基于组合模型的“十四五”期间中国科技人才需求预测

选用《中国统计年鉴(1999—2020)》中我国(不含港澳台地区)R&D人员全时当量数据,以2012—2019年数据构建灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,以1995—2019年数据构建时间序列模型,并将两者组合,对"十四五"期间我国的科技人才需求总量进行预测.预测结果显示,"十四五"期间科技人才需求逐年上升,科技人才的全时当量需求规模达到647.46万人年,科技人才需求端压力较大.基于预测结果,本文认为应关注科技人才的需求与供给,从人才规划、培养、管理、使用等方面保障科技人才数量积累、素质提升和充分利用.     

《民国诗话丛编》校点抉疵

《民国诗话丛编》作为古籍整理的一大工程,彰幽拯湮,功不可没。但在校点尤其是标点方面也存在一些失误,如人名、地名、书名的误标漏标,以及断句不当、文字讹误等。本文抉取其尤,分类条列指说,以期同行重视。     

《美化文学名著丛刊》的美学特征

《美化文学名著丛刊》是民国时期朱剑芒选录、上海世界书局出版的一部文言小说总集。此集收明清间文言小说名著十种,体现了五个方面的美学特征,即在情词色调上,强调“乐而不淫”、“不浓也不淡”的“中和”之美;在感觉和体验上,则讲究“有味”、“可人”的美学效果;特别是把传统道德的至善、至德作为“至美”的标准来认定和强调,更可谓深得老庄哲学和美学的三昧,是一部名副其实的美文名著。     

Evaluating item response theory linking and model fit for data from PISA 2000–2012

ABSTRACT

Based on concerns about the item response theory (IRT) linking approach used in the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) until 2012 as well as the desire to include new, more complex, interactive items with the introduction of computer-based assessments, alternative IRT linking methods were implemented in the 2015 PISA round. The new linking method represents a concurrent calibration using all available data, enabling us to find item parameters that maximize fit across all groups and allowing us to investigate measurement invariance across groups. Apart from the Rasch model that historically has been used in PISA operational analyses, we compared our method against more general IRT models that can incorporate item-by-country interactions. The results suggest that our proposed method holds promise not only to provide a strong linkage across countries and cycles but also to serve as a tool for investigating measurement invariance.     

Predicting item difficulty of science national curriculum tests: the case of key stage 2 assessments

Predicting item difficulty is highly important in education for both teachers and item writers. Despite identifying a large number of explanatory variables, predicting item difficulty remains a challenge in educational assessment with empirical attempts rarely exceeding 25% of variance explained.

This paper analyses 216 science items of key stage 2 tests which are national sampling assessments administered to 11 year olds in England. Potential predictors (topic, subtopic, concept, question type, nature of stimulus, depth of knowledge and linguistic variables) were considered in the analysis. Coding frameworks employed in similar studies were adapted and employed by two coders to independently rate items. Linguistic demands were gauged using a computational linguistic facility. The stepwise regression models predicted 23% of the variance with extended constructed questions and photos being the main predictors of item difficulty.

While a substantial part of unexplained variance could be attributed to the unpredictable interaction of variables, we argue that progress in this area requires improvement in the theories and the methods employed. Future research needs to be centred on improving coding frameworks as well as developing systematic training protocols for coders. These technical advances would pave the way to improved task design and reduced development costs of assessments.     

试题命制的科学性：结构要素及其技术规范

试题命制是考试的基础要素和关键环节,体现着考试作为测量手段的科学理性。试题的结构要素分别是刺激情境(线索材料)、设问(作答指令)、分值赋予、答案及评分标准等。试题命制的科学性指试题整体及其结构要素所涉及的情境素材、概念原理和推理论证等准确可靠,没有错误或者歧义。科学性维度的技术规范要求命题时首先明确测试的"构念",即测试要测的到底是被试哪方面的特质,"构念"相对抽象,需要在内容领域和认知能力等方面对"构念"进行分解使之具体化;基于测试"构念",考核重要的而非无关紧要的学习内容;其次要求试题刺激情境自身的合理性与科学性,要求试题的作答指令清晰明确无歧义,要求分值赋予合理,要求参考答案与评分标准精确并与情境素材保持逻辑一致。试题命制还需要关注试题的局部独立性。科学性是任何考试都必须遵循的基础性原则,试题命制自始至终都必须规避因科学性错误带来的测试偏差和风险。     

关于Directly-Riemann积分的Riemann定理的推广

在Fourier级数的收敛理论中 ,Riemann引理 (Riemann积分意义下 )起到了非常重要的作用 .在Directly_Riemann积分意义下 ,给出了Riemann定理 .即设f(x) ,g(x)是定义在 [0 ,+∞ )上非负 (D_R)可积函数 ,｜g(x)｜≤M ,对任意的区间 [0 ,A] [0 ,+∞ ) ,有∫A0g(x)dx ≤k ,则limp→+∞∫+∞0 f(x)g(px)dx =0 .     

非参数项目反应理论模型及其在教育考试中的应用

非参数项目反应理论模型包括单调均匀性模型和双单调模型。用单调均匀性模型对某英语听力考试结果研究发现,按照顺序选择法,可从16道听力试题中选出11道满足要求的试题,组成单维量表。用考生在这11道试题上的总得分对考生进行排序与按照潜质排序等效。利用双单调模型对11道听力试题组成的单维量表进行试题功能偏差研究发现,有5道试题在女生子群体中的排序与在男生子群体以及整个群体排序不同,显示女生子群体作出正确应答的概率明显高于男生子群体作出正确应答的概率。这种差异至少部分是由两个子群体听力能力上的差异引起的。     

主观题评分标准研究

本文以2006年上海市高考政治学科论述题评分标准为例,从三个方面研究如何评价主观题评分标准的优劣,即每个评分项是否具有相对独立性;根据若干评分项的结果是否能够推测出考生的综合论述的能力;每个评分项等第划分是否合理。因子分析表明该主观题四个评分项具有单维性,一个因子可以解释为考生的综合论述能力。相关分析表明四个评分项均具有相对独立性,对推测考生的综合论述能力起到了彼此独立的作用。Rasch评分量表模型分析显示,各评分项等级划分基本合理,但个别等级出现信息量不足,在此基础上,提出了改进评分标准的若干建议。     

Xn+Yn=Zn n≥3时无整数解

本文利用首创的互补开方法,来证明此定理。