面向交通运输体系构建的货运量定量预测方法研究

文中研究面向交通运输体系构建的交通货运量的定量预测方法,分别对货运量预测中常用的时间序列预测法、趋势外推预测法、相关回归预测法和灰色预测法进行了简要的介绍说明,时间序列预测法假设预测对象仅与时间有关,是对外部因素复杂作用的简化;趋势外推法比较适合中、长期预测。使用回归分析等预测方法要考虑到各种影响因素;灰色预测法多适用于近期货运量预测,对于远期预测偏差较大。     

St Francis of Assisi and Islam: A Theological Perspective on a Christian-Muslim Encounter

In 1219 an encounter took place between a Christian from Italy, Francis of Assisi, and the Muslim Sultan of Egypt, al-Malik al-Kāmil. This meeting took place at Damietta in northern Egypt during the progress of the Fifth Crusade. Over a period of perhaps three weeks, religious dialogue took place between Francis and al-Kāmil, after which time the Sultan had Francis escorted safely back to the Christian camp. It is possible to discern from the writings of Francis after his return from Egypt that the meeting had had a deep religious impact upon him, realised in the latter years of his life. It can be said that both Francis and al-Kāmil experienced through their encounter what the Christian theologian Bernard Lonergan has spoken of as a conversion into a new horizon. The historical encounter between Francis and the Sultan witnesses to the fact that through religious conversion, it is possible for members of different religious faiths to arrive at a common vision of universal peace and reconciliation.     

“Et sachiez qu’il se repenti fort quant yl y envoia” (Jean de Joinville,Vie de saint Louis). Par-delà la désillusion mongole. Mœurs et légendes “tartares” au temps du roi Saint Louis

The passage that John of Joinville, faithful companion of Louis IX, devotes to the Mongols in his chronicle of the Seventh Crusade, known as “La Vie de Saint Louis”, cross-conceives two structures under the sign of hope: historical facts and legends on the one hand, and Christian sensibilities on the other, giving way to a set of “ethnological” observations about what are presented as “barbarian” customs. The text gives a faithful reflection on sentiments which agitated the Crusaders and their King: hope and disillusion. But Joinville's testimony goes far beyond that: it is first and foremost a testimony of love upon which history could be re-written.     

SIRTUIN1介导的NIH3T3成纤维细胞昼夜节律时钟基因表达抑制的光生物调节作用

背景和目的:昼夜节律是影响运动成绩的一个重要因素。研究发现,介导运动应激的肿瘤坏死因子(tumor necrosis factor,TNF)能够抑制昼夜节律时钟基因的表达。研究了低强度810nm激光(low intensity 810 nm laserir radiation,LIL)对TNF抑制效应的调节作用。材料和方法:50%马血清休克处理NIH3T3成纤维细胞2h,同步化昼夜节律时钟基因的表达后,加入10ng/mL TNF-alpha抑制它的表达,与此同时给予20min10mW/cm2的LIL照射。36h内,每隔6h检测细胞中时钟基因Clock、Bmal1、Per2、Dbp和烟酰胺腺嘌呤二核苷酸辅酶(nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide,NAD+)依赖的组蛋白去乙酰化酶1(sirtuin1,Sirt1)的mRNA的表达及胞内NAD+和其还原形式NADH的比值NAD+/NADH。结果:TNF-alpha分别在第12h和第18h抑制了Clock(P<0.05)、第18h抑制了Bmall(P<0.05)和Dbp(P<0.005)、第18h和第30h抑制了Per2(P<0.05)及...     

