基于条件价值法的武夷山风景名胜区遗产资源非使用价值评估

武夷山是我国4个世界文化与自然双遗产地之一,武夷山风景名胜区作为遗产地内文化和自然遗产资源最为集中、开发最早的对外旅游窗口,其遗产资源价值高,在武夷山双遗产地中具有重要地位。运用条件价值法对武夷山风景名胜区受访者支付意愿与非使用价值进行评估。结果表明:在考虑不确定性因素影响下,2009年武夷山风景名胜区受访游客人均支付价值为29.67元/年。收入、学历、对旅游的热爱程度、遗产保护意识4个受访者特征变量在各分组水平下的支付意愿存在显著差异(p0.05);性别、年龄无显著差异(p0.05)。收入越高、学历越高、对旅游的热爱程度及遗产保护意识越强烈的受访游客有更高的支付意愿;而性别、年龄与支付意愿不相关。     

经济政策不确定性对中国碳排放的对称与非对称影响

在全球经济快速转型背景下,经济政策不确定性（EPU）的影响已渗入到生产生活的各个领域,正确认识经济政策不确定性带来的环境风险对“双碳目标”实现至关重要。本文基于非对称传导效应视角,采用2003—2017年中国30个省份面板数据,实证检验EPU在长短期对碳排放的对称与非对称影响,并基于经济发展水平展开异质性分析,构建中介效应模型分析EPU上升、下降对碳排放影响的作用机制。研究表明：①EPU对碳排放短期存在非对称影响,长期存在对称影响。在短期,EPU上升显著影响碳排放,而EPU下降对碳排放影响不明显。在长期,两者呈负相关的线性关系,EPU下降促进碳排放。②EPU对碳排放的影响因经济发展水平不同而具有明显区域异质性。在短期,EPU变化对东部地区作用不显著,对中、西部地区作用显著,并表现出非对称影响;在长期,东部地区仅有EPU下降会增加碳排放,中、西部地区EPU与碳排放呈现负相关的线性关系。③碳排放在不同区域受到EPU冲击后的调整速度不同,东部地区的自我调节能力高于中、西部地区,能更迅速地调整并稳定碳排放水平。④EPU对碳排放的影响主要通过经济效应表现,EPU上升通过抑制经济增长活力导致碳排放降低,EPU下降通过加快经济增长速度导致碳排放增加。未来,政府应审慎调整经济政策,健全和完善市场信息披露体系并充分发挥地区比较优势助推新兴产业发展。     

Risk assessment based on fault tree analysis for damaged pipe repair during operation in petrochemical plant

In petrochemical plant, the in-operation repairing is usually a repairing strategy with pressured inoperation repairing for avoiding huge economic losses caused by unplanned shutdown when some slight local leakage happens in pipes. This paper studies the effects of repairing strategies on the failure probability of the pipe systems in process industries based on the time-average fault tree approach, especially the in-operation repairing strategies including pressured in-operation repairing activities. The fault tree model can predict the effect of different repairing plans on the pipe failure probability, which is significant to the optimization of the repairing plans. At first pipes are distinguished into four states in this model, i.e., successive state, flaw state, leakage state and failure state. Then the fault tree approach, which is usually applied in the studies of dynamic equipment, is adopted to model the pipe failure. Moreover, the effect of pressured in-operation repairing is also considered in the model. In addition, this paper proposes a series of time-average parameters of the fault tree model, all of which are used to calculate node parameters of the fault tree model. At last, a practical case is calculated based on the fault tree model in a repairing activity of pipe thinning.     

How can clusters sustain performance? The role of network strength, network openness, and environmental uncertainty

This paper draws on social network theory to develop a model of regional cluster performance. We suggest that high performing regional clusters are underpinned by (1) network strength and (2) network openness, but that the effects of these on the performance of a cluster as a whole are moderated by environmental uncertainty. Specifically, the positive effects of network openness on cluster performance tend to increase as environmental uncertainty increases, while the positive effects of network strength on cluster performance tend to decrease as environmental uncertainty increases. Our findings have theoretical and practical implications for social network research in general, and cluster research in particular.     

