economy or to the new vocationally-oriented demands of their course clients. And in addition to these external factors, internal ones are now at work. Recent developments in eLearning have enabled the infiltration of commercial providers who are cherry-picking the most lucrative subject areas. The prospect is of a fracturing higher education system, with the less adaptable universities consigned to a shrinking public-funded sector supporting less vocationally saleable courses, and the more enterprising universities developing commercial partnerships in eLearning and knowledge transfer. This paper analyses pressures upon universities, their attempts to adapt to changing circumstances, and the institutional transformations which may result. It is concluded that a diversity of partnerships will emerge for the capture and transfer of knowledge, combining expertise from the economy with the conceptual frameworks of the academy.     

教育测量的未来趋势

本文根据作者于2018年4月在纽约召开的(美国)全国教育测量学会(NCME)年会上的主席演讲稿修改而成。作者首先介绍了未来教育测量发展变化的11个可能特征、每个特征之所以重要的原因,以及应该如何看待这些变化。随后概述了未来教育测量领域不太可能发生变化的几个方面。最后对今后十年的教育发展进行了展望,并就这些发展对教育测量工作者可能产生的影响进行了讨论。     

我国小麦期货市场有效性的实证分析

主要探讨了小麦现货价格和期货价格是否存在短期均衡关系以及小麦期货市场是否有效的问题。通过定量性研究发现,我国小麦期货价格和现货价格之间不存在均衡关系;小麦期货市场不具有价格发现功能,即小麦期货市场处于无效状态。由此,针对性地对小麦期货市场的有效性提出了一些建议。     

开发股指期货的意义和策略

<证券投资基金法>的出台,有利于投资基金的发展和壮大.同时投资基金的发展与壮大,也需要股指期货的支持;另一方面,其他国家准备推出中国股指期货,势必会对中国股市产生影响.在此背景下,中国加快开发股指期货有重大的现实意义.与此同时,开发股指期货要采取必要的策略,使中国股市在规范中发展.     

What might the school of 2030 be like? An exercise in social science fiction

ABSTRACT

This article addresses the deliberately speculative question of ‘What might the school of 2030 be like?’, with a specific focus on the influences of digital technologies. The article adopts the methodological approach of ‘social science fiction’ to explore the ways in which digital technologies might be used in one Australian high school in 2030 (Lakeside), and what this might mean for the people whose lives are enmeshed with these technologies. Through the co-construction of five social science fiction ‘vignettes’ about life within Lakeside, the article considers the increasing prevalence of dataveillance, digital deskilling and the de-territorialization of schooling. The article then goes on to consider changing relationships between time/place, material and coded structures, as well as the increasingly platformized and data-driven nature of schooling in the 2020s. The article ends by considering the ways in which critical scholars can continue to use the methodological approach of social science fiction writing with regard to unpacking the politics of digital education futures.     

试论建立我国期货经纪人的责任赔偿制度

我国目前并没有建立期货经纪人责任赔偿制度，但在期货实践中，不断发生期货经纪公司与期货纪人因赔偿问题而相互推诿和损害客户合法利益的现象，建立期货经纪人责任赔偿制度可以有效地避免类似的现象发生。本就建立期货经纪人责任赔偿制度和提高期货经纪人的赔偿能力提出了自己的构想。     

基于资金限制的Sharp-ARIMA期货套期保值决策模型

通过ARIMA时间序列预测期货套期保值的资金需求量,以Sharp套期比模型为目标函数,以套保者的手头资金大于套保资金需求量为约束,建立基于资金限制的Sharp-ARIMA期货套期保值决策模型,解决基于资金限制的单品种期货套期比的确定问题。并利用WS411合约的历史数据实证分析了该模型。本模型的创新与特色一是决策模型确定了套期保值的资金需求,避免了因资金短缺导致的套保失败。二是提出了能够反映期货价格一阶平稳和季节性变化的套期保值资金需求量预测的研究思路,这就改变了现有研究仅对历史数据进行简单平均预测的现状,更加符合期货价格的波动规律。三是揭示出套期保值者手头持有的资金与套保比之间关系。     

考虑宏观变量仿射期限结构下附息债券期权定价研究

利率风险是当代经济生活中的一个越来越重要话题,债券类衍生品作为规避利率风险的主要工具受到人们的青睐。本文建立了包含通货膨胀、实际利率的动态模型,采用Kalman滤波对模型进行估计的基础上,结合Feynman-Kac定理和特征函数傅立叶变换的方法,对附息债券期权的价格进行研究并给出详细的算例演示。研究的方法和结论对中国经济环境下的投资活动和金融产品定价都具有重要的意义。     

期货套期保值决策模型的发展

期货套期保值模型的研究经历了传统全额套期保值、线性回归、线性均值-方差三个发展阶段。目前,最常用的决策模型是马柯维茨线性均值-方差模型,但该模型无法描述决策者效用的非线性特征,无法分析现货价格预期对套期保值决策的影响。基于此,有学者对非线性均值-方差模型做了初步探索。在对以往模型进行系统评述的基础上,建立了一个更为一般的非线性模型,以期能更准确地描述那些在较小风险时考虑投机,在较大风险时规避风险的决策行为。     

基于多元GARCH—VaR的期货组合保证金模型及其应用研究

提出了确定保证金的非线性风险对冲原理、整体风险覆盖原理和动态预测原理,借助多元GARCH(1,1)模型所预测出的多种期货组合的协方差矩阵,计算该期货组合的波动值,并结合风险价值(Value-at-Risk,VaR)思想,建立基于多元GARCH-VaR的多种期货合约组合市场风险评价模型,并利用该模型计算大连商品交易所多种期货合约组合的保证金.本模型的特点一是通过保证金确定的非线性风险对冲原理,利用多元GARCH(1,1)模型在预测风险时对风险进行非线性对冲,解决了SPAN和TIMS系统对组合风险的直接线性相加减,导致预测值不精确问题.二是通过整体风险覆盖原理应用VaR模型计算整体市场风险,应用VaR模型计算任意期货合约组合的整体市场风险,满足了市场监管对整体风险覆盖的需要.三是通过动态预测原理,利用多元GARCH(1,1)模型对期货组合的风险进行预测,准确反映了期货价格时间序列具有波动聚集效应和时变方差效应,保证了预测的准确性.实证结果表明,本模型在保证较高风险防范能力的基础上可降低保证金的收取水平,为期货交易市场价格波动程度的衡量及浮动式保证金的确定方法提供了新的思路.