黄参多糖和游泳运动对营养性肥胖小鼠血脂及瘦素水平干预的实验研究

目的通过黄参多糖(SGP)、游泳运动对采用高脂饮食建立的营养性肥胖小鼠血脂及瘦素水平进行干预,探索SGP及游泳运动的降脂减肥作用。方法本实验应用酶法测定了血清总胆固醇(TC)、甘油三酯(TG)、低密度脂蛋白(LDL-C)﹑高密度脂蛋白(HDL-C)和应用酶联免疫法(ELISA)测定了小鼠血清瘦素,称取生殖器周围脂肪质量,计算肥胖指数(Lee’s index)和脂肪系数。结果高脂组(HFD)与基础对照组(Cont)比,体质量增加,Lee’指数和脂肪系数差异达到显著,证明通过高脂饮食建立营养性肥胖模型是成功的;应用SGP或游泳运动或二者联用均能降低营养性肥胖小鼠的体质量、体脂,降低血清中TC、TG及LDL-C,升高HDL-C水平,瘦素水平也随之在减肥中发挥作用而逐渐接近正常,其中以SGP和游泳运动联用产生协同作用效果最佳,与HFD组比差异达到极显著(P<0.01)。结论 SGP或游泳运动均能使营养性肥胖小鼠降脂、减肥,尤其是二者联用效果极为明显,为其在实践中应用提供了科学依据。     

Forty years of the International Journal of Information Management: A bibliometric analysis

In 2019, the International Journal of Information Management (IJIM) celebrated its 40th year of publication. This study commemorates this event by presenting a retrospect of the journal. Using a range of bibliometric tools, we find that the journal has grown impressively in terms of publication and citation. The contributions come from all over the world, but the majority are from Europe and the United States. The journal has mostly published empirical articles, with its authors dominantly using quantitative methodology. Further, the culture of collaboration has increased among authors over the years. The journal publishes on a number of including managing information systems, information technologies and their application in business, technology acceptance among consumers, using information systems for decision making, social perspectives on knowledge management, and information research from the social science perspective. Regression analysis reveals that article attributes such as article order, methodology, presence of authors from Europe, number of references, number of keywords, and abstract length have a significant association with the citations. Finally, we find that conceptual and review articles have a positive association with citations.     

大数据对物流供应链创新发展的影响与应用对策研究

相较于物流供应链的传统技术,基于大数据技术的物流供应链呈现智能化、共生化、短链化、智慧化的发展趋势。以农产品供应链为例,分析了大数据对物流供应链创新发展的四方面主要影响,提出了大数据技术推动物流供应链创新发展的对策建议,为加快实现技术创新驱动发展提供参考。     

技术标准联盟绩效：研究主题述评与展望

归纳总结近年来国内外学者就技术标准联盟绩效的研究成果,主要从技术标准联盟的内涵与绩效、网络结构与技术标准联盟绩效、生命周期理论与技术标准联盟等关注度较高的领域对目前的研究进行梳理,并就未来研究方向进行展望.     

基于三阶段数据包络分析的全国高新技术产业开发区绩效评价

目前国内对高新区绩效的研究存在评价目标单一、评价内容模糊不清的问题.为有效评价我国高新区绩效水平,基于高新区的"高新技术"和"政府引导"两个基本内涵和多元化的功能定位,以37个国家高新区为例,运用三阶段数据包络分析(DEA)模型测算其剔除环境和随机误差前后的综合效率、纯技术效率、规模效率以及规模报酬.结果表明:我国高新区整体绩效水平良好,而高新区综合效率无效的原因主要来源于规模效率无效;运用传统DEA模型测算存在纯技术效率被低估、规模效率被高估且被低估程度大于被高估程度的问题;对于高新区绩效,市场开放程度、宏观经济情况的影响为正,而产业结构、政策支持的影响为负.为进一步优化我国高新区资源配置,提出政府有关管理部门应当重视营造良好环境,对高新区的发展科学统筹规划,并加强引导和协调等政策建议.     

欧亚一体化差异的历史考察

以欧盟为当前形态的欧洲一体化和以东盟为代表的亚洲一体化是当前区域国家协调与合作的典范,也是当代全球化趋势的时代表征。在全面审视欧盟与东盟一体化历史进程的基础上,从政治制度的相异、经济水平的悬殊、思想文化的迥异、领土争端的有无等方面,深入探究两者之间差异的致因,为当前我国合理应对其发展提供价值镜鉴。