不确定环境下突发事件动态应急决策研究

针对突发事件态势不断演变、多阶段、不确定性的特征,提出了一种多阶段多目标的动态应急决策方法。在定量描述了应急方案在各阶段对应急目标满足的不确定程度的基础上,运用等差数列对多阶段的时间序列权重进行了分析与求解;通过建立正、负理想点计算贴近系数,确定应急方案排序。最后,通过对突发泥石流事件进行案例分析,验证了该方法的可行性与有效性。     

环境不确定性视角下创新网络阶段性演化研究

承袭Koka关于网络演化的研究观点,首先,研究创新网络如何在环境不确定性作用下通过战略多样性这一变量实现演化,分析环境不确定性、战略多样性和创新网络演化三者之间的关系;其次,探讨在环境不确定性的规律性变化下创新网络的阶段性演化过程,将创新网络演化划分为形成、成长、成熟以及衰退四个阶段;最后,采用实证研究验证以上观点。     

常用玻璃量器测量不确定度分析报告

文章对化验室中常见的分度吸管测量的不确定度进行了评估,分析了测量过程中存在的不确定度来源,并建立了测量过程的数学模型,量化不确定度分量,求出合成不确定度和扩展不确定度。     

护士资源不确定下手术排程重调度

日常医院手术室管理最直接和最有效的方法就是进行手术排程,已研究的手术排程文献大部分是基于资源确定的情形,在实际医院运作过程中存在资源的不确定的情况,如护士的缺席,从而导致既定手术排程的不可行性,手术排程重调度可以解决资源不确定下手术排程问题。文章主要研究一天手术排程过程护士资源缺席情形下手术排程的重调度问题,建立了重调度模型,采用基于pareto解集的蚁群算法求解护士资源不确定下手术排程重调度模型。案例计算结果显示,手术排程重调度解在提高的病人满意度的同时,具有较低的手术室成本和合理的资源安排,为护士资源不确定的手术排程问题的研究提供了一种新的思路。     

依据新规范对柔肤水相对密度的不确定度评定

目的：院建立密度瓶法测定柔肤水相对密度不确定度评定的方法。方法院依据JJF1059.1-2012《测量不确定度评定与表示》,采用GB/T 13531.4要2013《化妆品通用检验方法相对密度的测定》,建立测量模型,绘制不确定度来源因果图,对检测过程中引入的不确定度进行了分类和量化,得到扩展不确定度U=0.0002。结果院柔肤水相对密度测定结果表示为1.0097±0.0002。结论院研究为相对密度测定的不确定度评定提供参考依据。     

Life Securitisation,the Event Object of Insurance and the Strategisation of Time

Understanding the matter of insurability as a problem of governing uncertainty has led to thinking ‘the event’ as the object of insurance. How the event is understood and conceptualized determines to a great extent the ways in which its related uncertainty will be rendered. This, in turn, will determine how such uncertainty will be managed. Although this idea has been widely explored with important nuances by various scholars, what has not been discussed in great detail is the problematic idea of temporality and the role time plays in helping constitute the event object of insurance. Such a problem is of great relevance for pushing forward the debate on the limits of insurability. The empirical cases used in this article, Swiss Re's Vita and Kortis, launched and developed during the last decade, relate to hedging the exposure of life and health insurance portfolios to events that would generate excess mortality and excess vitality. The schemes, as explored here, are not simply actuarial, although actuarial practice still figures prominently in their crafting. They involve the strategic articulation of varied forms of knowledge that enshrine particular understandings of time and produce the truth-base of insurable events.     

The scope of external information-seeking under uncertainty: An individual-level study

As a first attempt to empirically investigate the scope of external information-seeking under uncertainty, this paper examines the direct and interactive effects of task uncertainty on the scope of external information-seeking. Search depth and breadth are the two components of the scope of external information-seeking in defining an individual's external information search strategy. The empirical results show that at the source portfolio level, task uncertainty exhibits positive effects on both the depth and breadth of external information-seeking. It is also found that there is a positive relationship between task uncertainty and depth-first propensity, which is defined as a seeker's propensity to acquire information through increasing search depth instead of through widening search breadth at the source portfolio level. Furthermore, the results show that the positive relationship between task uncertainty and depth-first propensity in external information-seeking is stronger when perceived source accessibility is low than when it is high. This study makes a contribution to the information-seeking literature by helping us understand how task uncertainty and source characteristics shape an individual's external information-seeking at the level of source portfolio and providing evidence of the task-source fit perspective in explaining information-seeking behaviour under uncertainty at the source portfolio level.     

电流互感器负荷箱测量结果不确定度评定

文章通过实例对电流互感器负荷箱标准装置的示值误差不确定度进行了分析和评定。     

运动技术发展的特征、不确定性与竞技体育制度安排

运动技术发展从本质上讲,就是通过竞技体育制度安排来减少运动技术发展过程中的不确定性,从而获得优异的运动成绩.正是在这个意义上,我们说运动技术发展,是人们在一定竞技体育制度安排的约束和激励下,寻求更有效率地获得运动成绩的方式,并在有序竞争中实现的.     

电子束实验仪测荷质比及其测量结果的不确定度评定

介绍了利用电子束实验仪进行电子荷质比的测定的磁聚焦实验原理。并对测量结果进行了不确定度评定。结果表明，准确测定聚焦时的励磁电流值是做好该实验的关键。