Impact of a new mandatory reporting law on reporting and identification of child sexual abuse: A seven year time trend analysis

Child sexual abuse is widespread and difficult to detect. To enhance case identification, many societies have enacted mandatory reporting laws requiring designated professionals, most often police, teachers, doctors and nurses, to report suspected cases to government child welfare agencies. Little research has explored the effects of introducing a reporting law on the number of reports made, and the outcomes of those reports. This study explored the impact of a new legislative mandatory reporting duty for child sexual abuse in the State of Western Australia over seven years. We analyzed data about numbers and outcomes of reports by mandated reporters, for periods before the law (2006–2008) and after the law (2009–2012). Results indicate that the number of reports by mandated reporters of suspected child sexual abuse increased by a factor of 3.7, from an annual mean of 662 in the three year pre-law period to 2448 in the four year post-law period. The increase in the first two post-law years was contextually and statistically significant. Report numbers stabilized in 2010–2012, at one report per 210 children. The number of investigated reports increased threefold, from an annual mean of 451 in the pre-law period to 1363 in the post-law period. Significant decline in the proportion of mandated reports that were investigated in the first two post-law years suggested the new level of reporting and investigative need exceeded what was anticipated. However, a subsequent significant increase restored the pre-law proportion, suggesting systemic adaptive capacity. The number of substantiated investigations doubled, from an annual mean of 160 in the pre-law period to 327 in the post-law period, indicating twice as many sexually abused children were being identified.     

A new global policy regime founded on invalid statistics? Hanushek,Woessmann, PISA,and economic growth

Several recent, highly influential comparative studies have made strong statistical claims that improvements on global learning assessments such as PISA will lead to higher GDP growth rates. These claims have provided the primary source of legitimation for policy reforms championed by leading international organisations, most notably the World Bank and OECD. To date there have been several critiques but these have been too limited to challenge the validity of the claims. The consequence is continued utilisation and citation of these strong claims, resulting in a growing aura of scientific truth and concrete policy reforms. In this piece we report findings from two original studies that invalidate these statistical claims. Our intent is to contribute to a more rigorous global discussion on education policy, as well as call attention to the fact that the new global policy regime is founded on flawed statistics.     

科研人员的流动模式及其影响因素研究

[目的/意义]近年来全球范围内的科研人员流动越来越频繁,对流入国和流出国均产生较大影响。本文旨在分析全球范围内科研人员流动的模式及其影响因素。[研究设计/方法]以ORCID数据集中全球范围内的35.7万有博士学位的学者的简历(含教育背景和任职经历等)作为数据来源,从生源国、博士培养国、就业国三个层面,将学者的流动模式分为五类:A-A-A、A-A-B、A-B-B、A-B-A、A-B-C(A、B、C指不同的国家),采用多分类无序逻辑回归模型等研究方法,探讨五种流动模式的影响因素。[结论/发现]①跨国流动的科研人员占少数(近四成);②来自发达国家的科研人员中,发文量突出者或高水平论文数量突出者更倾向于跨国就业;③来自发展中国家的科研人员中,发文量虽不突出但高水平论文数量较多者更倾向于留在获取博士学位的国家就业。[创新/价值]用ORCID数据集追踪全球科研人员流动的方法具有新颖性,对科研人员流动模式及其影响因素的分析可以为我国人才发展战略提供借鉴。     

“国际影响力提升计划”对非SCI期刊的影响——以International Journal of Mining Science and Technology为例

摘 要 【目的】研究“中国科技期刊国际影响力提升计划”对受资助期刊中非SCIE期刊的影响,为各期刊顺利完成 “提升计划” 提供参考。【方法】 利用 WoS 和 JCR获取相关数据,模拟计算出各刊2013和2014年影响因子与即年指标。根据施引文献分析出各刊在WoS中的学科类别,查看其在JCR中学科内期刊排名,据此分析受资助的非SCIE期刊的国际影响力。【结果】 大部分期刊 2014 年影响因子和即年指标较 2013 年有所提升,且已超过SCIE数据库中的期刊。【结论】 多数受资助的非SCIE期刊国际影响力有所提升,有实力进入SCIE检索系统。各期刊应充分利用各种数据库分析,找准定位,提升期刊发展能力,以便能在国际上进一步提高影响力与竞争力。     

医学期刊基金论文比与影响因子等指标的关系及影响因素

摘 要 【目的】分析医学期刊基金论文比与影响因子等指标的相关关系。【方法】 选取2011年版《中文核心期刊要目总览》中数量最多的6类医学期刊（共152种）为研究对象,以2011-2014年版《中国科技期刊引证报告（核心版）》为数据来源,将两年基金论文比和影响因子等指标作为分析对象,进行Spearman相关分析。【结果】 该6类期刊的两年基金论文比与影响因子并无显著相关性（P值均大于0.05）。基金论文比与其他期刊评价指标也不完全有相关性。【结论】 基金论文比不适合作为国内期刊评价的重要指标,办刊人和期刊评价体系应该科学理性地看待基金论文比。     

“中国科技期刊国际影响力提升计划”资助期刊的影响因子贡献因素分析及启示

【目的】研究"中国科技期刊国际影响力提升计划"资助期刊2013年与2012年相比影响因子和被引频次的变化情况及影响因子贡献因素,以期为各期刊顺利完成"提升计划"提供借鉴。【方法】利用Web of Science和JCR,探讨不同类型文献、Top20%高被引论文等不同因素对这些期刊影响因子的贡献度。【结果】大部分期刊2013年影响因子较2012年有所提升,综述类文章对期刊影响因子贡献较大,高被引论文、国际论文比以及中国作者论文影响力有待提高。【结论】当前应从挖掘多文献类型、加强评审关、注重欧美论文、争取高影响力论文等4方面提升我国科技期刊国际影响力。     

高被引论文的特征因素及其对影响因子贡献研究

【目的】分析高被引论文的特征因素及测度其对影响因子的贡献度。【方法】以CSSCI数据库中新闻学与传播学领域高被引论文为研究对象,基于文献内容和外部特征,界定论文被引响应时间、研究内容新颖性和研究主题内容等七个影响论文高被引的特征因素。【结果】 60%以上的高被引论文作者具有较高影响力,高被引论文的平均响应时间不到一年,70%以上的高被引论文研究内容不具有新颖性,TOP 5%高被引论文对影响因子的贡献平均为27.12%。【结论】虽然参考文献数量与论文高被引不具有显著关联性,但高被引论文倾向于引用影响力较高的期刊,而且高被引论文对影响因子的贡献度较大。     

第三方科技评价前沿问题研究

本文着重对近年来国际上第三方科技评价在提供定量决策依据、开展过程评估、开展影响评估、有效支撑决策等方面的前沿探索进行归纳和分析,并结合中国实际,就推行第三方科技评价提供相关政策建议。     

时序回归GM-SVM模型研究

针对单一预测模型都存在各自优缺点的问题,本文提出时序回归GM-SVM模型,以达到最优的变形预测效果。首先对灰色模型中的灰参数导致的时间序列残差进行研究,形成时间序列模型,根据时间序列模型对其残差进行最优化设计,获取时间序列估计模型,并将该模型与支持向量机进行无缝融合以建立新的预测模型,然后根据该预测模型对观测的大坝变形影响因子进行训练和预测,并将预测结果与实际的变形值进行对比分析,经过实例分析确定该模型的预测结果更加接近实际观测值,说明该模型更加适用于基于大坝变形影响因子的变形分析。