What drives US competitiveness in mathematics and science?

The Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) shows that US school students have a lower level of achievement than students from many East Asian countries. Therefore, media, researchers and policy‐makers in the United States have often argued that US competitiveness in mathematics and science will decline. This paper aims at verifying this conclusion by analysing data on medallists at the International Olympiads for high school students. The analysis suggests that US competitiveness may not be endangered.