Foresight analysis in research funding agencies: A UK experiment

Strategic planning and priority-setting have become inevitable for UK research funding agencies in the 1990's. But it is an activity which is viewed with some suspicion by the scientific community, in which it is an aphorism that discovery cannot be planned. There is considerable interest therefore, in the promise offoresight analysis as an alternative to conventional strategic planning. Most previous experience with foresight has been at a macro level, with a focus on national direction-setting. But what role can foresight have at amicro level; how can it help individual funding agencies develop strategies for specific scientific fields? This paper explores the problem by describing an experiment, supported jointly by three UK funding agencies, to apply foresight techniques in a review of a single field (cardiovascular research). The methodology developed for objective consultation with scientists and users is described, and preliminary results presented. Science-push and demand-pull factors emerged clearly, aa did a desire within the scientific community for a number of infrastructural changes to strengthen the future of the field. The study has shown that systematic surveys of users and researchers are capable of detecting coherent views on a number of issues that are relevant to forward planning in research funding agencies. The paper concludes by summarising the limitations of this approach to strategic planning, and presenting some general lessons that may be useful for consideration in other micro-level foresight exercises.     

Why are there virtually no mandatory open access policies at American universities?

Key points

• U.S. university OA policies are far less mandatory than those in the U.K.
• The waiver clauses in U.S. university policies make it easy for authors to decline making their articles OA.
• The relative autonomy – and competitiveness – of U.S. universities may be the reason for weaker OA policies.
• OA in the U.S. is likely to be driven by government funding agency policies rather than by academia.

     

Prediction assessments: Using video-based predictions to assess prospective teachers’ knowledge of students’ mathematical thinking

In order to evaluate the effectiveness of an experimental elementary mathematics field experience course, we have designed a new assessment instrument. These video-based prediction assessments engage prospective teachers in a video analysis of a child solving mathematical tasks. The prospective teachers build a model of that child’s mathematics and then use that model to predict how the child will respond to a subsequent task. In this paper, we share data concerning the evolution and effectiveness of the instrument. Results from implementation indicate moderate to high degrees of inter-rater reliability in using the rubric to assess prospective teachers’ models and predictions. They also indicate strong correlation between participation in the experimental course and prospective teachers’ performances on the video-based prediction assessments. Such findings suggest that prediction assessments effectively evaluate the pedagogical content knowledge that we are seeking to foster among the prospective teachers.     

Child sexual abuse and bulimic symptomatology: relevance of specific abuse variables

OBJECTIVE: This study examined specific aspects of child sexual abuse in relation to symptom severity among hospitalized patients diagnosed with bulimia nervosa. METHOD: Participants were 45 hospitalized bulimic women who reported a history of child sexual abuse. Structured interviews were conducted in order to obtain detailed information regarding specific features of the abusive event(s). Participants also completed instruments that measured depression and eating pathology. RESULTS: There were no significant differences in severity of depression or eating disturbance among women reporting differing abusive experiences including intrafamilial versus extrafamilial abuse, abuse with or without the use of physical force, one versus multiple incidents, early abuse versus abuse occurring after age 14, contact versus noncontact abuse, disclosed versus undisclosed, and combined physical/sexual abuse versus sexual abuse alone. CONCLUSION: The specific characteristics of child sexual abuse are not related to the level of symptomatology for hospitalized bulimic patients. This study suggests that differences in the nature of the abuse may not be as important as the fact that the abuse occurred in the first place.