不确定环境下组织间信任与合作创新绩效研究

管理者如何在不确定环境下管理好组织间信任模式,继而提升企业合作创新绩效成为企业面临的现实问题。本文基于战略决策视角分析不确定环境下组织间信任对合作创新绩效的影响机制。研究结果显示,组织间计算信任与关系信任对企业间合作创新绩效的影响具有差异性,具体表现为组织间计算信任能显著提升企业间合作创新绩效,组织间关系信任与企业间合作创新绩效间呈倒U型非线性关系,且关系信任的合作创新激励效应强于计算信任。进一步,市场不确定正向调节关系信任与合作创新关系,负向调节计算信任与合作创新关系。行为不确定负向调节关系信任与合作创新关系,正向调节计算信任与合作创新关系。本文丰富了供应链网络下组织间信任与企业创新发展相关理论研究,为企业在不确定环境下管理合作信任模式提供借鉴与指导。     

企业绿色创新驱动因素研究——基于资源型企业的实证

侧重于外部商业环境对企业绿色创新的影响,提出了企业绿色创新的5个驱动因素。以资源型企业为样本,在137份有效问卷的基础上,运用SPSS17.0软件及逐步多元回归方法实证检验了驱动效果。结果表明利益相关者的压力、外部网络支撑、创新的不确定性、政策预期和管理者的机会感知会渐次影响到企业的绿色创新,共解释了绿色创新变动的58.1%。将绿色创新划分为产品、过程和管理3种表现,按照驱动难度由小到大依次为管理、产品和过程。     

不确定性视阈下我国民办高等教育发展的政策调整

不确定性是客观世界的内在本性。不确定性问题是关于事物相互联系尤其是因果联系的一种哲学研究。近30年来,尽管我国民办高等教育实现了跨越式发展,但依然存在着生存基础的不稳定性、制度供给的非连续性和社会认知的模糊性等不确定性因素。因此,在不确定性视阈下,我国政府应该在稳固民办高等教育的生存基础、增加制度供给以及提高社会认同等方面作出相应的政策调整。     

一维谐振子不确定关系的变分推导法

用基于普遍形式的不确定关系之上的变分方法推出了一维谐振子的含有量子数的等式型不确定关系。给初学者介绍这样简单明了的东西,可以有效地加深他们对不确定关系的理解,并且避免形成不确定关系只能表述为不等式形式这种错误观念。     

Examining the moderating effect of individual-level cultural values on users’ acceptance of E-learning in developing countries: a structural equation modeling of an extended technology acceptance model

In this study, we examine the effects of individual-level culture on the adoption and acceptance of e-learning tools by students in Lebanon using a theoretical framework based on the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM). To overcome possible limitations of using TAM in developing countries, we extend TAM to include subjective norms (SN) and quality of work life constructs as additional constructs and a number of cultural variables as moderators. The four cultural dimensions of masculinity/femininity (MF), individualism/collectivism, power distance and uncertainty avoidance were measured at the individual level to enable them to be integrated into the extended TAM as moderators and a research model was developed based on previous literature. To test the hypothesised model, data were collected from 569 undergraduate and postgraduate students using e-learning tools in Lebanon via questionnaire. The collected data were analysed using the structural equation modelling technique in conjunction with multi-group analysis. As hypothesised, the results of the study revealed perceived usefulness (PU), perceived ease of use (PEOU), SN and quality of work life to be significant determinants of students’ behavioural intention (BI) towards e-learning. The empirical results also demonstrated that the relationship between SN and BI was particularly sensitive to differences in individual-cultural values, with significant moderating effects observed for all four of the cultural dimensions studied. Some moderating effects of culture were also found for both PU and PEOU, however, contrary to expectations the effect of quality of work life was not found to be moderated by MF as some previous authors have predicted. The implications of these results to both theory and practice are explored in the paper.     

流域水资源适应性管理研究

不确定性是流域水资源管理取得成功的巨大障碍,而适应性管理是目前有效处理不确定性问题的管理模式。根据适应性管理研究情况,在分析流域水资源管理不确定性问题基础上,提出用适应性管理模式解决这类问题,为流域水资源管理研究提供一个有效可行的方法。